August 2020:

[tropiKal]

Looks like a potentially interesting storm ahead.

[srainhoutx]

It sure feels like an early Fall day here in the Smokey Mountains. It was 56 this morning with very low humidity and a light northerly breeze. Currently we have 73 this afternoon. The weather is perfect for friends visiting from Houston!

[cperk]

Invest 97L up to 30/70 chance of development.

[cperk]

It sure feels like an early Fall day here in the Smokey Mountains. It was 56 this morning with very low humidity and a light northerly breeze. Currently we have 73 this afternoon. The weather is perfect for friends visiting from Houston!

I am so jealous.

[Scott747]

With how the models have been performing this year I dare say there is actually something that resembles consistency.

A developing TC in the NW Caribbean with a heading generally towards the BoC or Western Gulf.

For 'now' the conditions in the Gulf only look marginally conducive for strengthening.

[Scott747]

Decent ensemble support from both the operational and para GFS. Solutions range from northern Mexico to central Louisiana.

[Cpv17]

Decent ensemble support from both the operational and para GFS. Solutions range from northern Mexico to central Louisiana.

The NHC is giving 97L a 70% chance of development and is saying a depression is likely to form in the NW Caribbean later this week. I think there’s a good chance we’ll see at least a tropical storm from this in the Gulf this weekend. Right now the system over in the EPAC could be the only thing holding it back from exploding. SST’s in the Gulf are in the mid to upper 80’s but there could be a lot of shear from the EPAC system.

[Rip76]

I’m hoping 97L isn’t a Harvey type thing. Same week.

[DoctorMu]

Invest 97L up to 30/70 chance of development.

Yeah, 97L is poised to be bathing in Gulf bath water this weekend. All eyes on for potential significant tropical event.

[DoctorMu]

I’m hoping 97L isn’t a Harvey type thing. Same week.

I just had that same passing dreadful thought.

[DoctorMu]

Decent ensemble support from both the operational and para GFS. Solutions range from northern Mexico to central Louisiana.

The NHC is giving 97L a 70% chance of development and is saying a depression is likely to form in the NW Caribbean later this week. I think there’s a good chance we’ll see at least a tropical storm from this in the Gulf this weekend. Right now the system over in the EPAC could be the only thing holding it back from exploding. SST’s in the Gulf are in the mid to upper 80’s but there could be a lot of shear from the EPAC system.

97L could be a strong tropical system or even CAT 1 strength before passing over the Yucatan and then into the GOM. Potentially blocking ridge to the north. Deja vu all over again...

[Cpv17]

Decent ensemble support from both the operational and para GFS. Solutions range from northern Mexico to central Louisiana.

The NHC is giving 97L a 70% chance of development and is saying a depression is likely to form in the NW Caribbean later this week. I think there’s a good chance we’ll see at least a tropical storm from this in the Gulf this weekend. Right now the system over in the EPAC could be the only thing holding it back from exploding. SST’s in the Gulf are in the mid to upper 80’s but there could be a lot of shear from the EPAC system.

97L could be a strong tropical system or even CAT 1 strength before passing over the Yucatan and then into the GOM. Potentially blocking ridge to the north. Deja vu all over again...

Yes, but the faster it gets its act together, the more likely it is to go more towards NOLA or over towards the FL Panhandle. If it waits to get its act together till it’s in the Gulf, the more likely it’ll be a problem for Texas. The stronger the storm is early on, the more likely it’ll feel the splitting of the trough off to its north and get sucked up. The scary thing that concerns me the most right now is that if it goes towards us, steering currents look pretty weak over the western Gulf/SETX.

[sambucol]

I read at another forum that Bastardi says 97L has Harvey and Brett similarities. Don’t know what those are. Maybe the track?

[Cromagnum]

NWS has pretty much axed all chances of rain for my area. I have a measly 20% on Friday now with 0 predicted all other days.

[Cromagnum]

Also saw where the NHC really amped up their forecast.

The updated outlook calls for 19-25 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater), of which 7-11 will become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater), including 3-6 major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater). This update covers the entire six-month hurricane season, which ends Nov. 30, and includes the nine named storms to date.

[Scott747]

Interesting days ahead with the continuing back and forth on the models, specifically the GFS. 18z ensembles backed off with the operational runs and most of the energy towards N Mexico.

12 Euro was inline with the other modeling and a sharp nw movement across the YP and flattening out towards N Mexico and the lower Texas coast.

Despite the tepid results in the models the NHC continues to increase the chances of tc formation as it gets into the NW Caribbean. By then we will have a better idea on the eventual track.

[tropiKal]

I’m hoping 97L isn’t a Harvey type thing. Same week.

I'm hoping it is, much better than constant sunshine that ends up bringing drought.

[Cromagnum]

I’m hoping 97L isn’t a Harvey type thing. Same week.

I'm hoping it is, much better than constant sunshine that ends up bringing drought.

Devastating floods are better than being hot and dry? Okay.....

[Scott747]

Hurricane models are finally running for 97l.

6z HMON has a moderate to strong TS in the Western Gulf on Monday moving wnw towards the middle Texas coast.

[Scott747]

6z HWRF with a 967 hurricane moving towards Gulfport on Monday.

Still plenty of spread throughout the models.