July 2020

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Kingwood36
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Hey guys I need yalls expert weather advice. You think I would be able to dodge 92L cause I am gonna fly to ft Lauderdale on Saturday evening.
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DoctorMu
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jasons2k wrote: Tue Jul 28, 2020 3:55 pm Warning just went up for the BCS. Hopefully Dr. Mu doesn’t get anything too severe up there.
haha You know it's bad, when a Severe Weather Warning is almost welcome!

1.1 inches of delicious rain. No fences down. Everything's good.
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tireman4
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00
FXUS64 KHGX 291118
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
618 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020

.AVIATION...
IFR ceilings over NW TAF sites will mix out early this morning
with generally VFR conditions for the rest of the day. Daytime
heating will trigger scattered showers and storms with development
expected between 16-19z near the coast and then moving inland.
Precip will wane around 00z with skies clearing. A mix of MVFR/VFR
cigs will develop after 09z, mainly affecting NW TAF sites. 43


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2020/

SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)

Radar is quiet this morning with generally clear skies to start
the day. High pressure is over the eastern Gulf with lower
pressure over West Texas. PW values remain on the high side and
satellite derived values remain between 2.00 and 2.20 inches.
Daytime heating is expected to foster scattered showers and
thunderstorms later today. Convective temperatures are warmer
today than yesterday so not expecting much development this
morning. Convective temperatures today are between 89 and 92
degrees. Fcst soundings show some weak capping in the 850-700 mb
layer as well. Precipitation coverage today will be considerably
less than yesterday but scattered activity should increase in
coverage around noon. High temperatures will also be warmer than
yesterday as 850 temps warm a bit and there will be more sunshine
and precip will start later. MaxT values will warm into the lower
and middle 90`s areawide.

Any remaining showers will end around sunset and some drier air
will move into the region. PW values will fall to between 1.60 and
1.80 inches by Thursday morning. The moisture profile on Thursday
looks dry and most of the area will remain dry. Will carry slight
chance for showers along the coast/bay in case a few showers pop
up along the sea breeze. MaxT values will warm into the lower 90`s
coast, mid 90`s central and upper 90`s far west. Low level
moisture has increased due to recent rains and coupled with sfc
temps in the mid 90`s will yield heat index values between 102-106
degrees. 43

LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Wednesday]...

We`ll begin the long term period with subtle chances of rain as the
upper level high pressure shifts east into Southeast CONUS in
response to an upper level trough expanding south and eastward
across the Great Plains (somewhat meandering along this general area
through Saturday). Along the surface, a cold frontal boundary will
move into Northern TX and result in an unsettled weather pattern for
portions of OK and Northern/Central TX. As the day progresses
Friday, local temperatures will be rising into the mid to upper 90s
with storms developing to our north possibly making their way into
the northern sectors of Southeast TX. According to the latest model
guidance, these storms could be entering the northern counties
Friday afternoon and are expected to expand southward across the
rest of the CWA Friday night into Saturday. Another upper level
trough over the Saskatchewan and Manitoba Canada region will dig
south into the north central CONUS region late Friday into Saturday.
This feature will gradually merge into the stagnant trough over the
weekend, somewhat broadening/strengthening it. Locally, drier air
behind the line of Friday and Saturday`s storms will help limit rain
development over our local area on Sunday. Temperatures during the
weekend will also be a few degrees lower, but should remain in the
90s. Highs on Monday are expected bounce back to the mid to upper
90s.

On Monday, a weak shortwave embedded within the main trough will
swing southeastward into Northern TX and could lead to unsettled
weather pattern over Northern and Central TX. Models once again
bring this activity southward, reaching the northern portions of
Southeast TX sometime late Monday afternoon into Tuesday. If this
scenario does play out, temperatures could be slightly cooler than
what the forecast currently has. There are some inconsistencies
present between the models, therefore, only added low chance of PoPs
and kept a similar temperature trend as the previous forecast. 24

MARINE...

High pressure over the eastern Gulf and lower pressures over West
Texas will maintain a light to moderate onshore flow through
early Friday. the sfc high near FL will shift west and be located
over the central Gulf by Friday. The pressure gradient will relax
and lighter winds expected late Thursday into Friday. A weak cool
front/outflow boundary will approach the area Friday night. The
boundary is expected to stall inland but sfc winds may veer to the
W-SW in response to this feature and a slight northward position
of the sfc high. A weak surface high will develop over the western
Gulf on Sunday and remain over the western Gulf through early
next week. A light flow is expected with a weak land breeze during
the late night/early morning and a weak sea breeze in the
afternoon/early evening.

Water levels are running 1.0 - 1.2 feet higher than normal and
levels could reach 3.2 feet at times of high tide Thursday
through Saturday. No significant impacts are expected. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 96 77 96 77 98 / 20 20 10 10 30
Houston (IAH) 93 78 95 77 95 / 40 40 20 0 20
Galveston (GLS) 90 83 91 83 91 / 30 30 10 0 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...99
Aviation/Marine...99
Cpv17
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Kingwood36 wrote: Tue Jul 28, 2020 5:15 pm Hey guys I need yalls expert weather advice. You think I would be able to dodge 92L cause I am gonna fly to ft Lauderdale on Saturday evening.
Lots of rain.
Cpv17
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We’re getting our second round of heavy rain here at my job in Rosenberg right now. Been watching the radar and haven’t had anything but light rain at my house in Wharton today.
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jasons2k
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DoctorMu wrote: Tue Jul 28, 2020 9:31 pm
jasons2k wrote: Tue Jul 28, 2020 3:55 pm Warning just went up for the BCS. Hopefully Dr. Mu doesn’t get anything too severe up there.
haha You know it's bad, when a Severe Weather Warning is almost welcome!

1.1 inches of delicious rain. No fences down. Everything's good.
Glad you finally got a nice rain! Looks like most everyone is getting some rain today!
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jasons2k
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.27” here so far today. My digital gauge is definitely busted. It keep holding steady at .02” with light rain under calm winds - like the bucket inside just won’t tip.
cperk
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I was lucky enough to get a good downpour that gave me another inch. :D
redneckweather
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I've gotten 1/4" out of all the rain that's been around going back to last Friday. Literally feel like I'm the middle of a donut.
Cpv17
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redneckweather wrote: Wed Jul 29, 2020 4:33 pm I've gotten 1/4" out of all the rain that's been around going back to last Friday. Literally feel like I'm the middle of a donut.
Wow, that’s even worse luck than Jason. That’s really bad!
Cpv17
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Just got home from work and checked the gauge. Ended up with a quarter inch today bringing my total to 4.55” since last Wednesday.
Cpv17
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Well guys it looks like we’ll be back in the oven for a couple days. Rain comes back Saturday.
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jasons2k
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I expected today to be a little drier but wow. The radar shows nothing.
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DoctorMu
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50% chance on NOAA
80% TWC for rain chances tomorrow. surprising.

GFS did sniff this front out over a week ago IIRC.

Pops have been increased since pm disco.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2020/

DISCUSSION...

Today has been warmer and drier than past days as we see a short
break in our recent active weather pattern in Southeast Texas. The
emphasis there should be on short, as a weak cold front looks to
sag southward towards our area later tomorrow. It could be as
early as mid-day Friday that we start to see rain and storms
on/ahead of this front start to push in from the north, but things
will probably hold off until late Friday afternoon or Friday
evening. If the front remains strong enough and/or the timing with
daily heating is right, some storms north of Houston could be
strong, with a severe storm or two in the mix.

The front will continue to sag southward on Saturday before
washing out, but continued active weather is likely to persist
into the first half of next week. As next week grows older,
eventually an upper ridge will build in from the west, giving us a
trend towards higher temperatures and less rain.

SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

The radar, satellite, and well, the window appear noticeably
different from recent days. Though the cloud streets over much of
Southeast Texas indicate at least a little bit of low level
instability, especially paired with the small, isolated showers
here and there. However, this instability is definitely disrupted,
given that the cloud streets have never really been continuous,
and the day cloud phase RGB satellite imagery shows that even when
showers develop, we are not seeing deep, sustained convection to
kick off more significant clusters of storms.

With the decreased cloudiness and rain, temperatures have also
risen higher. We`ve still got an hour or two left of decent
insolation, so while there`s still a short window left for further
convection, things should start to wind down in not too long, with
clouds dissipating this evening. We should continue to look for
the typical nocturnal development of low clouds closer to dawn,
and while we might see some streamer showers as well, GOES
precipitable water at the coast is relatively low.

The big question for tomorrow is...what does the incoming front
from the north mean for us? Given that this is a fairly
unseasonable event, things are going to depend very strongly on
just how strong this front holds, and the timing of when it
arrives. Also, assuming some organized convection develops in
North Texas on the front, how does that cluster`s cold pool impact
things? Because of this, uncertainty is greater than typical for a
front, and thus...I`m likely to be a little more hand-wavy than
usual here, as the skill in forecasting important mesoscale
details is just not really there right now.

Amongst the deterministic guidance, the GFS is probably fastest
and strongest, pushing farther, lasting longer before washing out,
and generating the most widespread precip. The Euro is a bit
weaker and maybe a little slower. The NAM is slowest and gives us
the least coverage in rain, but does generate higher amounts in
convection where it does fire. Usually I kind of like the NAM,
just because its greater vertical resolution helps it handle
shallower cold fronts better than the globals. But...if we do see
a linear convective system on the front, it`s cold pool should
enhance that boundary, which I would think would happen if the NAM
bursts strong convection. Ultimately, the difference is not huge,
so the official forecast is roughly a multi-model ensemble mean,
with PoPs beginning to perk up in Houston county as early as mid-
day tomorrow, but not really showing strong likelihood for rain
until the late afternoon and evening.

Though the greater severe threat is likely north of our area, the
environment should be unstable enough to delay the degradation of
any strong convective system and provide a marginal threat for
damaging winds or even some small hail north of Houston. Those
winds, as well as periods of heavy rain, are expected to be the
main threats. But as we head into the overnight hours...there will
some decrease in activity with loss of heating and other
stabilizing factors.

LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]...

Still not a lot of consensus on how far south this line will
slide before stalling, but will keep with the previous trend with
higher POPs generally along and south of I-10 during the day on
Sat. Rain chances should be moderating a bit by Sun as this
surface boundary continues to weaken and the slightly drier air
filters further down the CWFA toward the coast. With the upper
trof axis lingering over the region into the start of next week,
it`s hard to argue against the idea of additional shortwaves
moving in from the N/NW for that time frame. While timing is going
to be the main issue, the better chances should be during the day
Mon/Tue with heating and whatnot. Did keep with the previous
thinking of tapering POPs even lower by the middle of next week as
long-range guidance is hinting that the upper ridge is set to
begin building into the state from the west.

MARINE...

Onshore flow tonight looks to be less intense as high pressure
ridges into the area. A weak boundary is expecting to advect into
the region starting Friday night but not looking at the coastal
waters being effected until late Saturday, with winds becoming more
westerly. Evening onshore flow will be slight if any, but is
expecting to return Tuesday evening with high pressure in the gulf.
Seas begin at 2-3ft and subside into the weekend down to 2ft in the
coastal and offshore waters. By Tuesday, seas subside even more to
only 1-2ft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 76 97 75 96 74 / 10 40 40 20 10
Houston (IAH) 78 95 78 93 78 / 10 30 40 40 20
Galveston (GLS) 82 91 80 91 80 / 10 10 30 40 30
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 311152
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
652 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

The IFR ceilings that CLL and UTS and MVFR ceilings at CXO down
the HOU will scattered out by mid morning with VFR ceilings
continuing through the day. A line of showers and thunderstorms is
expected to push through the region this afternoon bringing VCTS
to TAF sites through this evening. Then a second line of showers
and thunderstorms will move through this evening and overnight
thats associated with a weak cold front. Winds will become
northerly with the frontal passage. MVFR CIGs will again be
possible tonight, but then VFR conditions expected during the day
tomorrow.

Fowler

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 421 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020/...

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday]...

As of 4AM, a weak cold front is located along the TX/OK border
that is producing some showers and thunderstorms north of DFW.
Outflow from these storms may trigger some light rain showers in
Houston, Madison, and Trinity counties by sunrise. The front
located to the north will be making its way southward through the
day today bringing us a chance of thunderstorms - with the
potential for some stronger thunderstorms. The front is expected
to reach the northern counties in the late morning, then slowly
make its way towards I-10 by the mid afternoon to evening. It will
continue to move its way towards the coast overnight, but it will
weaken even further as it does so. The thunderstorms will have
some fuel to work with this afternoon as CAPE values will be in
the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range with 0-3 km lapse rates of around 6 to
7 C/km. While not the most conductive set up for strong to severe
thunderstorms, there may be some isolated strong thunderstorms
this afternoon producing some strong gusts. The SPC has basically
everything north of I-10 in a Marginal Risk for Severe
thunderstorms this afternoon. The threat diminishes south of I-10
because of the weakening front, and because by the time its there
the sun has set and the lack of daytime heating will limit
thunderstorm development. Overnight tonight, there may be some
lingering showers and thunderstorms over the coastal counties, but
overall most of the precipitation will be off the coast.

This front is expected to stall over the northern Gulf coast on
Saturday, but guidance has it very weak and barely existent over
SE Texas. So, expect mainly diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms through the weekend with the higher chances near the
coast where that boundary may provide a little bit extra lift.
Shower activity on Sunday is expected to be very isolated as high
pressure begins to build across the Gulf.

Temperatures through the short term will be fairly consistent.
Highs in the afternoons in the mid to upper 90s inland and upper
80s to low 90s along the coast. BCS area on Sunday may get into
the triple digits as higher heights begin to stretch into the
area. Lows temperatures through the weekend will be in the mid to
upper 70s.

Fowler


.LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

A broad long wave trough over the Great Lakes will extend into Texas
through Tuesday. A weak upper level disturbance will slide into the
state on Monday and could bring scattered showers and thunderstorms
to the area on Monday afternoon. At the surface, a weak cold front
will move into North Texas and slowly move into SE TX pulling up
stationary over the area (near I-10). The front will likely serve as
a focus for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms on
Tuesday. Some differences between the GFS and the EC as the the
ECMWF is deeper with the upper trough and further south with the sfc
front. Have leaned toward the EC as it is supported by the Canadian
model.

The upper level trough begins to shift east on Tuesday as an upper
level ridge over the southern Rockies amplifies and expands into
West Texas. The upper ridge will be centered over West Texas by
Thursday morning but 500 mb heights only build to around 592 dm.
Ridging should suppress rain chances toward the end of the week but
the minimally higher heights don`t support a huge warm up. Will keep
MaxT values in the mid/upper 90`s. Drier air aloft will mix to the
surface each afternoon so heat index values look modest rising to
between 98-103 degrees each afternoon. 43


.MARINE...

Expect light onshore flow through the day today with some isolated
streamer showers in the morning hours. A weak cold front will move
into the Gulf waters overnight tonight bringing increased chances of
showers and thunderstorms, but the front is expected to be very weak
by the time it gets to the Gulf. Because of this, there will not be
a strong wind shift with the boundary passage. The boundary is
expected to stall over the Gulf waters through the day on Saturday
continuing the higher chances of precipitation.

High pressure builds in over the northern Gulf on Sunday and it will
remain through the week. So, expected continued onshore flow, low
seas, and low chance of precipitation through the week.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 95 75 96 74 98 / 40 30 20 10 20
Houston (IAH) 95 77 94 77 96 / 20 40 40 20 30
Galveston (GLS) 89 80 89 81 92 / 10 40 40 20 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$
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jasons2k
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Well it’s 97F here with a dew point of 77F. Surely that’s enough energy to get things cranking later on.
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jasons2k
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The Strom Radar app’s future radar (maybe it’s the HRRR ?) shows a big blowup, ahead of the front, right over Montgomery County around 4pm and pushes it into Harris County and then brings a second round down with the front towards midnight.
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jasons2k
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How is the middle of that line weakening as it heads this way? How the heck and why? We are at peak heating. No pesky outflow outrunning the convection (yet). That line should be filling-in right now, not falling apart. 🤦‍♂️
redneckweather
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Just like it's been doing to me in my neck of the woods for a solid week. Gets close then poof.
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