July 2020

[don]

Looks like watches are going up tonight... NHC just issued PTC 8.

[srainhoutx]

The upgrade to Potential Tropical Cyclone 8 will be issued at 10:00PM CDT. The full package advisory will be an interesting read.

[Kingwood36]

The upgrade to Potential Tropical Cyclone 8 will be issued at 10:00PM CDT. The full package advisory will be an interesting read.

I'm pretty sure you are glad you dont have to worry about this stuff anymore srain lol

[jasons2k]

I hope I get some rain because I just got some teasing sprinkles with the last system. I can’t recall the last time I’ve had multiple days of 60%-80% chances of rain forecast each day and I came up this dry. I’m just glad there isn’t a death ridge building-in right now or I’d be having 2011 PTSD.

Not really...I’m being dramatic....but still...hearing thunder for 6 days in a row and not even getting the lawn watered gets old by the 4th or 5th day.

I think the system in the Gulf is gonna stack and surprise some folks come Friday morning. I believe it’s gonna make a run at hurricane status and it will be one of those ‘if it had 12 more hours over water’ kind of systems.

[sau27]

Given the modeling right now, I’m not sure watches would go further north than Freeport.

[Kingwood36]

Given the modeling right now, I’m not sure watches would go further north than Freeport.

They will change

[srainhoutx]

The upgrade to Potential Tropical Cyclone 8 will be issued at 10:00PM CDT. The full package advisory will be an interesting read.

I'm pretty sure you are glad you dont have to worry about this stuff anymore srain lol

I still have family and friends across the SE Texas Region.

[Kingwood36]

The upgrade to Potential Tropical Cyclone 8 will be issued at 10:00PM CDT. The full package advisory will be an interesting read.

I'm pretty sure you are glad you dont have to worry about this stuff anymore srain lol

I still have family and friends across the SE Texas Region.

Well im sure I speak for everybody that we sure are glad you are still hanging around!

[jasons2k]

My guess for watches (eastern border) will be Sabine pass. They tend to be liberal with the watches on the eastern flank. Maybe High Island.

[Cpv17]

Given the modeling right now, I’m not sure watches would go further north than Freeport.

I think Corpus Christi to Galveston is possible. Maybe as far south as Baffin Bay.

[Kingwood36]

Recon headed back at 5:45 am

[Kingwood36]

We have a tropical drepression

[djmike]

Track is just west of Freeport

[Kingwood36]

Track is just west of Freeport

Ya im in freeport...

[srainhoutx]

Tropical Storm Watch issued from Port Mansfield to High Island. Glad the NHC went ahead and designated it a Depression versus a PTC. There's still confusion with the PTC designation in my opinion.

[tireman4]

Tropical Storm Watch issued from Port Mansfield to High Island. Glad the NHC went ahead and designated it a Depression versus a PTC. There's still confusion with the PTC designation in my opinion.

As we miss you here in Houston, Steve, I know ( at times) you miss Houston. Thank you again, for all you do both professionally here and personally with us.

[Cpv17]

Tropical Storm Watch issued from Port Mansfield to High Island. Glad the NHC went ahead and designated it a Depression versus a PTC. There's still confusion with the PTC designation in my opinion.

As we miss you here in Houston, Steve, I know ( at times) you miss Houston. Thank you again, for all you do both professionally here and personally with us.

Ditto. He’s awesome!

[don]

There it is.

Tropical Depression Eight Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020
1000 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2020

Surface observations and data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters
indicate that the area of low pressure over the central Gulf of
Mexico has developed a closed circulation and a well-defined
center. In addition, recent satellite images show an area of deep
convection expanding over the center. Based on those observations,
advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Eight. The
initial intensity is set at 25 kt based on the earlier
reconnaissance data.

The initial motion is an uncertain west-northwestward at 5 kt. A
subtropical ridge to the northeast of the depression should cause
it to continue moving in that general direction through Friday as
it tracks across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. A slight turn to
the left is expected Friday night and Saturday as a ridge builds to
the north of the system, taking the center of cyclone across the
Texas coast and then inland over southern Texas. The models are in
fairly good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC track forecast
lies near the various consensus models.

The depression is expected to be in generally light to moderate
wind shear conditions, in a fairly moist environment, and over the
warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico for the next couple of days, so
some strengthening seems likely. However, since the depression is
still in its formative stage, the rate of strengthening should be
gradual. After the storm crosses the coast, steady weakening should
commence. The NHC intensity forecast generally follows the IVCN and
HCCA guidance.

Key Messages

1. The depression is expected to strengthen and it could bring
tropical-storm-force winds to portions of the Texas coast, where a
tropical storm watch has been issued.

2. The depression is expected to produce heavy rains across
portions of Louisiana and southern Texas. These rains could result
in flash flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 25.9N 88.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 26.3N 89.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 27.0N 90.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 27.9N 92.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 28.2N 94.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 25/1200Z 28.5N 95.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 28.7N 96.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 27/0000Z 28.8N 98.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 28/0000Z 28.7N 100.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[jasons2k]

Tropical Storm Watch issued from Port Mansfield to High Island. Glad the NHC went ahead and designated it a Depression versus a PTC. There's still confusion with the PTC designation in my opinion.

As we miss you here in Houston, Steve, I know ( at times) you miss Houston. Thank you again, for all you do both professionally here and personally with us.

Ditto. He’s awesome!

Three cheers for Steve! Indeed!

[Andrew]

00z GFS still tries to keep this as an open wave during landfall. Not showing much rain either. Interesting to also note the major differences between the parallel and operational GFS.