July 2020

[Scott747]

12z Euro with it's most aggressive run so far. Quickly strengthening as it approaches landfall near Corpus.

[Kingwood36]

12z Euro with it's most aggressive run so far. Quickly strengthening as it approaches landfall near Corpus.

Doesn't it show it strengthening over land tho? Seems kinda off

[djmike]

Is it possible it makes landfall further up the Texas coast or is high pressure for sure dominating the mid or south texas landfall?

[Texaspirate11]

Crazy uncle CMC gives us a cane in 10 days.

It was mentioned in our HGX Disco this morning also

[Kingwood36]

Why was recon cancelled for today?

[Texaspirate11]

Maybe they want to investigate gonzalo instead?

[Scott747]

12z Euro with it's most aggressive run so far. Quickly strengthening as it approaches landfall near Corpus.

Doesn't it show it strengthening over land tho? Seems kinda off

That occasionally happens if the model is showing optimal conditions near and after landfall.

[Texaspirate11]

I know S Tx needs the rain but they are suffering the worst outbreak of COVID
I'd take the hit over them- they dont need this disaster within a disaster

[Scott747]

Unless something has changed recon should be on the runway and provide obs before the 4pm package if the decide to begin issuing advisories.

[Kingwood36]

I heard recon was cancelled for the day

[srainhoutx]

RECON is on the way

[davidiowx]

I heard recon was cancelled for the day

Where did you hear that? Looks like Recon is en route per tropical tidbits (Levi's site)

Edit - Srain beat me to it.

[Kingwood36]

I heard recon was cancelled for the day

Where did you hear that? Looks like Recon is en route per tropical tidbits (Levi's site)

Edit - Srain beat me to it.

On s2k..guess they were wrong

[davidiowx]

I heard recon was cancelled for the day

Where did you hear that? Looks like Recon is en route per tropical tidbits (Levi's site)

Edit - Srain beat me to it.

On s2k..guess they were wrong

I think I see where you saw that in the recon thread over there. That post was yesterday though.

[Kingwood36]

Where did you hear that? Looks like Recon is en route per tropical tidbits (Levi's site)

Edit - Srain beat me to it.

On s2k..guess they were wrong

I think I see where you saw that in the recon thread over there. That post was yesterday though.

Yup that's where I seen it lol my bad

[tireman4]

00
FXUS64 KHGX 221054
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
554 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2020

.SHORT TERM [Today through Tomorrow/Thursday]...

This morning`s radar not quite as active as yesterday morning but
still expecting things to pick up later today. As per WV imagery,
another slug of slightly deeper moisture is set to move ashore by
this afternoon. The best rain chances should be across our SE two
thirds of the CWA given the trajectory of the moisture sliding in
from the Gulf. The scattered showers/thunderstorms will be moving
inland steadily, so any locally heavy rainfall should be brief.

Activity should be winding down this evening with the loss of day
time heating. The re-development over the Gulf overnight could be
a little more sparse as the drier air (currently over the Central
Gulf) approaches the TX coastline just ahead of the next tropical
wave. Afternoon temperatures will be a bit warmer today as we be-
gin the day a lot less cloudy than yesterday. 41

&&

.LONG TERM [Tomorrow/Thursday Night through Wednesday]...

The main forecast issue for this time frame will be the impending
arrival of the next tropical wave currently over the eastern Gulf.
Models are remaining rather consistent with both the track/timing
of this feature; moving it onshore into the Middle/Upper TX coast
on Fri/Fri night. There`s still lots of uncertainty regarding its
potential for strengthening/organizing the next couple of days as
it encounters drier air in its path. As such, did opt for slight-
ly lower rain chances for Thurs night/early Fri. However, will be
keeping with the increased/very high POPs beginning Fri afternoon
on through Sat night. As this system works inland, there are some
indications that prolonged onshore flow with very high PWs in its
wake could persist into Sun...and possibly into the start of next
week. This may result in several rounds of widespread showers and
thunderstorms across SE TX during this timeperiod. We`re still in
the early stages of this system and changes are possible as we go
forward. 41

&&

.MARINE...

Southeasterly flow in place in the 4-13 knot range and seas of 2-3
feet. Weak troughiness along the coast into the Coastal Bend
remains and should fill in today so not expecting much change in the
winds today. WV imagery clearly shows a narrow moist axis from
northern Louisiana down the lower Sabine to well south of Galveston
300 miles sandwiched by drier air on either side. This axis is
likely to be the focus or showers and thunderstorms this morning
then expanding out with heating and shifting west. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms can be expected over much of the coastal waters
today. Winds also becoming more east and east-southeast late as the
tropical wave north of the Yucatan continues it`s slow westward
march. Most of the models are on the same page through Thursday
morning with the wave struggling to organize (again the previously
mentioned dry air aloft and some shear) so at this point expect that
E+NE winds will be increasing Thursday and SCEC conditions should
develop Thursday afternoon and SCA Thursday evening with seas of 5-7
feet (possibly higher) and winds of 15-25kts. Friday the system may
get better organized with increasing coverage of showers and
thunderstorms throughout the day and into the overnight hours. The
low level circulation should be close to or into the far coastal
waters Friday morning wobbling westward. This should lead to
elevated tide levels and minor beach flooding Thursday into Friday.
The low should trek on westward and slow probably still over the
Coastal Bend region or crawling into the southern Hill country
Saturday night. NHC currently is carrying a 40 percent chance of
development of the system so stay tuned.

Second system TD #7 in the MDR well east of Southern Windward
Islands this system is forecast to track into the eastern Caribbean
Saturday night as a tropical storm. Stay tuned on this one as well.
And last but not least is the next system currently over western
Africa with most models highlighting the potential for development
of it by the middle of next week over Central Atlantic.
45

&&

.AVIATION...
Skies vary wildly with mostly clear skies near the coast to low
stratus deck of IFR/LIFR from around 11R to CXO to DKR
northwestward. In the very short term expect the stratus deck to
fill in then shift slowly northward around 12z. Isolated showers
finally developing over the Matagorda Bay area. Expect a short
period of MVFR 12-14z as the area starts to warm up then rising
ceilings but with an increase in showers and thunderstorms. Today
the storms should probably follow more of very moist seabreeze sort
of pattern with the focus for storm impacts shifting inland through
the Metro hubs in mainly the 16-19z time frame...then the the well
inland sites 19-22z. Skies clearing late afternoon/early evening
from south to north and then some patchy MVFR ceilings developing
mainly along and south of 66R-CXO-IAH-HOU areas after 08z
Thursday.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 92 75 96 76 94 / 40 20 20 10 60
Houston (IAH) 92 78 94 78 89 / 60 20 40 20 80
Galveston (GLS) 88 82 90 81 88 / 50 20 40 50 80

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

[jasons2k]

I heard recon was cancelled for the day

Where did you hear that? Looks like Recon is en route per tropical tidbits (Levi's site)

Edit - Srain beat me to it.

On s2k..guess they were wrong

Not quite. WxMan57 had posted this “Doesn't look like recon is flying. Nothing on Levi's page yet.” - he was just guessing - and shortly later there was a reply with the initial recon coordinates.

[jasons2k]

In other news, one last good shot of rain coming-up before I turn my attention to the gulf for relief. That storm approaching IAH - I need that cluster to grow and make it up here. Don’t go poof on me now!

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 221954
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
254 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday Night)

Showers and thunderstorms will end around sunset as slightly drier
air works into the region and heating wanes. Skies will also begin
to clear with just some cirrus through the late evening but still
expecting a mix of low clouds over the north to redevelop toward
sunrise. Low temperatures tonight will be near seasonal normals.
Thursday looks drier and PW values fall to around 1.85 inches.
Fcst soundings show a bit more capping as well with warmer
convective temps. Could still get some showers near the coast in
the afternoon and will carry 20-30 PoPs for now. A weak upper
level disturbance rotating around the broad area of low pressure
over the SE gulf will bring scattered showers and storms Thursday
night over mainly the SE half of the CWA and will carry likely
PoPs at the immediate coast with chance PoPs inland and only
slight chance well inland. Cloud cover and increasing winds will
allow for slightly warmer overnight low temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM [Friday through Wednesday]...

The main weather story in the long term is the potential for heavy
rainfall, coastal flooding and elevated seas Friday into the weekend
as a tropical wave moves through.

Early this afternoon, per satellite imagery, the aforementioned
tropical wave (or AL91) was located over the central Gulf of Mexico
producing a large and disorganized area of showers and
thunderstorms. Synoptic scale patterns continue to suggest a broad
mid to upper level ridge across central and eastern CONUS, pushing
or keeping the movement of the wave west-northwest into the
northwestern Gulf and the upper Texas coast. Environment continues
to be marginally conducive for further development (tropical
depression or possibly tropical storm) as it moves farther west in
the coming days. In fact, the NHC has increased the probability of
development to a 70 percent over the next couple of days and 80
percent over the next five days on their 2PM update. Latest model
guidance continue to be in pretty good agreement with this system in
terms of amplitude and strength, bringing a closed surface low
across southeast TX/Coastal Bend by Friday. The ECMWF, NAM and
Canadian are the most aggressive models, with highest QPF over the
forecast area through the weekend. As of this forecast package,
highest PoP chances are possible along and south of I-10 (towards
the Coastal Plains/Matagorda Bay). The center of this system is
expected to be across central TX by Saturday, before dissipating
early next week.

Possible Impacts: Showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase
Friday throughout the day. With deep moisture in place and PWAT
values between 2.0 - 2.7 inches, periods of heavy rainfall are
expected Friday into the weekend. WPC Day 3 highlights this threat
with a Marginal Risk across parts of the region. In addition to
heavy rain, marine conditions are expected to deteriorate into the
weekend with elevated tides and seas possible from 3 to 5 feet.
Warning and watches could be issued across parts of the region
tonight or tomorrow.

Continue to monitor the latest forecast from our office and the NHC
for more updates as this system evolves over the next few days.

05

&&

.MARINE...

Onshore winds will persist tonight with high pressure east of the
area. A broad area of low pressure over the southeast Gulf will
gradually strengthen and a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm
could develop. This feature is progged to move W-NW toward
Matagorda Bay. Winds will be strongly dependent on the strength
and organization of this feature. Have gone a bit above 12z
guidance with winds and seas. Would also expect an increase in
water levels but ETSS modeling not showing much of a bump despite
having a 24-36 hour wind of increasing E-NE winds. Think the
trajectory and fetch supports higher than normal water levels and
an increasing risk for rip currents. Showers and thunderstorms
will be likely and a risk for higher winds in the stronger storms
will persist through the weekend. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 75 96 76 94 76 / 20 20 10 60 40
Houston (IAH) 78 94 78 89 78 / 30 40 20 80 50
Galveston (GLS) 82 90 81 88 80 / 20 40 50 80 70

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[jasons2k]

Poof (storm by IAH not the Gulf)