July 2020

[redneckweather]

Models are slowing this system down. If this becomes a depression or weak tropical storm, trust me, rain totals will go way up.

[Stormlover2020]

Yeah I agree it's a little too early to put too much stock in QPF amounts and locations. How organized and the size of 91L will have impacts on QPF amounts. Remember that low resolution models can often underestimate rainfall amounts when it comes to tropical rains. With southeast Texas most likely being on the dirty side,don't sleep on the potential for flooding regardless of the QPF the models are showing.

Agree

[Rip76]

Pretty tropical out here right now. I love these stacked clouds.

[Cromagnum]

Ugh. Does not bode well for my trip...figures.

[don]

Raining pretty good in the Heights right now. Some localized areas could have saturated grounds before the storm gets here.

[cperk]

I've gotten 1.25 inches here in Richmond and it's still coming down

[davidiowx]

Getting some good rains here as well in Richmond!

91L is looking better by the second... models have been really bad so far (probably due to less planes flying, etc. etc. maybe?) but there may be some surprises with this if the trend continues

[don]

91L may be classified as a tropical depression as early as this afternoon.Looking at the ASCAT it may be a depression already, we'll have to wait for recon to verify.

[TexasBreeze]

It does look good compared to when I looked at it 6 am this morning.

[cperk]

Ended up with 1.53 inches.

[Cpv17]

It’s looking like the models for 91L have most of the rain concentrated right along the center and just south of the center when it comes ashore later this week..that could be a bad thing if you’re wanting rain. It’s looking like areas north of 10 might be lucky to get 1-2” out of this. Jackpot seems to be from the Victotria area down towards Corpus Christi as of right now.

U model watch to much, look at the pattern, look at the total environment and ingredients in place, if it develops info trop Storm u will see more totals.

I follow trends by the models and post about them. Nothing wrong with that imo. I know systems usually have the highest qpf totals to the north and east of the center but not every storm is like that. Since this might not be a very well put together storm then you could see higher totals to the south of it. We’ll know a lot more tomorrow. If this comes together more than expected then yeah totals will definitely be going up.

[Scott747]

Getting some good rains here as well in Richmond!

91L is looking better by the second... models have been really bad so far (probably due to less planes flying, etc. etc. maybe?) but there may be some surprises with this if the trend continues

There isn't a lack of recon flights and regardless it isn't having an impact on predicting genesis. The only model that hasn't been excited so to speak with this system is the GFS and it has been pulsing up and down with it. So for now the modeling overall has been decent. Organization does appear to be ahead of schedule by 24 hrs.

Hurricane models are running for the 12z cycle....

[unome]

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/sta ... 2716761095

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1285979567346327552

[Scott747]

Hurricane models have a weak TS or depression coming in around Sargent or Baffin Bay sometime Saturday.

Seems reasonable for now unless the current organization doesn't wane this afternoon.

[Rip76]

Seems reasonable for now unless the current organization doesn't wane this afternoon.

I expect it to a little this afternoon.

[sau27]

Over 3.5 inches at Willow Water Hole guage in SW Houston in past hour.

[Cpv17]

Crazy uncle CMC gives us a cane in 10 days.

[davidiowx]

Recent satellite wind data indicate that a broad low pressure area
has formed in association with the tropical wave over the central
Gulf of Mexico. However, the accompanying shower and thunderstorm
activity is currently poorly organized. Conditions appear conducive
for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next day or two as the system moves west-
northwestward at about 10 mph. Interests in the western Gulf of
Mexico should monitor the progress of this system, as watches or
warnings could be required for portions of the coasts of Texas and
Louisiana later today or tonight. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this
afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[CrashTestDummy]

The wave seems to be getting better-organized, based on the visible satellite mosaic.

[jasons2k]

Latest from Jeff Lindner:

Based on satellite and surface observations, a broad surface low pressure center has formed with the tropical wave moving into the central Gulf of Mexico. A USAF mission is currently departing to investigate this system to determine if a tropical depression has formed. NHC has increased the chance of formation to 80% and advised that watches and/or warnings could be issued for portions of the TX and LA coast tonight or on Thursday. Overall the organization of the system is increasing and it is likely that a tropical depression or storm will form in the next day or two as the system moves generally toward the WNW around 10mph.