MAY 2020

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
javakah
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000
WFUS54 KHGX 281951
TORHGX
TXC167-282015-
/O.NEW.KHGX.TO.W.0022.200528T1951Z-200528T2015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
251 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Central Galveston County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 315 PM CDT.

* At 250 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
tornado was located near the Texas City Dike, moving south at 10
mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
Texas City Dike at 255 PM CDT
Pelican Island around 305 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
League City.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2941 9488 2942 9483 2936 9473 2931 9487
TIME...MOT...LOC 1950Z 354DEG 12KT 2938 9485

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.00IN

$$
Cromagnum
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Similar look to yesterday in my backyard. Looks like Independence Day alien ship arrival all over again.
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jasons2k
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Rain chances for this afternoon have been lowered across the board. The excitement was fun while it lasted. As we turn the page into June, and right on que, we start looking south, instead of north, for new opportunities for rain events.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Entering the worst. Part. Of. The. year!
Team #NeverSummer
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jasons2k
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Fri May 29, 2020 3:01 pm Entering the worst. Part. Of. The. year!
Hopefully this will be a summer without a drought and triple digits. I would be delighted with a summer full of low 70’s ranging low 90’s with a 50/50 shot each day for sea breeze downpours.

Unfortunately, asking for the Houston summer to mimic Tampa Bay may be asking too much, at least in most years.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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jasons2k wrote: Fri May 29, 2020 4:09 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Fri May 29, 2020 3:01 pm Entering the worst. Part. Of. The. year!
Hopefully this will be a summer without a drought and triple digits. I would be delighted with a summer full of low 70’s ranging low 90’s with a 50/50 shot each day for sea breeze downpours.

Unfortunately, asking for the Houston summer to mimic Tampa Bay may be asking too much, at least in most years.
That’s about the best I could ask for.... if Summer 2007 happened again, I’d be happy.
Team #NeverSummer
Andrew
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Fri May 29, 2020 3:01 pm Entering the worst. Part. Of. The. year!
*Best part :lol:
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Cpv17
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Rain chances are definitely on the rise for this weekend, especially for tomorrow. Models are looking quite yet.
JDsGN
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Cpv17 wrote: Sat May 30, 2020 11:09 am Rain chances are definitely on the rise for this weekend, especially for tomorrow. Models are looking quite yet.
First I’ve seen this. I wasn’t paying much attention because rain chances were near 0 for this weekend but I just checked and it’s 60%. What changed?
Cpv17
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JDsGN wrote: Sat May 30, 2020 11:45 am
Cpv17 wrote: Sat May 30, 2020 11:09 am Rain chances are definitely on the rise for this weekend, especially for tomorrow. Models are looking quite yet.
First I’ve seen this. I wasn’t paying much attention because rain chances were near 0 for this weekend but I just checked and it’s 60%. What changed?
An ULL parked over the northern mountains of Mexico was originally forecasted to drift west away from us but now it’s slowly drifting east towards us and pumping in a lot of Gulf moisture.
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don
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The ULL and Ridge to the east of us will have to be watched as that could pull a system in our direction if something were to develop in the Bay of Campeche region.
Cpv17
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don wrote: Sat May 30, 2020 1:16 pm The ULL and Ridge to the east of us will have to be watched as that could pull a system in our direction if something were to develop in the Bay of Campeche region.
Yes but also I’m pretty sure the ULL would shear the system apart and provide unfavorable conditions for development?
Andrew
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Cpv17 wrote: Sat May 30, 2020 12:19 pm
JDsGN wrote: Sat May 30, 2020 11:45 am
Cpv17 wrote: Sat May 30, 2020 11:09 am Rain chances are definitely on the rise for this weekend, especially for tomorrow. Models are looking quite yet.
First I’ve seen this. I wasn’t paying much attention because rain chances were near 0 for this weekend but I just checked and it’s 60%. What changed?
An ULL parked over the northern mountains of Mexico was originally forecasted to drift west away from us but now it’s slowly drifting east towards us and pumping in a lot of Gulf moisture.
Moisture fetch from the Gulf will be on the rise a lot too. P-Wats for tomorrow afternoon are foretasted to be over 2 inches in some parts which would be nearly two standard deviations above average. It really just depends on how much mid/upper level lift we get near the convective temperature. Either way plenty of moisture will be available.
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Andrew
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Cpv17 wrote: Sat May 30, 2020 1:23 pm
don wrote: Sat May 30, 2020 1:16 pm The ULL and Ridge to the east of us will have to be watched as that could pull a system in our direction if something were to develop in the Bay of Campeche region.
Yes but also I’m pretty sure the ULL would shear the system apart and provide unfavorable conditions for development?
Models have the ULL moving over North Texas by early week, but is still something to monitor. With that said, models still show pretty strong westerlies across the gulf for much of the weak. IF anything forms in the gulf it's likely to be pretty sheared, but pretty typical for this time of the year. I'm still not sure how successful the Kelvin wave will be transitioning from the Pacific to the Atlantic. If anything, this setup reminds me of one of those deep into the BOC storms. Something to monitor for sure though.
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don
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Cpv17 wrote: Sat May 30, 2020 1:23 pm
don wrote: Sat May 30, 2020 1:16 pm The ULL and Ridge to the east of us will have to be watched as that could pull a system in our direction if something were to develop in the Bay of Campeche region.
Yes but also I’m pretty sure the ULL would shear the system apart and provide unfavorable conditions for development?
Yes it certainly could, but shear doesn't necessarily mean no development you can still have development of a weak to moderate lopsided tropical storm depending on how strong the shear is. Shear would help to keep the system in check though,from developing into anything more substantial. But as we all know here in Southeast Texas all it takes is a tropical storm to cause problems.Saying that if anything were to develop 9 times out of 10 this time of year it should be weak,but rainfall potential could be high due to monsoonal pacific moisture.
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don
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The number of ensembles members that show development have substantially increased in the 12z EURO today fwiw.
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Katdaddy
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Yep, it will be time to watch the GOM next week. Hopefully only some tropical moisture and nothing else.
Cpv17
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don wrote: Sat May 30, 2020 3:08 pm The number of ensembles members that show development have substantially increased in the 12z EURO today fwiw.
Many of those members are showing anywhere from
a strong tropical storm to a moderate cane.
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snowman65
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should be fun...
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DoctorMu
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GFS has a tropical system moving in followed by a mid-June cold front. The teasing starts early!

Amending - Euro, Canadian, ICON buying in as well to the tropical system.
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