February 2020

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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jasons2k
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DoctorMu wrote: Mon Feb 10, 2020 9:29 pm I'm on the cool side so I enjoyed my run without sweating to death.


So, bad news for me. The earliest Spring in 39 years in the SE per the Phenology Society.

https://www.usanpn.org/news/spring

Grackles are back 2-4 weeks early....and the weeds are out of control here in Texas. The spring insects are going to be murder. Could be an early and devastating tornado season in the South and Southern Plains as well. If there's limited shear in the Atlantic tropics in August and September, hurricane season could be another record setter.

[click on image for animation]
Those are very cool maps! Thanks for posting!

I wonder why on the 2nd set of graphics the subtitle says “How often do we see Springs like 2019?”

I think they meant 2020?

Also, the NWS lowered my rain chances for the rest of tonight, tomorrow and tomorrow night. Still 90% for Wednesday though.
Kingwood36
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What happend to this rain we were suppose to get?
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jasons2k
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Kingwood36 wrote: Tue Feb 11, 2020 7:21 am What happend to this rain we were suppose to get?
They don’t have a good handle on the situation. Reading the NWS AFD, they are already walking back the heavy rain scenario. It’s also incredibly frustrating reading their reasoning. They are basically model watching at this point. What happened to good old-fashioned forecasting?
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srainhoutx
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Tuesday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

Cloudy and gloomy weather will continue through Wednesday and then again this weekend and much of next week.

Surface cold front has crept offshore overnight allowing a cool surface air mass with temperatures in the 50’s to move over much of the region. Most of the rainfall over the last 24 hours has been focused north of a line from College Station to Livingston near/along the 850mb front. The surface cold dome is fairly shallow, but moist SSW/SW flow aloft riding over the top of the surface cold dome will result in clouds, fog, drizzle, and light rain showers today into tonight…or February weather in SE TX. Expect rainfall amounts to average generally less than .25 of an inch today with amounts possible nearing .50 of an inch in the College Station to Livingston corridor.

Surface front has pushed the recent sea fog episode offshore this morning, but as the boundary begins to slowly lift northward later today, expect sea fog to once again approach the coast and move into the coastal counties and bays. Stronger cold front late Wednesday will then end the sea fog threat for a few days.

An upper level storm system over northern MX will move eastward and across TX on Wednesday. This system will result in surface low pressure forming over SE TX on Wednesday and the frontal boundary over the Gulf will lift northward as a warm front late tonight into early Wednesday. Lift increases from the SW late tonight into the first half of Wednesday and expect numerous showers and possibly a few thunderstorms to develop over the area. A cold front will sweep through the region late Wednesday and the trough axis Wednesday night finally allowing a drier air mass to move into the region with decreasing clouds for Thursday. Temperatures behind the front late Wednesday could near freezing around Crockett Thursday and Friday mornings.

Enjoy the sun Thursday and Friday because we go back in the “soup” late Friday into Saturday. Weak upper level ridge moves quickly east and yet again an upper level trough drops into the SW US/N MX and induces SW flow aloft over TX from the eastern Pacific. Moisture returns Saturday and expect clouds and showers to develop. Warm air advection and increasing dewpoints over the nearshore waters this weekend will likely return the dense sea fog along the coast and this looks to linger into at least early next week. Chances for showers will be in the forecast Saturday-early next week.
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Cpv17
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12z Euro continues to look good for rain. Basically everyone gets at least an inch or more over the next 10 days.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 111629
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1029 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2020

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday]...

Gloomy...isentropic upglide will keep it cloudy with periods of
light rain across much of the area today. Rainfall accumulations
will be primarily less than 1/10th of an inch. Further north
(closer to the 850 front) showers and even isolated thunderstorms
could bring amounts of around 0.50 inch north of a Brenham to
Groveton line. Diurnal temperature range today will be confined to
a small range...46-53 north...52-63 south. Sea fog is likely to
spread back into the area near the immediate coast as the offshore
winds in the wake of the cold front weaken and veer to the east
and southeast overnight.
45

&&

.MARINE...

Offshore winds have helped improve the visibility but not fully
across the bays. Nearshore waters though the fog remains and as
winds become more easterly late this afternoon/early this evening
expect the dense sea fog to scrabble it`s way back into the
ICW/Bays. Have hoisted a marine dense fog advisory for the
nearshore waters through 18z Wednesday ending with the cold front
passage. Will probably be expanding the marine dense fog advisory
into the bays in the afternoon package if the guidance is still as
bullish.
45


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 550 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2020/...





.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Tuesday]...

The cold front that came through the region during the day on
Wednesday should be in central Louisiana by Wednesday night.
However, the associated upper level trough will continue to swing
through SE Texas overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning. This
means that the even though the front has pushed through, there will
still be some lingering isolated showers (mainly over the Gulf
waters) and that partly cloudy skies will linger through Thursday
morning. Now the skies are expected clear out from west to east
overnight Wednesday, but if is clears out a bit earlier than
anticipated, B/CS could dip into upper 30s by sunrise Thursday.
And I what to emphasize the SUN in SUNrise cause we will finally
see it again on Thursday! Skies will be mostly clear by Thursday
afternoon with temperatures climbing into the upper 50s north of
Houston Metro and into the low 60s Houston southward. These
temperatures are about 5 to 10 degrees below normal, which
combined with a breezy northerly wind will mean that it may feel a
bit brisk out on Thursday.

Clear skies and that northerly wind will bring temperatures down
into the upper 30s across most of the area Thursday night, but
Burleson County up through Houston County could flirt with near
freezing temperatures. Friday will be similar weather-wise, but
clouds will begin to increase from the south late Friday into
Saturday morning. Unfortunately, cloudy skies will continue through
midweek next week due to moist onshore flow persisting. Beginning
Sunday, there will be a chance of showers each day through
midweek next week as well. So, enjoy the sunny skies on Thursday
and Friday while you can.

Fowler


.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

A cold front remains off the coast this morning. AMDAR sounding
show a REALLY shallow frontal surface so expect there to be some
elevated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm. Thunderstorms may be
more likely Wednesday morning as a upper level trough approaches
the area. Until then, ceilings will likely be IFR the whole day
with a few pockets of MVFR when stronger showers develop. Cold
front off the coast is expected to stall and then push north
tonight. Winds should turn from northerly to southeast by
Wednesday morning. Quite possible IFR conditions will go down to
LIFR with pockets of dense fog along the coast for KGLS tonight.
Ceilings may not really improve until Wednesday night as a cold
front pushes through again.

Overpeck

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 53 49 59 40 57 / 80 100 100 10 0
Houston (IAH) 60 58 68 46 59 / 80 80 100 20 0
Galveston (GLS) 62 62 70 52 60 / 50 60 80 30 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST Wednesday for the following
zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport TX out 20 NM.


&&

$$


SHORT TERM/MARINE/AVIATION...45
LONG TERM/DSS...LUCHS
Kingwood36
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So is it safe to say winter is pretty much over with?
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djmike
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80-90% rain and storms forcasted for us in Bmt Yesterday and today. Not a single drop. Why so high percentage and no rain? Has all stayed well north of SETX. Nws has 90-100% for us tomorrow. We’ll see how that plays out, but so far for two straight days, its been a bust here atleast.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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jasons2k
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djmike wrote: Tue Feb 11, 2020 6:33 pm 80-90% rain and storms forcasted for us in Bmt Yesterday and today. Not a single drop. Why so high percentage and no rain? Has all stayed well north of SETX. Nws has 90-100% for us tomorrow. We’ll see how that plays out, but so far for two straight days, its been a bust here atleast.
Yeah, I was able to get another run in tonight. Told my wife on Sunday there wasn’t a chance we’d get to run today. I layered and felt great. It really helps when there isn’t a stiff north wind.
Cromagnum
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Kingwood36 wrote: Tue Feb 11, 2020 5:42 pm So is it safe to say winter is pretty much over with?
It was over back in December.
Cpv17
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djmike wrote: Tue Feb 11, 2020 6:33 pm 80-90% rain and storms forcasted for us in Bmt Yesterday and today. Not a single drop. Why so high percentage and no rain? Has all stayed well north of SETX. Nws has 90-100% for us tomorrow. We’ll see how that plays out, but so far for two straight days, its been a bust here atleast.
Huge bust all across SETX. Hardly a drop anywhere for the most part. I don’t recall such a big bust happening before in my recent memory.
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tireman4
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00
FXUS64 KHGX 121752
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1152 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2020


.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

Most recent radar imagery is showing a line of showers associated
with an advancing boundary pushing through SE Texas, with the
northern terminals reporting precipitation at the onset of the TAF
period. Showers along this line are expected to reach the metro
terminals around 19-20Z and the coast by 21-22Z. IFR to MVFR cigs
have persisted at most locations through the morning hours, but a
gradual improvement is expected later this afternoon as the
advancing boundary pushes offshore. VFR conditions look to return
tonight as drier air enters the region behind the departing
front. Lighter winds and clearer conditions along with a
saturated surface from this afternoon`s rainfall could allow for
the development of some patchy fog, but widespread visibility
concerns akin to what the area has experienced over the past few
days are not expected.

Cady

&&
Cpv17
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The models sure change quickly. Euro is back to being dry now lol
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jasons2k
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Cpv17 wrote: Wed Feb 12, 2020 11:02 am
djmike wrote: Tue Feb 11, 2020 6:33 pm 80-90% rain and storms forcasted for us in Bmt Yesterday and today. Not a single drop. Why so high percentage and no rain? Has all stayed well north of SETX. Nws has 90-100% for us tomorrow. We’ll see how that plays out, but so far for two straight days, its been a bust here atleast.
Huge bust all across SETX. Hardly a drop anywhere for the most part. I don’t recall such a big bust happening before in my recent memory.

I had .07” today and .01” yesterday. We were supposed to average 1-2 inches north of I-10 and 3-4 inches in the Lake Livingston area. Yeah, I would agree this was a pretty big bust.
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djmike
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Yup. I finally got a sprinkle yesterday as the front passed. NOTHING compared to what was forecasted the last 3 days. 5 day total is 0.05. :-/
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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srainhoutx
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Thursday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

Surface cold front has finally pushed well offshore ending the light rain, drizzle and fog of the last several days.

Clouds have cleared early this morning, but nighttime RBG images show a low level stratus deck racing SSW from N TX toward the area. Forecast models show little in the way of surface to 800mb moisture (NAM shows about 70% saturation in this layer), but the satellite does not lie and the advection southward of this cloud deck into SE TX is looking likely. This low level deck in already to Lake Livingston and nearing Huntsville and will likely arrive toward I-10 in the next 1-2 hours. Better mixing and drier air may limit its SW expansion down toward Matagorda Bay. Since forecast models are not handling the deck well, not sure how long it will take to break up this morning and exactly how far south it will advect.

Drier air mass should finally clear skies later today allowing a fairly cold night with temperatures falling into the 30’s for most areas. Near freezing temperatures will be possible in the Huntsville to Crockett to Livingston area…and while a light freeze is not usually of much harm…the warmth of late has resulted in vegetation breaking dormancy early (about 20-25 days earlier than normal) and sensitive buds could be damaged.

Clear skies and slightly below normal mid February temperatures should dominant on Friday with lows in the 30’s and highs in the 50’s. High level clouds begin to increase from the SW late in the day…a harbinger of another incoming period of dreary weather.

Next upper level storm system will drop into the SW US this weekend and its position to our west will yet again induce SW flow aloft over TX allowing a tap of eastern Pacific mid and upper level moisture to overspread the region. Additionally, as the current surface high moves eastward, onshore flow returns by Saturday afternoon and Gulf moisture begins its return to the area. Clouds will thicken on Saturday, but will hold off on any rain chances until Saturday night and Sunday and even then will keep them around 30% and mainly near the coast.

SW flow aloft will continue through much of next week, so expect cloudy and gloomy conditions from Sunday onward into the end of next week. Dewpoints begin to get up around 60-65 by late Sunday into Monday and expect another extended period of sea fog to develop along the upper TX coast spreading into the inland bays and coastal counties. Rain chances will hold in the 30-40% chance range daily as moisture flows inland off the Gulf and weak disturbances in the SW flow aloft cross the area. Not looking at much in the way of rainfall amounts…maybe .25 of an inch from Sunday-Tuesday (very similar to this past week…more drizzle, fog, and light showers). High temperatures should get into the 70’s on Sunday and maybe the mid to upper 70’s on Monday (depending on if there are any breaks in the low level clouds and fog). Shallow, yet cold, front will likely arrive around the late Tuesday/early Wednesday time frame allowing a cold air mass to enter the region. Moisture looks to remain in place behind the front so instead of warm and gloomy it will be cold and gloomy.
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Cpv17
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0z Euro is downright frigid days 7-10 with light winter precip.
Cromagnum
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Cpv17 wrote: Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:58 am 0z Euro is downright frigid days 7-10 with light winter precip.
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jasons2k
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That wind today is COLD! Geez make it stop!
Cpv17
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Today’s updated CPC forecast raises an eyebrow for next week.
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