February 2020

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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DoctorMu
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Sleet now in the Wednesday night NOAA forecast for College Station.
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Katdaddy
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URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
400 AM CST Mon Feb 3 2020

TXZ176-177-195>199-210>213-226-227-235>237-335>337-436-031800-
/O.NEW.KHGX.WI.Y.0001.200203T1500Z-200204T0000Z/
Madison-Walker-Burleson-Brazos-Washington-Grimes-Montgomery-
Colorado-Austin-Waller-Inland Harris-Wharton-Fort Bend-
Inland Jackson-Inland Matagorda-Inland Brazoria-Coastal Jackson-
Coastal Matagorda-Coastal Brazoria-Matagorda Islands-
Including the cities of Madisonville, Huntsville, Caldwell,
Somerville, College Station, Bryan, Brenham, Navasota, Conroe,
The Woodlands, Columbus, Eagle Lake, Weimar, Sealy, Bellville,
Hempstead, Prairie View, Brookshire, Waller, Houston, El Campo,
Wharton, Missouri City, Mission Bend, Sugar Land, Rosenberg,
First Colony, Pecan Grove, Edna, Ganado, Bay City, Pearland,
Alvin, Angleton, Palacios, Lake Jackson, Freeport, and Clute
400 AM CST Mon Feb 3 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST
THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 30 to 35 mph
expected.

* WHERE...Portions of south central and southeast Texas.

* WHEN...From 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects.
Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may
result.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.
redneckweather
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Who do y'all think will see the biggest snow totals out of this system? I'm thinking the Abilene area from the past few model runs.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 031031
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
431 AM CST Mon Feb 3 2020

.DISCUSSION...
Changeable weather pattern on tap this week with big swings in
temperatures...periodic rain chances and even the possibility of
winter precip within a brief window late Wednesday night for NW
counties. We`ll outline these points below.

Reilly

.SHORT TERM [Today Through Tuesday]...
Southerly flow underway this morning and temperatures have
started creeping up where stronger southerly winds have been going
overnight...mainly the coastal counties and the western areas.
Speaking of winds have issued a Wind Advisory for the areas
generally west of a line from I-45 starting as of 15z. Winds of 15
to 25 mph with gusts near 30 mph. Even 35 mph gusts possible in a
narrow band from near Edna-Bay City to Navasota. Temperatures
even with all this mixing should climb into the mid to upper 70s.
Probably won`t see the repeats of yesterday`s 80 degree readings.
S/W moving across from the southwest today (after 10 am) should
bring an increasing chance for -RA/-SHRA/SHRA mainly starting from
near Edna shifting northeastward to Katy to Livingston northward
with the greatest rain chances in the northeastern counties this
afternoon. An isolated thunderstorm may be possible in the far
northeast but confidence is low enough that will keep it showers
for now. Strong winds diminish this evening but still remain above
5-10 mph. The impressive plume of Pacific moisture will
overspread the area combining with the low level moisture from the
Gulf to bring a warm and still breezy day Tuesday. Rain chances
continue as this plume of moisture remains over the area and
isolated thunderstorms look possible. SPC outlook places the
northeastern areas in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms
though realizing the CAPE may be a challenge. Rainfall
accumulations should be less than 0.25" through Tuesday afternoon.
Temperatures again on Tuesday soar back up into the mid to upper
70s and wouldn`t rule out near 80 temperatures in the
southwesternmost counties. Some sea fog/haze will be possible
Tuesday near the immediate coast. 45


.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Monday]...
Forecast models depict cold front dropping from north to south
across the area Tuesday night. Some differences in timing between
the synoptic models...with NAM the quickest...ECMWF the slowest
and GFS in between. Timing of front will have major implications
on high temperature forecast for Wednesday among other things. For
this forecast package went with the GFS as a compromise between
the slower EC and some of the quicker runs...including the NAM.
This would bring the cold front to the coast around 12Z give or
take a few hours. Will then be drastically colder on Wednesday
with temps running 20 to 25 degrees colder than the day
before...and with a brisk north wind and an occasional cold light
rain making it feel even colder.

Wednesday night...there may be a break in the precipitation Wed
evneing. A fairly high amplitude upper trough swings across the
area bringing perhaps another batch of precipitation. By late at
night models soundings from GFS and to some extent ECMWF suggest
temperature and humidity profile may support some sleet and snow
mixing in NW counties. GFS seems to the the coldest solution.
Although in general trend will be for drier air to filter in...GFS
sounding does show a fairly deep saturated layer above 700
mb...and through the -10C to -15C layer...perhaps enough to grow
some ice crystals...snow flakes which may seed lower layers.
Botton line...have kept mention of sleet for that 06Z to 12Z
Thursday period for NW counties but added mention of snow to the
mix as well. Based on soundings and surface temperatures think
freezing rain is less likely than rain...sleet and snow so have
taken that out of the forecast for those areas.

Thursday though Monday...
Should be generally precipitation free...Thursday through Saturday
except for perhaps a few lingering showers far eastern counties
Thursday morning. Flow becomes onshore Saturday and increases
Sunday. With increasing flow off the Gulf...will see rain chances
return on Sunday and increase on Monday.

Reilly


&&

.MARINE...
Small craft advisory conditions developing this morning across the
Gulf waters and expanding up into Matagorda Bay beneath the LLJ.
Winds of 15 to 25 knots should be commonplace. Concerned that
tonight winds near gale will be possible in the southwestern waters
as strong mixing takes place. Will need to monitor this area for
possible upgrade to gale. With all this wind seas should be steadily
building and 6-9 feet should be common today through Tuesday...if
these much stronger winds do develop tonight seas of 10-11 feet may
develop in the southwest waters. These strong winds should limit sea
fog development until possibly Tuesday over the colder shelf waters
mainly near Galveston/Bolivar. Winds relax slightly prior to the
cold front`s arrival Wednesday morning but then ramp back up with
strong CAA over the warm waters will likely see an abrupt jump in
the wave heights with chaotic seas develop given the long southerly
fetch of swells that will be hammering up into the coast. On that
note...elevated tide levels of around .3-.7` feet should continue to
climb and will be watching for these longer period swells to arrive
Tuesday morning. Window for strong to very strong rip currents and
beach flooding will be Tuesday morning through at least the
afternoon hours. SCA conditions post frontal passage and probably a
line of showers and thunderstorms with the front as it moves
offshore Wednesday morning. Winds relax quickly Thursday night and
turn around to the west and southwest by Friday noon.

45

&&

.AVIATION...
Minor changes to the current package with VFR conditions becoming
gusty around 15z. Borderline with LLWS in the west this morning.
MVFR ceilings developing this afternoon probably near the coast
first then expanding inland...CLL may hold til late afternoon before
dropping. Showers developing and traversing through the area this
afternoon from southwest to northeast. Overnight tonight elevated
southerly winds and MVFR ceilings lowering along with showers. LLWS
will probably be an issue for the LBX/GLS terminals Tuesday between
03-12z. Tuesday should remain MVFR.
45

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 73 62 75 43 48 / 40 30 20 50 60
Houston (IAH) 72 64 77 56 59 / 30 30 30 40 80
Galveston (GLS) 68 64 72 61 63 / 20 20 20 30 60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 9 AM CST this morning
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Matagorda
Bay...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX
from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reilly
SHORT TERM...45
LONG TERM...Reilly
AVIATION...45
MARINE...45
Cpv17
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redneckweather wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2020 9:43 am Who do y'all think will see the biggest snow totals out of this system? I'm thinking the Abilene area from the past few model runs.
I agree. Anywhere from there to WF seems to be the sweet spot.
Kingwood36
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Cpv17 wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2020 11:26 am
redneckweather wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2020 9:43 am Who do y'all think will see the biggest snow totals out of this system? I'm thinking the Abilene area from the past few model runs.
I agree. Anywhere from there to WF seems to be the sweet spot.
If it isnt here...then who cares lol
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don
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12z EURO now shows a band of light rain/snow mix moving through South central and Southeast Texas as the cold core trough swings by, the 12z ICON looks similar fwiw.
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GBinGrimes
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That's Texas weather for you! Trees start budding a month early, bluebonnets start sprouting and Winter says, "Ummm...oh no you don't. I still have a say-so around here."
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jasons2k
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Kingwood36 wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2020 11:48 am
Cpv17 wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2020 11:26 am
redneckweather wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2020 9:43 am Who do y'all think will see the biggest snow totals out of this system? I'm thinking the Abilene area from the past few model runs.
I agree. Anywhere from there to WF seems to be the sweet spot.
If it isnt here...then who cares lol
He mentioned taking a road trip to chase it.

NWS has a forecast low of 36F for me Wed Night. Close.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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jasons2k wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2020 12:52 pm
Kingwood36 wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2020 11:48 am
Cpv17 wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2020 11:26 am

I agree. Anywhere from there to WF seems to be the sweet spot.
If it isnt here...then who cares lol
He mentioned taking a road trip to chase it.

NWS has a forecast low of 36F for me Wed Night. Close.

Yep, some people chase tornadoes. I chase intense Winter Storms.

There is nothing more pure than white out blizzard conditions and 50-60 mph winds. I love it!

When we go to Montana, I often look for the days where we get dumped on, and I'll be the only one on the slopes.
Team #NeverSummer
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tireman4
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You rock Montgomery CoWx!!
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 031744
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1144 AM CST Mon Feb 3 2020

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

MVFR CIGs have spread across the region this morning and will be
reaching GLS within the next couple of hours. These clouds will
continue through tonight and into tomorrow morning with a BKN/OVC
1500ft deck over most of the region developing tonight. The
southerly winds will continue to gust to 20 to 30 MPH this
afternoon, then lessening overnight tonight although winds remain
elevated through tomorrow afternoon. Still expecting some
scattered showers to move across the region later this afternoon,
but have delayed the onset of VCSH a few hours compared to the
previous package. Shower coverage decreases tonight, but returns
tomorrow afternoon. One other concern is the possibility of some
fog developing late tonight for LBX and GLS, but it is expected to
be mainly patchy then clearing by tomorrow morning.

&&
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don
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 032152
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
352 PM CST Mon Feb 3 2020


.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Monday]...
Cold front and associated should be making its way into northern
parts of the area around midnight then toward the Highway 59/69
corridor toward 6 am Wed. Initially, not expecting spectacular
coverage along the boundary as it moves in, but do expect
coverage to increase as it makes southward progress. As we head
into the sunrise hours Wednesday, some models are pointing toward
a 130kt speed max making its way in from the sw, possibly putting
the coastal areas in the LFQ which would enhance overall lift.
Can`t rule out a burst of convection developing should the cap
erode. Otherwise, the front should resume swd progress once again
toward mid morning as the disturbance passes. Precip will taper
off from the west during the day, but breezy & cloudy conditions
will persist (along with falling temps) into the evening.

As the upper trof makes its way closer to the area Wed night,
guidance still shows the possibility of a narrow ne-sw oriented
band of precip developing overnight and passing thru the CWA from
roughly midnight-6am Thurs. Locally, overall column moisture
levels don`t look quite as high as was depicted yday and last
night and models vary in regards to the overall placement of the
precip (and will likely continue fluctuating for the next 24+
hours). There still appears to be a narrow window (midnight-6am)
of seeing a transition to a mix of precip types, but confidence in
the details remains low. Regardless, unless something changes,
not anticipating impacts considering the recent warm wx/ground and
overall quick movement.


https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1
redneckweather
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20200204_002800.jpg
harp
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redneckweather wrote: Tue Feb 04, 2020 12:30 am 20200204_002800.jpg
Does that mean you guys in Houston have a chance? ;) ;)
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Katdaddy
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A cloudy warm day ahead with highs in the upper 70s to near 80F. Thunderstorms will be possible tonight associated with the cold front. A few of the stronger thunderstorms could produce some hail. The SPC has a marginal risk area across SE TX including the Houston area. Temps will be falling throughout the day Wednesday with continued showers during the first half of the day. Another disturbance arrives late Wednesday and early Thursday morning which will result in a chance of Winter precipitation N and W of Houston. Perhaps a snowflake or 2 across NW Houston but the timing of the moisture content and the depth of cold air will be critical as always for SE TX.
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Cromagnum
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Running the AC in february to be able to sleep...
:x
CrashTestDummy
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Cromagnum wrote: Tue Feb 04, 2020 7:49 am Running the AC in february to be able to sleep...
:x
I'll take that! :D Actually, our house 'leaks' enough that it cools down fairly rapidly at night. Good ol' 1970's building at work again.

It does beat the heck out of standing on a ladder in 40-deg, 15-MPH north wind trying to get the citrus covered before the freeze. So far, it's been nice and warm. Just wish the rains would hold off some. Our back yard _just_ dried out enough we don't have to wear boots out there.
Gene Beaird,
Pearland, Texas

"You can learn a lot from a Dummy."
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 041151
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
551 AM CST Tue Feb 4 2020

.AVIATION...
Winds have begun to decrease as the gradient relaxes. A mix of
MVFR/VFR ceilings across the area but moisture trapped beneath a
capping inversion should keep skies mostly cloudy (MVFR) for the
morning before drier air aloft mixes toward the surface by
afternoon. A weak disturbance embedded in the southwest upper flow
could bring a few showers to the area later today. Ceilings will
lower again this evening with MVFR ceilings possible by mid
evening and IFR ceilings possible by 06z. A cold front will cross
the area this evening and overnight. There are some significant
timing issues between HiRes guidance and global models regarding
the wind shift. Leaned toward the faster HiRes guidance for
timing. Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible tonight
along and behind the front. GFS fcst soundings show mid level
lapse rates near 8.0 degrees and K index values near 40. Added
thunder for southern TAf sites after 09z. 43


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CST Tue Feb 4 2020/

DISCUSSION...
Main focus this forecast package will be the timing of a strong
cold front still progged to cross the area from north to south
Tuesday night. Also will evaluate the possibility of isolated
severe hail with thunderstorms along and behind the front as
suggested by SPC day 1 outlook with a marginal risk. Other main
issue is the possibility of a light wintry mix late Wed
night/Thurs morning. In the longer range looking at another fropa
potentially Saturday...and unsettled conditions early next week
with region returning to the warm sector. More details below.

Reilly

SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday]...
Moisture trapped beneath a capping inversion has created cloudy
skies over much of the area this morning but drier air above the
inversion level will mix toward the surface and some peeks of sun
will be possible by mid afternoon. The flow aloft is out of the
southwest and water vapor imagery shows a weak disturbance over
northern Mexico and this feature should arrive by late afternoon
and coupled with warm air advection should produce a few showers
later today. 850 temps support high temperatures in the upper 70`s
to lower 80`s and due to the warm start leaned toward the warmer
side of guidance. A cold front over North Texas will sag southward
very slowly today and tonight. The NAM12 and HiRes NMM and 08z
HRRR are aggressive with bringing the front southward tonight and
close to the coast by 12z Wednesday. Leaned toward the faster
guidance but confidence in the frontal timing is low. The front
will trigger some showers this evening but precipitation will
transition to a mix of showers and thunderstorms by mid evening as
lift both along and behind the front increases, aided by
favorable jet dynamics. Mid level lapse rates between 7.5 - 8.0
degrees would favor some hail with any stronger storms that could
develop.

On Wednesday, patchy light rain will continue behind the front
during the morning before drying commences in the afternoon. The
front will be well offshore by mid day and much colder air will
surge into SE TX behind the front. High temperatures will struggle
to warm into the upper 40`s over the north and depending on the
frontal timing, could warm to near 70 along the coast before falling
in the wake of the front. 43

LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Tuesday]...
Wednesday night...Cold air continues to filter in at all levels.
Model soundings suggest the air mass becomes supportive of a
wintry mix over time...with potentially mostly snow over far NW
counties. Some of the models...especially ECMWF and Canadian...do
in fact show a band of precipitation associated with lift with
right rear quad of upper jet and frontogentic forcing. GFS...and
NAM drier with little if any precipitation in our area. Likewise
the SREF members not showing much...no snowfall signal at all in
probabilistic guidance. Bottom line...still a chance of a wintry
mix of rain...snow and possibly sleet NW counties...including NW
Harris County and points N and W...for a period of time between
roughly midnight and 6 am Thursday. Any wintry precipitation that
does occur should be light and should mostly melt on
contact...given temperatures near or above freezing...and recent
warm weather. Will be something to watch...but not overly
concerned about any impacts at this time.

Thurday through Saturday...Few lingering showers far SE sections
early then cool and dry Thursday. Return flow on back side of
surface ridge begins on Friday...increasing moisture ahead of next
front due to drop down from the north on Saturday...likely
accompanied by showers.

Sunday through Tuesday...ECMWF and GFS both return region to the
warm sector with strenthening onshore flow...and warm front
lifting north across the area. GFS then brings yet another cold
front down from the north Tuesday...while ECMWF slower with this
feature...leaving SE TX in the warm sector. For this out
period...rain chances more uncertain...will depend on position of
fronts. While in warm sector...rainfall would be more
spotty...showery. While fronts are draped across the area...they
could focus more substatial rainfall.

Reilly

AVIATION [06Z TAF Issuance]...
A wide range of ceilings this evening (MVFR inland to VFR near
the coast) and the latest available model`s poor handling of
RA/SHRA areas is making this TAF forecast a difficult one to
figure out. Quite uncertain as to when/where periods of RA/SHRA
will develop over the next 24 hours, but for now have them mainly
in the coastal and northern TAFs. As for ceilings, have mainly
MVFR overnight with improving conditions as the day progresses
tomorrow (some spots might become VFR). Ceilings and maybe
visibilities should begin to fall starting tomorrow evening as fog
areas possible develop near the coast and the cold front begins
to move into the far northern areas in the late evening hours. As
for winds, some sites will be gusty for several more hours, then
look for decreasing speeds as the day progresses tomorrow under a
weakening gradient ahead of the front. 42

MARINE...
Strong onshore winds this morning will gradually diminish this
afternoon as the pressure gradient begins to relax as a cold front
moves into North Texas. Seas remain elevated and will be slowly
to decrease even after the winds begin to subside. The SCA for the
Gulf waters and Matagorda bay will remain in effect through 3 PM
and a SCEC is in effect for Galveston Bay through early afternoon.
Patchy fog may develop toward evening over the cooler shelf
waters and linger until the cold front crosses the coast. A cold
front will move through the area Wednesday morning a good chance
of showers and isolated thunderstorms. The cold front will bring a
brief reprieve from the strong onshore flow for a few hours
before strong offshore flow takes over late Wednesday through
Thursday. Another weak cold front will be possible Saturday night.
43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 78 43 47 32 55 / 20 50 70 30 0
Houston (IAH) 79 56 59 37 53 / 20 60 70 40 10
Galveston (GLS) 71 61 64 42 55 / 20 50 80 30 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Matagorda Bay...Waters from
Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...
Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until noon CST today for the
following zones: Galveston Bay.

&&

$$

Discussion...43
Aviation/Marine...43
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don
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The NWS has added a rain/snow mix to the forecast for northern Harris county and points north.
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