January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cpv17
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First off, Montgomery, sorry about your loss. The GFS ensembles are the only thing that look decent right now. The operationals look bad and so does the EPS. And even the GEFS isn’t looking as good as it was. It has most of the cold staying up near the Midwest and Great Lakes region.
harp
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This is so confusing. I hear one day: This is looking good. The next day: Nah, not so much. I read MJO looks like it's moving in the right direction. PNA may be going positive, etc. It's difficult to have any expectations when things seem to change from day to day. I'm sure winter weather lovers are just as frustrated as I am. Arrgghh!!!
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Because people live and die by each model run. I haven’t wavered off my prediction of a cold end to January and start to February.

When models go into chaos with ups and downs so do the weather forums. Storm2k is no different. A lot of absolutist takes based on model runs instead of looking at old school forecasting and all the tools available.
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tireman4
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Models will flip flop. They always do. Be patient.
Cromagnum
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Upper 70s in a couple days. Gross by January standards.
vci_guy2003
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How is climate change affecting arctic outbreaks? Are we going to get less of them?
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MontgomeryCoWx
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vci_guy2003 wrote: Sun Jan 12, 2020 9:20 pm How is climate change affecting arctic outbreaks? Are we going to get less of them?
Well if you believe the poles are warming, one would expect more severe Arctic outbreaks more frequently due to volatility and in places one would not typically see them.

In reality, it’s not as simple as I just made it, and this is more of a conversation over a bottle of bourbon.

We would need to analyze the stratosphere, troposphere and how our traditional ingredients (ocean patterns) for cold are affected.
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Katdaddy
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A thunderstorm is moving onshore near Galveston, TX headed NE toward Galveston Bay this morning.
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snowman65
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Anyone else having problems accessing the GFS? Hopefully they are recalibrating it to be a lot more reliable outside 3 days :lol: :lol:
Cpv17
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snowman65 wrote: Mon Jan 13, 2020 11:20 am Anyone else having problems accessing the GFS? Hopefully they are recalibrating it to be a lot more reliable outside 3 days :lol: :lol:
Yep. 12z is having issues.
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