January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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MontgomeryCoWx
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harp wrote: Mon Jan 06, 2020 11:37 pm The GFS has trended less and less cold air each of the last several runs. As a result, the frozen precip is now gone. It was about the only eye candy we have had this year and was fun while it lasted!
This is warmer? Looks in the same ballpark to me...

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With that posted, stop focusing on the surface output, and look at the fact there have been SEVERAL runs in a row of a cold front arriving on the 16th. Each run is going to deliver different strengths of that High. What’s encouraging is each run doesn’t seem to be East based which makes sense given the upper air pattern it keeps delivering.

EPO is negative and PNA is relaxing. NAO is neutral to slightly positive.
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mcheer23
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12z is cold with another winter storm across Texas.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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6 of the last 7 runs showing some sort of Winter Storm for Texas. I'd like to see it on Sunday before I get the least bit excited.

Every single GFS run since Sunday evening has shown cold fronts of varying degrees, albeit all of them would be enjoyable for me with highs in the upper 30s on the warmest one. Only difference with the latest one is it brings the front in Wednesday evening.

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MontgomeryCoWx
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What's even more interesting is if the Winter Storm panned out for us, it would fall on the 2 year anniversary of our last "significant Winter event".... January 16th, 2018.
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mcheer23
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Tue Jan 07, 2020 11:08 am What's even more interesting is if the Winter Storm panned out for us, it would fall on the 2 year anniversary of our last "significant Winter event".... January 16th, 2018.
I remember that. Everything in Sugar Land was shut down, people were even going the wrong way on the freeways!
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MontgomeryCoWx
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mcheer23 wrote: Tue Jan 07, 2020 11:17 am
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Tue Jan 07, 2020 11:08 am What's even more interesting is if the Winter Storm panned out for us, it would fall on the 2 year anniversary of our last "significant Winter event".... January 16th, 2018.
I remember that. Everything in Sugar Land was shut down, people were even going the wrong way on the freeways!
Hahaha, I remember watching that on TV. Houston gonna Houston when it gets snowy/icy. :lol:
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Kingwood36
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The maps i seen doesnt show a winter storm near houston just rain..
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don
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The maps i seen doesnt show a winter storm near houston just rain..
Not that it really matters this far out but the 12z GFS does show frozen precip along i-10 and north.
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Any thoughts on Friday's weather? I saw a graphic on Twitter showing a "possible" tornado threat.
redneckweather
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Tue Jan 07, 2020 11:08 am What's even more interesting is if the Winter Storm panned out for us, it would fall on the 2 year anniversary of our last "significant Winter event".... January 16th, 2018.
That was a good winter weather event for us up here in central Montgomery County. The road in front of my house remained white throughout the day with blowing snow and a high temp of 25 degrees that day. I had snow on the ground 2 days later and killed a doe with my muzzleloader with snow still on the ground....in Southeast, Texas.😃
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