January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead

[mcheer23]

New Years day looks like a cool and wet one!


https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep4 ... 1577464634

[Cpv17]

The 12z Euro is looking good for some much needed rain!!

[Ptarmigan]

A start of a new decade.

[harp]

0Z GFS has that sub zero air lined up all along the Canadian border and northern Plains, but it WILL NOT budge south. It's stuck there. Frustrating.

[srainhoutx]

If the 12Z European model is correct, a shot of that bitter cold air that is building in Alaska heads toward the Gulf in about 7 to 10 days. I see the Polar Vortex is shifting away from Alaska and beginning to set up East in Canada. Perhaps this is a signal that the pattern is relaxing that has been responsible for flooding the Lower 48 with mild Pacific air.

[Cpv17]

I see both the Euro and GFS now have the heaviest rains to our south and east for the New Years system .. bad trend to see.

[Cpv17]

The overnight 0z Euro looked good for cold!! Bad thing is that it looks like the chances for rain for the New Years system that looked so promising the past several days is now fading away.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Again, my time period looks like it might be nails on.

I’m horrible at predicting actual winter weather events, but I can follow the cold across the globe.

[Cpv17]

Again, my time period looks like it might be nails on.

I’m horrible at predicting actual winter weather events, but I can follow the cold across the globe.

Well you know a lot more about weather than most of the people on here lol including myself. I know about half of what you know haha

[DoctorMu]

GFS brings cold to the east, while Canadian leaves the cold in the west.

12Z Euro still bringing significant cold into the plains after Jan 7.

Three completely different solutions over the next 10-12 days.

"Uncertainty" then is the word of the day.

[Cpv17]

We need rain more than cold and our New Years system that looked so promising on the models for so many days is now just about toast for our area.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Interesting set up coming if you believe the GEFS

[harp]

Interesting set up coming if you believe the GEFS

Explain, please.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Interesting set up coming if you believe the GEFS

Explain, please.

Negative PNA, WPO, EPO and a NAO trending negative. The only thing about that setup I don’t particularly like is how negative the PNA is, but we can still work with it.

It’s a setup that should deliver cold to us and if we can cut off a system over the Baja, we are in the game for some winter weather.

[harp]

That's what I thought. Thanks for the response!

[harp]

Interesting stuff. May be a late winter this year according to this. Worth watching since things are so boring at the moment.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_cont ... e=emb_logo

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Interesting stuff. May be a late winter this year according to this. Worth watching since things are so boring at the moment.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_cont ... e=emb_logo

The progression is coming. This guy seems to think it’s slower but he sees the same thing I do.

[cperk]

Happy New Year to all my Wx infinity forum members and their families,and i am looking forward to discussing all the wintry weather we will be receiving in the coming weeks.

[Ptarmigan]

Interesting set up coming if you believe the GEFS

Explain, please.

Negative PNA, WPO, EPO and a NAO trending negative. The only thing about that setup I don’t particularly like is how negative the PNA is, but we can still work with it.

It’s a setup that should deliver cold to us and if we can cut off a system over the Baja, we are in the game for some winter weather.

Negative West Pacific Oscillation (WPO), East Pacific Oscillation (EPO), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) tend to have ridging over Eastern Russian (WPO), Alaska (EPO), and Greenland (NAO). The ridging tend to bring cold air southward.

One can have positive NAO and negative EPO/WPO and still have cold blasts. That happened in December 1983 and February 1989 freeze.

[Kingwood36]

What happend to this rain we were suppose to get today?