December 2019: Warming Trend/Weekend Rain/Christmas Outlook

[Katdaddy]

Lots of sun, lower humidity, and cooler temps to start December 2019.

[oleander]

As we begin December, I just have one question: Where did 2019 go? Wow!

[DoctorMu]

Fabulous weather for the next week. Seasonal to slightly above average temps with sunny to partly cloudy skies. Store it in a bottle for summer!

[CrashTestDummy]

Happy end of hurricane season, all!

[snowman65]

Looks like if you want cold weather in December you'll have to move.

[Kingwood36]

Looks like if you want cold weather in December you'll have to move.

Was just going to ask if any cold weather was on the way...

[srainhoutx]

You folks enjoy the beautiful SE Texas weather on this first day of Meteorological Winter. Winter Storm Warnings have just been issued here in the Smokey Mountains. Higher elevations along the Tennessee/North Carolina could see a foot of snowfall by the time it winds down tomorrow night. I did some preparations yesterday and stocked up on food just in case we get stuck on the mountain for a couple of days. If it plays out, I'll post pictures tomorrow...

[Belmer]

While it's just two days into meteorological winter, and under three weeks till true winter... don't look for any 'winter-like' conditions at least through the middle of the month. Pattern looks rather quiet with a +PNA, -EPO and somewhat of a neutral/- NAO. Those conditions keep the weather here in SETX mild/seasonal with no real big fluctuations.

If you're a cold weather lover, November certainly was a tease (as it was last year). It should go without saying, but winter forecasting is one of the more challenging seasons to forecast (IMO). Not just long term, but medium range as well. It can turn volatile in a hurry within a few days out. With that said, there is beginning to be some hints that the pattern will adjust to a more favorable pattern as we near the end of the year and flip to 2020... but take that with a grain of salt at this time.

Meanwhile, this type of pattern will work well in Steve's favor...

[harp]

Umm, you boys in Texas need to take a look at the 18Z GFS.....

[Ptarmigan]

Umm, you boys in Texas need to take a look at the 18Z GFS.....

What hour? GFS goes up to 384 hours.

[harp]

Umm, you boys in Texas need to take a look at the 18Z GFS.....

What hour? GFS goes up to 384 hours.

Starting around hour 258.

[Ptarmigan]

Umm, you boys in Texas need to take a look at the 18Z GFS.....

What hour? GFS goes up to 384 hours.

Starting around hour 258.

Thank you Harp. I just looked and there is a cold blast. Too early to tell and can change. Nice to see though.

[Belmer]

Umm, you boys in Texas need to take a look at the 18Z GFS.....

Over 48 hours of ice/sleet in Oklahoma and nearing 3 inches of ice in north Texas, including Dallas? Ha! Let's absolutely hope that doesn't verify.
850mb temps barley go below freezing past OK/TX border. No frozen precipitation down here, would be just a cold rain.

Amusing to look at, but don't count on it. An event like that would absolutely cripple OK and northern TX for weeks and would not be a fun Christmas for those folks.

[harp]

The 0Z completely loses it it. Not a trace! LOL!!!

[Katdaddy]

More beautiful weather across SE TX with slightly warmer highs after a chilly start this morning with temps mostly in the 30s and low 40s except 51F on Galveston Island.

[srainhoutx]

I see the possibility of a volatile weather pattern shaping up next week across the Region. The ensemble guidance suggests a deep mid latitude trough across the Plains and several disturbances as well as cold fronts arrive every couple of days. While nothing extremely cold jumps out in the medium/longer range, my hunch is the Western Pacific Typhoon and a wobbly Stratospheric Polar Vortex may shake up the upper air pattern across the Northern Hemisphere.

[Cpv17]

Best looking run of the Euro I’ve seen in quite some time for SETX.

[harp]

Best looking run of the Euro I’ve seen in quite some time for SETX.

Can you post?

[Cpv17]

Best looking run of the Euro I’ve seen in quite some time for SETX.

Can you post?

Well it doesn’t really have any major cold, but it has a good rain event for us next Wednesday. About 1-3”

[snowman65]

Well the latest GFS is VERY interesting starting around mid December....yikes....