November 2019: Thanksgiving Outlook

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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snowman65
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Re: November 2019: Cold Front Thursday/Stronger Arctic Cold Front Monday

Post by snowman65 » Thu Nov 07, 2019 10:46 am

Next week not looking quite as cold as it looked yesterday...Is it sliding east?

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Re: November 2019: Cold Front Thursday/Stronger Arctic Cold Front Monday

Post by srainhoutx » Thu Nov 07, 2019 10:59 am

snowman65 wrote:
Thu Nov 07, 2019 10:46 am
Next week not looking quite as cold as it looked yesterday...Is it sliding east?
If you're looking at the latest GFS, clouds and energy associated with a meandering Baja Upper low are extremely volatile right now with the various models schemes regarding temperature forecasts that are sensible. For instance the 12Z ICON suggests 21F Wednesday morning in Montgomery County and a freeze down to the Coast. We likely will not have a reasonable idea until Sunday regarding low temperatures, exactly how that mid/upper level low over Baja will impact the sensible weather as well as any NW/Western Gulf Low that may attempt to organize behind that Arctic front. Tricky and changeable forecast ahead that is going to be challenging. If you haven't read the morning AFD from forecaster Luchs, it is well worth digging into those challenges from the forecasting standpoint.
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Re: November 2019: Cold Front Thursday/Stronger Arctic Cold Front Monday

Post by mcheer23 » Thu Nov 07, 2019 11:14 am

Looks like the NWS bumped up the rainfall totals for today.

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Re: November 2019: Cold Front Thursday/Stronger Arctic Cold Front Monday

Post by Cpv17 » Thu Nov 07, 2019 11:53 am

snowman65 wrote:
Thu Nov 07, 2019 10:46 am
Next week not looking quite as cold as it looked yesterday...Is it sliding east?
The strength of the high pressure coming out of Canada isn’t as strong. Therefore not as cold. Models do this all the time at this range though. They show the cold a week+ out, lose it in the middle range, & slowly bring it back inside of 2 days. That’s usually how it works. What you want to see is a 1050+ mb high going into Montana dropping down the side of the Rockies. Well that is if you want to see some big time cold. The GFS at one point had a 1055mb high. Now it’s only showing 1045mb.
Last edited by Cpv17 on Thu Nov 07, 2019 12:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: November 2019: Cold Front Thursday/Stronger Arctic Cold Front Monday

Post by tireman4 » Thu Nov 07, 2019 11:55 am

266
FXUS64 KHGX 071611
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1011 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2019

.UPDATE...
Have updated the short term forecast this morning to account for
current radar trends with showers and isolated thunderstorms
already impacting areas west of I-45 this morning. The surface
front is just north of our farthest northern counties this
morning, with a line of showers and some isolated thunderstorms
draped along and slightly ahead of the surface front. Expect the
front to reach our northern counties here in the next hour or two,
but the actual colder and drier airmass will not fully advect
into the region until the overnight hours. The surface front
should reach the metro by 3 PM this afternoon and the coast closer
to 6 PM. The main concern with with the front will be the
possibility of some isolated heavy downpours, mainly over our
southwestern zones, essentially along and southwest of I-10 and
I-45. This favored area is where precipitable water values are
near the 2 inch mark, surface based CAPE exceeds 1500 J/kg, and
where the best surface convergence should ensue as the front
pushed further south. Storm rainfall totals from this afternoon
through early this evening could range from 1 to 3 inches over
this region, with some isolated higher totals possible. Short
term guidance is in pretty good agreement, showing the best chance
for training showers and storms across this area. After about 10
PM this evening, mostly light rain can be anticipated behind the
front, mainly developing along the 850 mb frontal boundary.

Hathaway

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 556 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2019/...

.AVIATION...
A cold front and associated showers and possible thunderstorms
will move across SE TX today (winds shift to the NW and N and
possibly become gusty 15-17Z CLL area, 18-20Z IAH area and 22-00Z
GLS area). MVFR/IFR ceilings and/or visibilities should develop
and linger behind the front. Carrying MVFR ceilings/visibilities
with showers into tonight and tomorrow. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 70 46 53 40 64 / 70 40 40 10 0
Houston (IAH) 75 49 52 44 63 / 70 60 30 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 73 54 55 51 62 / 80 80 60 10 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Friday
for the following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from Friday morning through
Friday afternoon for the following zones: Galveston
Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Friday
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport
to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

UPDATE...08

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Re: November 2019: Cold Front Thursday/Stronger Arctic Cold Front Monday

Post by srainhoutx » Thu Nov 07, 2019 12:46 pm

Midday Thursday weather briefing from Jeff:

Strong cold front will be moving into the region this afternoon.

Swaths of heavy rainfall have developed ahead of this front and showers and thunderstorms will continue into the overnight hours and early Friday.

Radar shows an extensive area of showers and thunderstorms along and north of I-10 and ahead of a strong cold front that is currently moving through central TX. Rainfall amounts of 1.0-1.5 inches have already occurred with the activity thus far, and with continued development through the afternoon into the evening hours, rainfall amounts will need to be raised over the area…especially south of I-10. Widespread rainfall amounts of 2-3 inches will be possible along and south of I-10 with isolated totals of 4 inches. Areas north of I-10 will likely see 1-2 inches with isolated totals upwards of 3.0 inches.

A strong cold front will move across the area this afternoon and evening with temperatures quickly falling into the 50’s and 40’s overnight. Rain will linger behind the front and into Friday morning before deeper northwesterly flow aloft ends rain chances midday Friday. Friday will be cold and raw with gusty north winds, clouds, and temperatures holding fairly steady in the 40’s and low 50’s. Skies begin to clear Friday night into Saturday morning and this will allow many places to fall into the 30’s.

Early Next Week:
The front today will be an appetizer for the main course early next week as an arctic front blasts down the plains and sweeps offshore likely on Monday. A very cold air mass will surge into TX temperature departures from normal of potentially 15-25 degrees. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany this front and rain will linger behind the front into Monday night. At this time, it appears that most of the moisture will have moved out of the area before thermal profiles are favorable to support anything other than rain. This front is still over 3 days away so there is time to fine tune the low temperatures, but freezing temperatures all the way to US 59 look likely and some areas could see a hard freeze by the middle of next week.
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Re: November 2019: Cold Front Thursday/Stronger Arctic Cold Front Monday

Post by srainhoutx » Thu Nov 07, 2019 1:08 pm

The 12Z Euro suggests freezing temperatures into Metro Houston Wednesday morning.
Attachments
11072019 12Z 144 Wed AM 2 mt temp sfct_us_city_hou.png
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Re: November 2019: Cold Front Thursday/Stronger Arctic Cold Front Monday

Post by Rip76 » Thu Nov 07, 2019 1:50 pm

Wow it is coming down in Clear Lake/Webster.

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Re: November 2019: Cold Front Thursday/Stronger Arctic Cold Front Monday

Post by Cromagnum » Thu Nov 07, 2019 1:54 pm

Getting feisty on the southern side now

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Re: November 2019: Cold Front Thursday/Stronger Arctic Cold Front Monday

Post by Cpv17 » Thu Nov 07, 2019 4:35 pm

srainhoutx wrote:
Thu Nov 07, 2019 1:08 pm
The 12Z Euro suggests freezing temperatures into Metro Houston Wednesday morning.
This front is being very hyped up. It better end up being colder than that if it wants to live up to the hype. 32/33 degrees is what the Euro is show for central Wharton County and we already hit that mark here earlier this fall. Earlier on I was thinking mid 20’s for my area, but it seems the models were overdoing the strength of the high.

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