September 2019 - Warm End of September

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
stormlover
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12z euro says not so fast and tries to develop a tropical wave headed towards Texas

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTROPA ... floop.html
Cpv17
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stormlover wrote: Wed Sep 25, 2019 2:28 pm 12z euro says not so fast and tries to develop a tropical wave headed towards Texas

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTROPA ... floop.html
Yeah, but there’s hardly any precipitation with it. Euro only has about 1” for SETX through 10 days.
stormlover
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still something to watch and a long ways out.
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srainhoutx
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Will need to keep an eye on a surge of deep tropical moisture headed toward the Texas Coast overnight into tomorrow. PW's of 2 inches, possibly near 2.5 look to arrive with a stronger onshore flow and atmospheric conditions favorable for some higher rainfall rate where stronger showers/storms do occur. I do not see anything near what we experienced last week, but those folks that do get under the heavier rain could see a couple of inches in hour. Saturday looks like the best chance to see the best areal coverage for rainfall.
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tireman4
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00
FXUS64 KHGX 261148
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
648 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2019

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Patchy fog has developed from KDWH to KCXO and K6R3 with a few
other areas towards K11R having fog. GOES microphysics RGB imagery
shows this patchy fog developing in other areas. Any visibility
restriction from fog should be in the 2 to 5 mile range. For now
the fog has not affected any other TAFs except for KCXO. We do
expect VFR conditions to continue. Moisture will increase tonight
into Friday morning so we may need to look harder at ceilings/fog
in the extended portions of the TAFs.

Overpeck

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 349 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2019/...

.SHORT TERM [Today and Tonight]...

Patchy fog has developed from Conroe to Cleveland this morning. This
fog may expand some but there are little signs of that happening on
the GOES microphysics RGB imagery. Overall it looks like today will
be a repeat of yesterday. GOES derived precip water imagery shows
low precip water values over the area indicating drier air and area
AMDAR soundings from airplanes show very dry air from 900mb up to
600mb. Given mixing during the day, doubtful there will be much in
the way of cloud cover for today.

There is a plume of higher moisture with precip water values above 2
inches down in the west central Gulf to the Yucatan Peninsula. This
moisture should begin to advect into the Upper Texas Coastal areas
tonight into Friday morning. We might see shower activity increase
after midnight tonight over the Coastal Bend into Matagorda Bay. The
NAM may be a tad fast with this advection of moisture but it looks
like most WRF model runs and HREF are showing an increase in shower
activity. As a result the forecast will reflect an increase in rain
chances for these areas.

Overpeck


.MARINE...

Overall there is not much change in the marine forecast. Light to
moderate southerly winds should continue through the end of the work
week with low seas. Southerly winds should increase Friday through
the weekend with a surge in moisture from the Gulf. This will allow
for scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday. Winds may increase
to around 15 to 20 knots with seas building close to 6 feet. Small
craft exercise caution may be needed over the weekend for the
offshore waters. Stronger southerly winds may persist into Monday.
This increase in winds may also cause slight elevated tide levels as
well as the threat for rip currents. We will need to monitor for
these conditions as we go into the weekend.

Overpeck


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 95 72 93 74 94 / 0 0 30 10 50
Houston (IAH) 90 73 90 75 90 / 0 0 30 20 50
Galveston (GLS) 87 80 88 81 88 / 10 10 20 30 50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...Overpeck
stormlover
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http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTROPA ... floop.html

we shall see but euro shows tropical wave again headed towards Texas next week.
Cpv17
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stormlover wrote: Thu Sep 26, 2019 2:58 pm http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTROPA ... floop.html

we shall see but euro shows tropical wave again headed towards Texas next week.
Meh, looks boring.
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Still not seeing a "true" cold front yet on the models. The GFS was indicating a strong cold front during the beginning of October for several runs earlier this week, but that has since disappeared for the most part. Now the GFS and ECMWF, for the most part, are pushing the colder air east. Looking at mid/upper-level flow most models are actually indicating a pretty zonal setup for the foreseeable future. For me personally, I enjoy the warmer weather, but I know many here are looking for that first feeling of fall.
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Cpv17
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This CAG feature has my attention. It’s definitely something to keep an eye on.
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Katdaddy
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Scattered showers streaming inland across Matagorda and Brazoria Counties this morning. Additional scattered showers and a few thunderstorms this weekend with an increase in tropical moisture. Onward to October and hopefully some cooler weather.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 271547
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1047 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2019

.UPDATE...
Scattered showers moving onshore at around 20 mph to the north.
Many of these cells are dropping around a few hundredths to
around a half an inch of rain on their northerly passage. A day
very similar to the past few with the only difference being
slightly more precipitation coverage across the western forecast
area. A slug of near 2.2 inch pwat moisture moving in from the
Gulf between the bays will be the impetus for continued morning
showers / afternoon embedded (isolated) thunderstorms along and
west of the I-45 corridor. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2019/

AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Mostly VFR, with some chances for showers this afternoon, but best
chances for rain will be south/west of the terminals today. IFR
conditions are in place just west of CLL, and will have to be
watched carefully for the next few hours. Also potential for some
brief MVFR at LBX/SGR/HOU, but confidence is low enough that the
TAF stays VFR at all three. Briefly saw some restrictive fog at
CXO, but dewpoint has appeared to drop low enough to prevent
further occurrences this morning.

PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 355 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2019/...

DISCUSSION...

An increasingly unseasonable ridge over the northeastern Gulf
coast will dominate much of the forecast period, leading to
warmer than typical temperatures ahead of us into early October.
However, we`ll both open and close the forecast period with
weaknesses in the upper air pattern, which should allow for surges
of Gulf moisture and higher rain chances this weekend, and
potentially again as early as next Friday, if moisture return is
strong. Some guidance even suggests our first cold front of the
season at the end of next week, but...let`s not get too attached
to that idea just yet.

SHORT TERM [Through Saturday]...

GOES-East shows upper lows over the Bahamas as well as the
California/Arizona/Baja/Sonora border region. For us in between
the two, there is a relatively weak upper ridge in place. Of
course, even though it`s a fairly subtle ridge relative to the
lows bookending it, we`re still looking at something that is more
reminiscent of late summer than early fall...but more on that
later.

The upper low to the west looks to eject northeastward while it
shears out. I don`t expect much direct impact in our area from
this feature, but it does look to break the extended ridging
pattern we`ve been seeing and allow for a flow northward of Gulf
moisture into the area. As such, precipitable water looks to
increase to around or above two inches, with the highest values
well to the west of Houston. We should see rain chances increase
accordingly. That looks to be about all for synoptic support for
rain, though, so it will take daytime heating and mesoscale
opportunities for convergence to get things going, and should
ultimately mitigate to some extent updrafts` staying ability, and
rainfall totals.

LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Friday]...

By Sunday, we`re looking for the Gulf Coast ridge aloft to
strengthen and work its way back westward some, probably in
response to the digging upper trough dropping into the Pacific
Northwest. Because of this, I`m going ahead and holding with
high temperature in the lower half of the 90s for the back half
of the weekend (and clear into early October). And, as the ridge
builds back after our brief dalliance in the short term, we can
crank down rain chances early next week, as well.

That next upper trough doesn`t look to dig very far, instead
looking to bring some big early season snowfall to the northern
Rockies. Buuuuuut, it should at least manage to dent the summer-
like trough setup some, as 500 mb heights are progged to at least
fall out of the 590s(?) around Thursday.

Now, from here, this is where guidance consensus really
disappears, and though the impact on this strong ridging is
roughly the same, it occurs in different ways. On one hand, the
GFS and Canadian are fans of a strong trailing high moving from
the US-Canada border into the Great Lakes region shoving a cold
front to the Gulf Coast, along with blessed, blessed north winds
and at least modestly cooler air into our area.

The buzzkill Euro, on the other hand, is hearing none of this. It
breaks down the ridge`s strong hold on the area by letting an
inverted Gulf upper trough drift northward towards the Rio Grande
Valley. While both scenarios would increase rain chances and
likely tamp down daytime highs, there`s only one way we`re getting
even a sniff of sub-70 low temps, and the Euro`s way isn`t it.

While my heart yearns for what the GFS and Canadian are selling,
I`m not sure how much I can trust that surge of colder air just
yet. Outside of Imelda, the recent trend across the southern tier
has been hot and dry, and I`d expect that to pretty quickly modify
any incoming air mass, especially one lacking upper support. So, I
went ahead and nudged up low temps above the model consensus.

MARINE...

Conditions are very near SCEC tonight with solid southerly winds.
Those winds should back off a little bit through the day today,
but should increase again overnight, and SCEC conditions appear
more likely to begin then. Shower and thunderstorm potential also
appears higher for the weekend, but then looks to back down again
for much of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 94 75 94 77 94 / 30 10 40 10 30
Houston (IAH) 89 77 91 79 90 / 40 20 30 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 88 82 89 84 88 / 40 20 40 20 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Update...31
ccbluewater
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Very nice Thunderstorm at my office in Tomball!
Cpv17
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Just had a torrential downpour for a good 20 minutes at my job in Rosenberg. I’m sure we picked up at least 2” if not more.
mckinne63
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It is coming down pretty hard here in Stafford!
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DoctorMu
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Seabreeze approaching work and home. Expect it to hit the wall in 3...2...1...
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snowman65
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Has there ever been a tropical cyclone enter the gulf after Nov 30? With the way this season has been and with no cool fronts on the horizon, I would think that this would be a prime year for that to happen....?
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Kludge
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I'm thinkin' we might want to change the title of this thread. :roll: :?

Oh well... never mind. I'm hoping for a wet October, though.
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Rip76
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Looks like we may see a little this evening.
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DoctorMu
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Kludge wrote: Sat Sep 28, 2019 10:13 am I'm thinkin' we might want to change the title of this thread. :roll: :?

Oh well... never mind. I'm hoping for a wet October, though.
Don't count on it. :cry:
Cpv17
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DoctorMu wrote: Sat Sep 28, 2019 3:56 pm
Kludge wrote: Sat Sep 28, 2019 10:13 am I'm thinkin' we might want to change the title of this thread. :roll: :?

Oh well... never mind. I'm hoping for a wet October, though.
Don't count on it. :cry:
I really don’t see anything worth talking about on the horizon. No fronts, no rain...nothing. Yawn. Sucks for a weather enthusiast such as myself. One of the things I live for is exciting weather. At least I got to see a good thundershower yesterday at work lol but it’s always better to see that at home.
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