September 2019 - Warm End of September

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Ptarmigan
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Scott747 wrote: Mon Sep 23, 2019 6:52 pm Models are really in a crazy mood now.

The GFS has been showing some really lowering of pressures across the western Caribbean in the long range.

18z has a system in the longer range (unrelated to Karen) that comes out of the Caribbean and hits around Corpus as a hurricane.

Just crazy seeing runs this late in the season favoring the Western gulf, even if it is in the longer range...
I take long range forecast models with a grain of salt.
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srainhoutx
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As mentioned around mid September, a very conducive Hemispheric Pattern for the Atlantic Basin has arrived. The MJO is in Phase 1 as well as lower pressures and rising air and the strongest Convectively Couple Kelvin Wave of the Hurricane Season is right overhead. I am not surprised to see the Tropics active and I am certainly not surprised the computer models are indicating activity. As that strong CCKW passes, I suspect we will see additional development in the Atlantic Basin. Fingers crossed for that first cold front real soon... ;)
09232019 MJO diagram_40days_forecast_GEFS_member.gif
09232019 MJO ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif
09232019 MJO twc_globe_mjo_vp200.png
09232019 CCKW twc_mjoCCKW_vp200.png
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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The current pattern isn’t typical of one we see in late September. Have to look at the pattern, not the calendar.

On another note - it’s nice to see everything looks green and alive again. There are some brown cypress trees with bright green tips. It’s almost like springtime in the fall...
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Thankfully it's the very end of the long range....

0z GFS has Harvey part II. A little weaker on landfall/overall rain and a little further s.
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Scott747 wrote: Tue Sep 24, 2019 12:45 am Thankfully it's the very end of the long range....

0z GFS has Harvey part II. A little weaker on landfall/overall rain and a little further s.
With lowering pressures in the region around the W. Caribbean/Yucatán and a SE ridge there’s no telling what will happen. Fun model watching times ahead.
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Cpv17 wrote: Tue Sep 24, 2019 12:53 am
Scott747 wrote: Tue Sep 24, 2019 12:45 am Thankfully it's the very end of the long range....

0z GFS has Harvey part II. A little weaker on landfall/overall rain and a little further s.
With lowering pressures in the region around the W. Caribbean/Yucatán and a SE ridge there’s no telling what will happen. Fun model watching times ahead.
Correct. I'd guess that the euro over the next few days will begin picking up on the CA system. After that I still have a hard time believing the ridging would remain that strong for so long heading into mid October.
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Katdaddy
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Hot and mostly sunny skies across much of SE TX the next fews. Some isolated showers and a thunderstorm possibly across SW portions of SE TX. Moisture returns late this week and weekend with scattered showers and thunderstorms.

The tropics remain active but no concern for the TX Coast for the next 5 days. A small area of disturbed weather will move across S GOM and BOC into MX. The current NHC forecast still show a turn W or WSW toward FL this weekend however this 5 days out and the track will be depend on the strength of high pressure ridge to the N and NW of Karen.

The Houston-Galveston NWS mention the long range models hinting at our first cold front in 2 weeks which could easily change:

With the beginning of autumn yesterday, our minds of course have started to wonder about the potential for the first cold frontal passage of the season. Global models are hinting at this possibility for the end of next week or beginning of next weekend...but if 240-hour model forecasts have taught us anything, it`s that now is not the time to get your hopes up just yet.
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Scott747 wrote: Tue Sep 24, 2019 1:09 am
Cpv17 wrote: Tue Sep 24, 2019 12:53 am
Scott747 wrote: Tue Sep 24, 2019 12:45 am Thankfully it's the very end of the long range....

0z GFS has Harvey part II. A little weaker on landfall/overall rain and a little further s.
With lowering pressures in the region around the W. Caribbean/Yucatán and a SE ridge there’s no telling what will happen. Fun model watching times ahead.
Correct. I'd guess that the euro over the next few days will begin picking up on the CA system. After that I still have a hard time believing the ridging would remain that strong for so long heading into mid October.
That 00z GFS is wild. I don't think I've seen a modeled storm loop around to the backside of an incoming trough and then continue westward.
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tireman4
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Well, and some folks will have to correct me if I am wrong, but October 2004, did we not have a ridging in effect. I say this because it was hot the whole month. I record heat..even on Halloween..88 degrees...
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tireman4
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00
FXUS64 KHGX 241107
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
607 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
A mixture of IFR to VFR ceilings this morning across the SE TX
terminals. Anticipate patchy fog to fill in and ceilings to lower
potentially as low as LIFR at isolated sites before sunrise.
Should see improvement shortly after sunrise. Otherwise, winds
should be light out of the southeast today. Most showers should
stay to the west of any terminals this afternoon, with CLL
standing the best chance for impacts if any. At the time the
probability of CLL seeing showers looks low enough given the
recent runs of high-res guidance that have taken out any VCSH
mention. A low SCT-BKN deck looks to potentially build back in
during the early morning hours, with the development of patchy fog
once again possible.

Hathaway

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 405 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019/...

.SHORT TERM [Today Through Tonight]...
Fairly quiet in the short term, with patchy to areas of fog being
the main focus this morning. Dew point depressions are slowly
closing to between one to two degrees mostly along and north of
I-10. Visibilities could lower to between 1 to 5 miles at times,
with isolated locations potentially impacted by visibilities of
less than one mile at times. Most of the fog should burn off
quickly after sunrise. Surface ridging is continuing to build in
from the east, bringing with it much drier precipitable water
values (PWs) as seen in the GOES-16 total precipitable water
imagery. PWs of less than 1.5 inches should continue to push in
from the east today and into tomorrow. Areas west of I-45 will see
another day of PWs closer to 1.6 to 1.8 inches. Short term
guidance is continuing to trend drier, with only a slight chance
for showers today from Matagorda to Brazos County and westward.
That said, the region should see ample sunshine by the afternoon
hours, allowing high temperatures to rise into the low to mid 90s.
Low temperatures tonight will fall into the upper 60s to 70s,
with drier air in place and radiational cooling in full swing
under the influence of the ridge.

Hathaway

&&

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Tuesday]...
Overall, the initial trend for the area continues to be
characterized by the presence of upper-level ridging over the
central US and surface high pressure over SE Texas. The reduced
onshore moisture transport which will hinder the development of
diurnally-driven convection through mid-week slowly begins to
subside by Wednesday, and precipitation coverage becomes more
widespread by the weekend. On Wednesday, global model guidance is
in agreement in showing the a weak disturbance embedded within
upper-level zonal flow as the upper-level ridge shifts eastward.
The positive vorticity advection (PVA) stemming from this feature
along with a brief localized plume of enhanced precipitable water
(PW) values visible on recent NAM guidance should allow for the
development of showers and thunderstorms across the western half
of the CWA. While the vorticity maximum may linger offshore,
reduced PWs otherwise will remain in place through Friday morning
and PoPs remain generally low as a result. By Saturday, enhanced
moisture transport returns as the upper-level ridge shifts
eastward. With onshore flow picking up and PWs potentially in the
2+ inch range, precipitation coverage should increase over the
weekend, with the development of stronger storms possible. The
upper-level ridge looks to build back in from the east late in the
weekend, and typical diurnally driven shower and thunderstorm
activity is to be expected.

With the beginning of autumn yesterday, our minds of course have
started to wonder about the potential for the first cold frontal
passage of the season. Global models are hinting at this possibility
for the end of next week or beginning of next weekend...but if 240-
hour model forecasts have taught us anything, it`s that now is not
the time to get your hopes up just yet.

Cady

&&

.MARINE...
Light to moderate onshore flow remains over the upper Texas Gulf
waters and across both Matagorda and Galveston Bay this morning.
Should be mostly quiet through a majority of the week, with only
a chance for showers across the Gulf waters each morning. The
chance for precipitation increases Friday as better moisture is
advected across the region. Therefore expect more widespread
coverage of showers and thunderstorms late Friday through the
weekend. Onshore flow will also increase in speed during this time
frame as the pressure gradient tightens. Winds out of the S to SE
should reach SCEC criteria by late Friday and into the early part
of next week. Seas will also build to 4 to 6 feet across the Gulf
waters during this time frame.

Hathaway

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 94 71 94 71 93 / 20 0 10 0 10
Houston (IAH) 91 72 90 72 90 / 10 0 10 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 92 79 88 79 88 / 10 10 10 0 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...08
Scott747
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Operational 12z GFS stops its silliness and looks more realistic....
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...and it still shows the Oct 4th cold front blowing through too!
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 242032
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
332 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

.SHORT TERM [Through Wednesday Afternoon)...
Showers have hung in there over the far western counties today and
was expecting these to gradually shift westward but they haven`t
yet. With the loss of heating these should wane and a mostly clear
and dry night will be on tap. Of note on the radar is a clear
signature of the broad-winged hawk migration underway. Rain chances
continue into Wednesday for some pop up showers mainly southwest of
Sealy/Freeport line. The dry air that has spread into the region
will linger on Wednesday with mid/lower level capping getting
stronger throughout the day. Temperatures should climb back up into
the upper 80s to lower 90s.

45

&&

.LONG TERM [Tomorrow night Through Tuesday Night]...
Reduced moisture levels (lower precipitable water values) will be found
across much of Southeast Texas tomorrow night through Thursday, and
expect a majority of the area to stay dry. Temperatures will remain
on the warm side on Thursday with highs mostly in the 90s (generally
2 to 5 degrees above normal). Rain chances return to the area on
Friday as onshore winds begin to strengthen and we start tapping
into portions of the deeper tropical moisture associated with the
weak area of low pressure currently lingering around and to the
north of the Yucatan Peninsula that the National Hurricane Center
is monitoring and expects to move inland over northeastern Mexico
late Friday or Saturday. Some models indicate precipitable water
values getting higher than 2 inches over the weekend, and this
could lead to some locally heavy rainfall (current September rainfall
rankings are 5th wettest at Galveston with 17.85 inches, 3rd wettest
at Houston Hobby with 11.40 inches, and 1st wettest at City of Houston
with 14.76 inches. College Station`s 2.54 inches is more than 5 inches
under their 10th wettest). Slightly lower high temperatures over the
weekend due to the rain will warm back up next week as mid/upper level
ridging builds back into the area from the east and northeast. This
pattern looks to bring drier weather back to the area Monday and
Tuesday with a majority of locations rainfree as September comes
to and end and October begins. 42

&&

.MARINE...
Light to moderate onshore winds will continue for the next several days.
Winds and seas will increase late in the week and over the weekend.
Caution flags might be needed. Look for increasing shower and thunderstorms
chances at the end of the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Winds remain relatively light across the region but afternoon
humidity values will likely dip into the upper 30 to lower 40
percent range today/Wednesday/Thursday over the northern and
northwestern counties. Although much of the area received abundant
rainfall from T.S. Imelda these northwestern and northern counties
have still got a deficit running and the KBDI across Trinity-Walker-
Grimes-Washington-Austin-Colorado counties and westward all showing
600 or greater KBDI values.

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 71 94 72 94 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 72 90 73 90 74 / 0 10 0 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 81 89 80 87 81 / 0 10 0 10 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$
Cpv17
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Not much to talk about today. Pretty boring weather day and the models were all boring today as well. Btw, the CPC isn’t buying into the cold front the first week of October. I wouldn’t get your hopes up for you guys that want cooler weather.
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Cpv17 wrote: Tue Sep 24, 2019 7:07 pm Not much to talk about today. Pretty boring weather day and the models were all boring today as well. Btw, the CPC isn’t buying into the cold front the first week of October. I wouldn’t get your hopes up for you guys that want cooler weather.
I'll take boring for $100, alex
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srainhoutx
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I see hints of a Fall cold front the first weekend of October. It's the end of September. We need someone get us started with a new Topic for October!
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Texaspirate11 wrote: Tue Sep 24, 2019 8:40 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Tue Sep 24, 2019 7:07 pm Not much to talk about today. Pretty boring weather day and the models were all boring today as well. Btw, the CPC isn’t buying into the cold front the first week of October. I wouldn’t get your hopes up for you guys that want cooler weather.
I'll take boring for $100, alex
:lol:

Love it! And, I agree.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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srainhoutx wrote: Wed Sep 25, 2019 7:18 am I see hints of a Fall cold front the first weekend of October. It's the end of September. We need someone get us started with a new Topic for October!
HALLELUJAH!
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tireman4
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090
FXUS64 KHGX 251557
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1057 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2019

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday Afternoon]...

Looking like a relatively quiet day across the area today. Onshore
flow with little change in low level moisture and mid level dry
air. Subsidence on the increase per WV this morning and don`t see
any significant changes in the short term portion of the forecast
other than perhaps to add some patchy fog to Thursday morning near
CXO.

45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 645 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2019/...





.LONG TERM [Thursday through next Wednesday]...

Thursday should stay fairly calm and dry, as convective development
will continue to be inhibited by a lack of moisture transport with
precipitable water (PW) values remaining within the 1 to 1.5 inch
range. Temperatures will continue to sit above climatological norms
for late September, with highs reaching the high 80s to low 90s at
most locations across the CWA. Convective activity will be enhanced
heading into the weekend as onshore flow becomes more amplified with
an eastward shift of surface high pressure. PW values should rise
into the 2+ inch range by Friday evening which, along with an
offshore vorticity maximum associated with the disorganized area of
low pressure located off the Yucatan peninsula, should allow for the
development more widespread diurnally driven convection with the
potential for some periods of heavier rainfall. ECMWF, GFS, and
Canadian are in fairly good agreement that the most significant
activity should occur on Saturday, although the possibility of
localized stronger storms will persist through the duration of the
weekend. By Sunday evening, an upper ridge builds back into the
area and returns us to a pattern of stagnant and unseasonably warm
conditions that will continue into the middle of next week.

Cady


.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Patchy fog may develop for KCXO this morning but that looks to be
the only terminal that may have restricted visibility. T/Td
spreads are only a degree so next couple hours could get some fog.
Otherwise, rest of the terminals look clear based on obs and
night time RGB imagery. Scattered stratocumulus should thin out
today as drier air begins to mix in the boundary layer this
afternoon. Tonight winds should become calm again and we will need
to monitor for patchy fog again.

Overpeck


.MARINE...

Light to moderate southerly winds should continue through the end of
the work week with low seas. Southerly winds do increase Friday
through the weekend with a surge in moisture from the Gulf. This
will allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday. Winds
may increase to around 15 to 20 knots with seas building close to 6
feet. Small craft exercise caution may be needed over the weekend
for the offshore waters. This increase in winds may also cause
slight elevated tide levels as well as the threat for rip currents.
We will need to monitor for these conditions as we go into the
weekend.

Overpeck



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 94 72 94 72 93 / 0 0 0 0 20
Houston (IAH) 90 73 91 76 90 / 0 0 0 0 30
Galveston (GLS) 88 79 86 80 88 / 10 10 10 20 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$


SHORT TERM...45
LONG TERM...41
DSS.........11
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DoctorMu
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TexasBreeze wrote: Tue Sep 24, 2019 12:47 pm ...and it still shows the Oct 4th cold front blowing through too!
Euro, Canadian, Ensemble are on board. Canadian now brings the front down to about Hempstead and washes it out. Time to turn off the sprinklers - put down sulfur + fungicide for brown patch! :lol:
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