September 2019 - Warm End of September

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Belmer
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Karen has a lot of obstacles to get through and overcome. Wouldn't lose sleep watching every model run. IF Karen can make it past PR into the southeastern Bahamas/Southern Atlantic, then I'll start giving it more attention.

Meanwhile, it's almost October and I'm sadly not seeing any major support for a sunny 80-85 degree day. :x
Blake
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CPC precipitation forecast favors the southern half of Texas for rain and a ridge over the SE.

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Texaspirate11
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Dang I go to the Caribbean worrying about storms and Galveston gets hit....
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Scott747
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Let's just I don't believe the 0z euro has a remote chance of verifying. It would be one of the most incredible tracks in tropical history for the Atlantic basin considering the timing. Not only does Karen miss mainland fla it probably would miss Texas and go in near la pesca.

However it sure is locking in on the ridging being strong enough to make the gulf.
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Oddly enough the 6z GFS is showing a similar setup with Karen as the euro. It gets a little further n before turning due w with some wsw movement at times.

Never really strengthens but you can track the vorticity all the way to the mid tex coast.

Hard to imagine that there won't be changes but to have this kind of agreement with both models is an eye opener.
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Scott747 wrote: Mon Sep 23, 2019 2:50 am Let's just I don't believe the 0z euro has a remote chance of verifying. It would be one of the most incredible tracks in tropical history for the Atlantic basin considering the timing. Not only does Karen miss mainland fla it probably would miss Texas and go in near la pesca.

However it sure is locking in on the ridging being strong enough to make the gulf.
This is a weird pattern and it's been all year never say never.
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tireman4
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526
FXUS64 KHGX 231130
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
630 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2019

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
LIFR to VFR ceilings and patchy fog have been observed across the
metro and northern terminals this morning. Conditions should be
improving through the morning hours. Showers have been popping up
along the coast and in the vicinity of LBX this morning, but
scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to fill in
through the afternoon hours. Anticipating nearly all terminals to
see some convection besides potentially CLL this afternoon. Most
activity should dissipate with the loss of daytime heating early
this evening. Overnight, stuck with a persistence forecast, with
ceilings and patchy fog possible once again during the early
morning hours. Sustained winds should stay light out of the
southeast, but gusty winds will be possible with stronger storms
that develop. Brief heavy downpours and frequent lightning will
also be possible in and around stronger storms.

Hathaway

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 400 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2019/...

.SHORT TERM [Today Through Tonight]...
3 AM temperatures are in the upper 70s across most of SE TX this
morning besides along the coast where temperatures remain in the
low 80s. Some patchy fog has developed across and north of a line
from Jackson to Fort Bend to Liberty County. Radar imagery is
continuing to show some streamer shower development over the Gulf
waters this morning. Anticipate coverage of showers and isolated
thunderstorms to increase throughout the morning and through the
afternoon hours. Short term models such as the ARW, TT WRF, and
HRRR have also showed stronger development of storms around
Galveston Bay by mid morning and into the afternoon hours. This
better coverage of storms looks to once again develop along an
axis of moisture convergence. The GOES-16 total precipitable water
field shows up to 2.0 inches across the Gulf waters and along
this axis that stretches into portions of Brazoria, Galveston, and
Chambers counties this morning. In general, anticipate most of
the precipitation to fill in further inland through the afternoon
hours. Best coverage should be along and south of a line from
Washington to Montgomery to Polk County. Brief heavy downpours,
frequent lightning, and gusty winds look possible with the
stronger storms that develop. Additionally, an Areal Flood Warning
remains in effect through late morning across portions of Harris,
Liberty, and Chambers counties, so any additional rainfall over
these locations will only delay any improvements to flood
conditions. With the help of cloud cover, temperatures will only
max out in the upper 80s to low 90s today. Tonight, look for
temperatures to lower into the low 70s to 80s.

Hathaway


.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Monday Evening]...
Upper-level ridging broadly situated over the central U.S. will
be the main force driving a dry start to the week, which will be
characterized by moderate onshore flow and high temperatures in
the high 80s to low 90s. Global model guidance is currently in
good agreement that climatologically low precipitable water (PW)
values will persist across Galveston Bay and the greater Houston
metro area Tuesday. This should bring down the chances of
diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms across the area fairly
significantly through mid-week. Despite this, the typical
development of isolated showers and storms over the coastal waters
in the morning hours which push further inland by the afternoon
cannot be completely ruled out. The prevailing conditions should
remain fairly consistent as the ridge slowly propagates eastward,
eventually lending way to the development of a relatively zonal
upper-level pattern over the Gulf Coast by Thursday. An area of
weakness within this flow develops over the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico by Thursday evening, and a return to elevated PWs and more
typical diurnal convection soon follows. Current indications are
that next weekend could be a wet one, as onshore flow combined
with ample moisture transport should prove to produce more
widespread precipitation coverage Friday through Sunday.

Cady


.MARINE...
Light to moderate onshore flow will prevail through a majority of
the week, with winds slightly stronger at night. SCEC criteria
may be reached at times over the next few days, but wind speeds do
not really increase until this weekend. Shower and thunderstorm
activity will also increase Friday into Saturday as better
moisture returns over the upper TX coast.

A Beach Hazard Statement remains in effect to account for the
risk of strong rip currents and elevated tide levels. At Galveston
Bay Entrance, tide levels should peak near 3.4 feet above MLLW
this morning during high tide. Next high tide will be early
Tuesday morning, but tide levels should only rise to near 3.0 feet
briefly before lowering. Therefore, have held off on extending the
Beach Hazards Statement past 00Z Tuesday for now.

Hathaway

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 93 73 92 71 93 / 20 10 10 0 10
Houston (IAH) 88 74 90 72 89 / 50 10 0 0 20
Galveston (GLS) 87 79 87 80 88 / 40 0 0 10 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...08
BlueJay
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Today is the first day of Autumn 2019, officially. Happy Fall everyone!
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snowman65
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BlueJay wrote: Mon Sep 23, 2019 11:06 am Today is the first day of Autumn 2019, officially. Happy Fall everyone!
Fall has been cancelled...See you in December... :lol: :lol: Even winter is on the chopping block.
mcheer23
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GFS throws what's left of Karen into the western gulf.

GFS also shows a cool front around Oct 4th.
sau27
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Being at least 10 days out I am not too concerned with Karen. Climatologicaly speaking a non-gulf brewed storm striking near our area this time of year would be unheard of. I looked at the historic track tool the hurricane center has and ran if for storms within 150 miles of Galveston in October and below is what it showed. No storm from outside the Gulf has ever come near us October.
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Texaspirate11
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sau27 wrote: Mon Sep 23, 2019 1:36 pm Being at least 10 days out I am not too concerned with Karen. Climatologicaly speaking a non-gulf brewed storm striking near our area this time of year would be unheard of. I looked at the historic track tool the hurricane center has and ran if for storms within 150 miles of Galveston in October and below is what it showed. No storm from outside the Gulf has ever come near us October.
Generally we shut down the last week or so in September *generally*
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srainhoutx
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Keep an eye on the Bay of Campeche late week into the weekend. We may see a healthy surge of deep tropical moisture along the Texas Coast from any mischief that could spin up closer to home.
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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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jasons2k
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Ike’s track was unprecedented.

The rainfall from Harvey was unprecedented.

Seems like “unprecedented” events are commonplace these days. Not that I’m particularly worried about Karen, but I’m not letting my guard down until it either moves out to sea, dissipates, or makes a terminal landfall.
Last edited by jasons2k on Mon Sep 23, 2019 3:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Scott747
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Didn't take long for the euro to have a different solution with Karen. More to do with Jerry.

Otherwise it would of shown something similar as the two previous runs although it's much weaker and only makes it too the Eastern gulf with the slower movement.

Interesting and complicated setup.
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snowman65 wrote: Mon Sep 23, 2019 11:29 am
BlueJay wrote: Mon Sep 23, 2019 11:06 am Today is the first day of Autumn 2019, officially. Happy Fall everyone!
Fall has been cancelled...See you in December... :lol: :lol: Even winter is on the chopping block.
We've seen waaaaaayyyy too much of that over the last 10 years. Then winter is pot luck.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 232002
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
302 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2019

.SHORT TERM [Tonight through Tuesday Afternoon]...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms expanding northward through
the area. Slow movers with rainfall rates of up to 1"/hour.
Temperatures should trend down quickly this evening and make for a
pleasant evening. Overnight some patchy fog looks like a good bet
for the areas from Tomball-Conroe to Liberty northward as well as
stratus. Scattered showers should redevelop early Tuesday morning
in the coastal waters and be headed towards Brazoria/Matagorda
counties. Moist axis that was centered over the SETX is going to
be shifting west and by Tuesday afternoon expect PW to have
dropped to less than 1.4" over the eastern areas with greater
subsidence.

45


&&
.LONG TERM [Tuesday night through Sunday]...

The strength and location of stacked ridging near the Gulf Coast
will be a dominant influencer of the weather into this weekend.
Model trends now have the ridge running a touch weaker through the
work week, and potentially even strengthening as it retreats
eastward this weekend.

All in all, the impacts on the forecast do not seem terribly
significant at this time. High temps from the work week into the
weekend are a little closer together than before, and with lower
precipitable water expected - below the median for the season and
as low as the 25th percentile - I still don`t think we`ll be able
to manage much more than isolated showers and storms for the bulk
of the week ahead.

Of course, with precipitable water still expected to surge to
around or above 2 inches this weekend, we should still look for
better convective coverage. While the period of the strongest
ridge is now progged to be over the weekend, it will have
retreated to the east, so less influence for our northwest corner
of the Gulf, and there seems to be continued general model
agreement for a vort max rolling around the edge of the ridge this
weekend, further supporting rainfall potential.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
All river watches and warnings have been canceled, as gages
around the area go beneath flood stage at all points. That said,
there are still a number of roads reported to be covered by water
in Chambers County - so, while smaller, the areal flood warning in
the east continues. In addition, Harris County has come across
several roads covered with water and impassable in the vicinity of
Cedar Bayou, so an areal flood warning continues there as well.
While today`s rainfall is certainly not helping things dry out in
the locations most heavily impacted by the past week`s rainfall,
significant new flooding is not expected.

&&

.TROPICAL...
The National Hurricane Center has identified an area of interest
in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico that has some potential for
development. At this time, the only impacts anticipated for our
area would be slightly higher seas in the Gulf. However, some
outlier model solution do suggest an area of low pressure (but not
necessarily a tropical cyclone) that may drift our way. While
these solutions are not a significant consideration in the
forecast, it does serve as a reminder that it is a good idea to
monitor the forecasts in the coming days to ensure that
expectations have not changed.
&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 73 92 71 93 71 / 10 20 0 10 0
Houston (IAH) 74 90 72 90 72 / 20 10 0 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 81 87 79 87 79 / 0 10 0 10 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$


SHORT TERM...45
LONG TERM...Luchs
HYDROLOGY...Luchs
TROPICAL...Luchs
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snowman65
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Who needs a good laugh, courtesy of the GFS.......
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Cpv17
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18z GFS is wild.
Scott747
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Models are really in a crazy mood now.

The GFS has been showing some really lowering of pressures across the western Caribbean in the long range.

18z has a system in the longer range (unrelated to Karen) that comes out of the Caribbean and hits around Corpus as a hurricane.

Just crazy seeing runs this late in the season favoring the Western gulf, even if it is in the longer range...
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