September 2019 - Warm End of September

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff:

With the formation of a more well defined surface circulation moving inland into coastal Brazoria County there is slightly more confidence in the rainfall forecast and amounts.

It appears that the center of Imelda will continue to move N to NNW along/near SH 288 through Brazoria County and then into Harris County this evening and overnight. Heavy rainfall looks to concentrate near the center and in banding features to the right (east of the center) and this will effect areas along and east of the SH 288 and I-45 corridors

Widespread rainfall amounts of 4-7 inches with isolated amounts of 10-15 inches will be possible along and to the east of the track of the center of Imelda this evening into Wednesday.

With the potential for more concentrated rainfall near the inland moving center and banding features on the east side to increase the hourly rainfall rates, rises on area bayous and creeks can be expected this evening and overnight.

[Belmer]

Tropical Storm Imelda makes landfall..

Tropical Storm Imelda Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112019
130 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

...TROPICAL STORM IMELDA MAKES LANDFALL NEAR FREEPORT TEXAS...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL SPREAD INLAND...

NOAA Doppler radar data and surface observations indicate that
Tropical Storm Imelda made landfall near Freeport, Texas at
100 PM CDT with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph.

A National Ocean Service observing site at Freeport, Texas reported
a minimum pressure near 1005 mb (29.68 inches) around the time of
landfall.

SUMMARY OF 130 PM CDT...1830 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 95.3W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM S OF FREEPORT TEXAS
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SW OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Brown

[jasons2k]

It’s going to be feast or famine...down to mere miles.

[Kingwood36]

It’s going to be feast or famine...down to mere miles.

Is this the "big rains"?

[stormlover]

man beaumont and houston get hammered by the euro

[don]

It’s going to be feast or famine...down to mere miles.

Is this the "big rains"?

No, the flood threat doesn't start until the core of Imelda moves more inland late tonight/tomorrow morning.

[srainhoutx]

It’s going to be feast or famine...down to mere miles.

Is this the "big rains"?

It's a multi day event. Not just today.

[don]

12Z EURO

[djmike]

Man that line coming into beaumont has got some winds to it and heavy heavy rains. Harder than this morning but what threw me was the gusts of wind. Atleast35-40 mph atleast. This is gonna be a long week.

[srainhoutx]

The afternoon Updated 3 Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast again increasing the total amounts for the next 72 hours.

[tireman4]

Why am I thinking ( hoping) the Euro is overdoing it..

[stormlover]

ukmet is right in line with the euro

[jabcwb2]

Hi tireman4 and stormlover -

thanks for all you do!!!

Would you mind posting a snapshot of what you are looking at?

Thanks!

[sau27]

18z HRRR keeps the center slightly west of Houston. 8-12 inches in the metro area thru late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning

[srainhoutx]

18z HRRR keeps the center slightly west of Houston. 8-12 inches in the metro area thru late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning

Here is the total accumulated precipitation graphic through 32 hours on the 18Z HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh model).

[stormlover]

yeah I think tonight we are going to really get a good grasp hopefully

[sau27]

18z HRRR keeps the center slightly west of Houston. 8-12 inches in the metro area thru late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning

Here is the total accumulated precipitation graphic through 32 hours on the 18Z HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh model).

Keep in mind that this run ends at 1 am Thursday. There will still be a number of hours of this event after that point.

[jasons2k]

So far I’ve had .13” today. Expecting much more overnight...

[Seantx81]

I’ve been just lurking for a long while folks but my Harvey ptsd is kicking in. Sorry i know the answer is likely a wishcasting type of scenario but I’m a little more freaked out now that I have a baby to worry about and not just myself but...

How do impacts as far as for flooding look for the South League City area like near the NWS office? Will the rain happen mostly at once or over an extended period? Are we looking at house flooding or street flooding mostly?

My street can handle more than a few inches over an extended period but not at once. I got 24” in Harvey and only 4” in my home.

[Cpv17]

18z HRRR keeps the center slightly west of Houston. 8-12 inches in the metro area thru late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning

Here is the total accumulated precipitation graphic through 32 hours on the 18Z HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh model).

Man, I’m literally right on the edge of that. A flood to my east and nothing to my west.