September 2019 - Warm End of September

[srainhoutx]

Crazy thunderstorm here at the house. Wind gusted to 45 MPH, frequent CG lightning and torrential rainfall.

Edit to add: Nearing 1.5 inches in the last 20 minutes

[unome]

Crazy thunderstorm here at the house. Wind gusted to 45 MPH, frequent CG lightning and torrential rainfall.

bit of a hail signature in it also - can hear the thunder from here - stay safe !

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/i ... X-HHC-1-48

[unome]

we got some strong rains, nothing severe though, looks like it weakened before it got to us - loving the rain, just did the yard this morning

https://twitter.com/iembot_hgx/status/1 ... 4896661504

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
435 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019

TXZ213-112200-
Inland Harris TX-
435 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019

...Strong Thunderstorm in Western Harris County...

At 434 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Cypress, or 7 miles northwest of Jersey Village, moving north at 10
mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with this storm. These
winds may push away from the storm significantly, and cause gusty
winds where rain is not occurring.

Locations impacted include...
Jersey Village, Addicks Park Ten, Fairbanks / Northwest Crossing,
Cypress, Westbranch, Carverdale, Willowbrook and Greater Inwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

[srainhoutx]

Pool and Koi pond filled from the rain. Good way to end the day!

[jasons2k]

Raining with thunder here!!

Edit: it was more impressive on radar than on the ground. Got .10” but that’s better than nothing!

[Katdaddy]

Picked up a quick .25" this afternoon here in W League City. Glad you finally got some very well needed rain up there Jasons!!!!

[Cromagnum]

Rained hard this morning for 15 minutes. Nothing all day. Everything is forming west of here and headed to the northwest

[redneckweather]

Nothing here at the house again and it is pouring 150 yards down the road.

[Cpv17]

70% now. Code red:



I find it interesting that several of the models and ensembles bring this into the NE Gulf, but yet the NHC has it aimed towards the central Gulf. I don’t see any models that want to take it that far west so I really don’t know what they’re seeing?

[srainhoutx]

70% now. Code red:



I find it interesting that several of the models and ensembles bring this into the NE Gulf, but yet the NHC has it aimed towards the central Gulf. I don’t see any models that want to take it that far west so I really don’t know what they’re seeing?

Ensembles and guidance that is not publicly available. Their 'track record' is very good at this range. They will tell you intensity still needs work...

[Cpv17]

70% now. Code red:



I find it interesting that several of the models and ensembles bring this into the NE Gulf, but yet the NHC has it aimed towards the central Gulf. I don’t see any models that want to take it that far west so I really don’t know what they’re seeing?

Ensembles and guidance that is not publicly available. Their 'track record' is very good at this range. They will tell you intensity still needs work...

There’s supposed to be some sort of upper level low out ahead of this system that will tug it into the Gulf and that upper low is supposed to move into Texas and bring us rain next week. Will it follow that low more towards the western or central Gulf or go into the Florida panhandle? Guess we’ll see!

[srainhoutx]

Here is the upper low Cpv17 mentioned. I believe somewhere in the Gulf is where we could see genesis sometime this weekend. I'll leave the imagery up for a bit, but since we now have to pay for any additional bandwidth overage, it will be removed.

[sambucol]

70% now. Code red:



I find it interesting that several of the models and ensembles bring this into the NE Gulf, but yet the NHC has it aimed towards the central Gulf. I don’t see any models that want to take it that far west so I really don’t know what they’re seeing?

Ensembles and guidance that is not publicly available. Their 'track record' is very good at this range. They will tell you intensity still needs work...

Is that a slightly more westward bend in that track?

[jasons2k]

I just don’t see anything yet that would push this past 90W. If you want rain, that’s not good news for us.

[unome]

... I believe somewhere in the Gulf is where we could see genesis sometime this weekend. I'll leave the imagery up for a bit, but since we now have to pay for any additional bandwidth overage, it will be removed.

I had no idea it was costing the board, I am bad about posting "live links", I'm sorry - would it help if I went back & deleted old links?

[srainhoutx]

No need unome. I was the worst offender on the previous board. Just something to be mindful of.

[Katdaddy]

Invest 95L looking better this evening.

[Scott747]

After a sizable shift with the 12z GFS ensembles towards the Texas coast the 18z shifted back towards the ngom.

I think some of the ensembles are developing the ull which could be causing a little havoc. Either way despite the e shift today I don't think none of the models has a solid grasp and isn't surprising with this type of system.

Still think the ngom is the favored area for a weak system and unless there are big changes with the 0z suite it should be reflected in the next couple of TWO's.

[Ptarmigan]

The next name on the name is Humberto. It could very well develop in the Gulf Of Mexico.

Hurricane Humberto made landfall on September 13, 2007 as an intensifying Category 1 hurricane.

[Ptarmigan]

Let's take a moment to reflect on this tragic anniversary.

The weather of 9/11
https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather- ... -11/532534