September 2019 - Warm End of September

[jasons2k]

BlueJay - I hope your A/C is fixed soon - that's never any fun. At least it's a little bit cooler than it was.

Srain - I could write a few pages worth of material to show my gratitude for your contributions to this community over the years. It wouldn't be the forum it has been, and is today, without all of your sacrifices and guidance to make it all happen. Please do stay around, even if it is mostly online

[DoctorMu]

Geez lots of activity north of here...nothing downstream (south) of here yet.

This is torture.

Surrounded by clouds and rain. All Lucy and the football IMBY so far. Have to be satisfied with under 100°F and cloudy conditions for now.

Yeah, once we got that outflow breeze, I knew the rain chances were over. So close, yet so far away.

[DoctorMu]

A/C went kerplunk last Saturday night. No rain here either, but I am so grateful that the skies are a bit cloudy and the temps are 6 or 7 degrees cooler!

Thanks for the snow picture, srain. I has kept me cool for today!

Thank you so much for the kind words, BlueJay! As I begin a transition to a new life of 'retirement' in the beautiful Mountains of far Western NC in the not tooo distant future...God willing, I will always treasure my birth City and my weather roots. One thing that is unique about our weather Family, we will always share the passion! One day in the not too distant future I may be sharing some real snow pictures from 3500 feet!

God's Country! The mountains of the Old North State - I grew up more down east, but really miss the weather this time of year.

Thanks for your expertise and contributions to weather, life, limb, and psyche.

[Katdaddy]

Today will be a repeat of yesterday across SE TX with scattered showers and thunderstorms. The tropics continue show some signs of life. No immediate concern but will be watching the disturbance over the SE Bahamas which is looks to enter the EGOM over the weekend with 20% chance of development.

[Scott747]

Models are beginning to come towards a consensus that there will be a system in the gulf starting late in the weekend. GFS has a weak system to the ngom, Canadian to mid la coast and euro with an odd track towards mid/lower tx coast and then turning back towards the upper tx coast.

Models continue showing development and it should be tagged as an invest soon.

[cperk]

A/C went kerplunk last Saturday night. No rain here either, but I am so grateful that the skies are a bit cloudy and the temps are 6 or 7 degrees cooler!

Thanks for the snow picture, srain. I has kept me cool for today!

Thank you so much for the kind words, BlueJay! As I begin a transition to a new life of 'retirement' in the beautiful Mountains of far Western NC in the not tooo distant future...God willing, I will always treasure my birth City and my weather roots. One thing that is unique about our weather Family, we will always share the passion! One day in the not too distant future I may be sharing some real snow pictures from 3500 feet!

srain it has been a pleasure being a member of this great forum with you, your hard work and dedication has made WXinfinity a weather community second to none and I will truly miss you.Enjoy your retirement and your new home and please don't be a stranger.

[srainhoutx]

Tuesday morning Tropical Weather Update from Jeff:

A trough of low pressure is interacting with a tropical wave this morning across the SE Bahamas. Satellite images indicate that this area of disturbed weather has become slightly better organized although there are no indications of a surface circulation at the moment. Development of this feature is not expected over the next 2-3 days as it moves slowly west to WNW toward northern Cuba or the FL Straits.

Late this week and this weekend this feature will likely enter the eastern Gulf of Mexico and conditions will become increasingly favorable for some tropical development. There is significant spread in the model ensemble guidance on suggestive tracks for this feature with the ECWMF members toward the west and the GFS showing a more poleward drift over the central and eastern Gulf.

NHC currently gives the system a 30% chance of development over the next 5 days.

Atlantic Tropical Waves:

A pair of tropical waves over the Atlantic are moving westward with only small chances for development at the moment. The wave that has emerged off the west coast of Africa likely has the better chance as it moves across the tropical Atlantic.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 101012
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
512 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2019

.SHORT TERM [Today through Wednesday Night]...
This morning`s HGX radar looking quite similar to yesterday...with
scattered activity over the coastal waters moving onshore. Will be
keeping POPs slightly higher across the western counties given the
best push of moisture from the Gulf at this time, but with daytime
heating...we`ll likely see widespread pulse-type storms over main-
ly the northern half of the CWA. Not seeing much by way of obvious
boundaries (save for perhaps a weak/lingering outflow or two), and
will be expecting coverage to be similar to yesterday. Brief heavy
rainfall and gusty winds to accompany the stronger storms. Activi-
ty should to wind down by the evening with the loss of heating.

With slightly deeper moisture in play (along with the proximity of
the upper trof/shear axis), we should see higher POPs across SE TX
on Weds. Still not expecting much by way of severe weather at this
time given the progs of weak shear and the still lack of a surface
focus/boundary. Locally heavy rainfall and brief gusty winds to be
the main threats. 41

&&

.LONG TERM [Thursday through Tuesday]...
With the upper ridge over the eastern U.S. building back over the
region (to the west), we should see decreased rain chances and in-
creased temperatures from Thurs into the weekend. We will still be
set up for isolated POPs (mainly daytime along the seabreeze), but
one of the main issues should the the return of high temps back in
to the upper 90s (in particular for the Brazos Valley region).

However, of note for this extended part of the forecast, will be a
return of a wetter pattern for SE TX as the upper ridge out to the
east lift a bit and we become situated on its bottom/southern side.
This pattern usually means an increase of weak easterly waves from
across the northern Gulf moving into the CWA. And as it so happens
the first of these waves may be on track for Sun/Mon if the models
do verify. 41

&&

.MARINE...
Winds across the Upper Texas Coast should be mainly southeasterly
in the 10-15 knot range the next few days before weakening. The
high pressure system over the northern Gulf Coast should weaken
helping to relax the winds for late Friday through the weekend.
The upper level low pressure system over the Coastal Bend today
should pump moisture into the area and increase the chances for
showers and thunderstorms and these have developed early and
though on recent weakening trend should likely redevelop this
morning across the region and follow a similar trend again
Wednesday with the arrival of the richest moisture. Tide levels
should remain near normal and rip currents at moderate to low
intensity.

Will be keeping an eye on the system near Hispaniola this morning
with NHC indicating at least a chance of development late in the
weekend on a trajectory that could bring it into the SE Gulf.
45

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR for the most part with some patchy fog (MVFR). Showers made an
initial push into the coastal areas this morning and weak speed
convergence remains but should be gradually weakening before the
seabreeze starts to develop. Moisture increases today and anticipate
a round or two of showers and thunderstorms. Recent HRRR runs
highlighting the 14-18z window for the IAH/HOU/SGR terminals then
spreading into the vicinity of the northern sites. Possibly some
redevelopment over the southern mid afternoon...not as confident
that it will redevelop there this afternoon. Patchy fog again
possible tonight with scattered showers and thunderstorms again in a
very similar time frame on Wednesday.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 96 74 96 73 96 / 30 30 30 20 20
Houston (IAH) 95 78 94 77 96 / 30 40 40 20 20
Galveston (GLS) 94 83 92 83 92 / 30 40 50 20 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[unome]

... As I begin a transition to a new life of 'retirement' in the beautiful Mountains of far Western NC in the not tooo distant future...God willing, I will always treasure my birth City and my weather roots. One thing that is unique about our weather Family, we will always share the passion! One day in the not too distant future I may be sharing some real snow pictures from 3500 feet!

Well deserved rest, enjoy the 4 seasons again & we look forward to your snow pics & participation here from afar

[BlueJay]

Thanks Jason!

[jasons2k]

Lucy is out again today. Storms form downstream, fall apart when they get close, then redevelop to the north. It’s like there is a storm extinguisher located in my neighborhood...

2pm: 3rd wave in row that blew up near IAH, then promptly fell apart as it gets close to Montgomery County line. What the heck is it? Storms going up in other places can sustain themselves, but no, not here, where you’d think with all the concrete south of here we’d have more instability than other places.

[unome]

Lucy is out again today. Storms form downstream, fall apart when they get close, then redevelop to the north. It’s like there is a storm extinguisher located in my neighborhood...

we have one also - I could see the lightning & hear the thunder from our patio yesterday evening - dry

more hopeful today, fingers crossed

[tireman4]

Special Weather Statement
Weather Updated: Sep 10 2:26PM
Issued by the National Weather Service
For Inland Harris County, Texas
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT UNTIL 3PM CDT TUE ...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT... AT 225 PM CDT, DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER GREATER INWOOD, OR NEAR JERSEY VILLAGE. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... JERSEY VILLAGE, SPRING BRANCH NORTH, NORTHWESTERN GREATER HEIGHTS, SPRING BRANCH CENTRAL, CENTRAL NORTHWEST, LANGWOOD, FAIRBANKS / NORTHWEST CROSSING, WILLOWBROOK, ACRES HOME, GREATER INWOOD, CARVERDALE, WESTBRANCH, SPRING BRANCH EAST, INDEPENDENCE HEIGHTS AND LAZYBROOK / TIMBERGROVE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM, AND MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE. &&

[unome]

just a few sprinkles here, but temps in the 70s & a nice breeze - I'll take it !

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/

[jasons2k]

.52”

Hallelujah!!!!

[DoctorMu]

Lucy is out again today. Storms form downstream, fall apart when they get close, then redevelop to the north. It’s like there is a storm extinguisher located in my neighborhood...

we have one also - I could see the lightning & hear the thunder from our patio yesterday evening - dry

more hopeful today, fingers crossed

That donut in the NW are is me. Different day. Same story!

[DoctorMu]

.52”

Hallelujah!!!!

Well done. Send some of that this way!

[Rip76]

95L - North of Hispañiola

[ccbluewater]

Good rain here in Cypress. FINALLY!!

[srainhoutx]

95L - North of Hispañiola

Will need to monitor this disturbance since it is looking like it could get into the Gulf at climatologically peak Hurricane Season. The ensembles are suggesting a weak disturbance that could move close enough to the Texas Coast to increase rain chances.