September 2019 - Warm End of September

[Cromagnum]

Way too early to make a call on recurve back to sea potential. The GFS is underdoing the ridging to expose an early weakness while other models like the EURO and ICON see a stronger ridge. Still gonna be a battle for a couple more days sadly.

[brooksgarner]

This hurricane reminds me of the 2004 season over on the east coast of FL. Vero got slammed by Frances and Jeanne! Watching from Denver ...

[Scott747]

Overall the model runs have started zeroing in on a lessening threat to the ngom the last 24 hrs.

There were a few hints though to not fully take the ngom out of play. Operational 12z Ukie takes Dorian across fla and to the ne gulf along with the HWRF and a small cluster of the Euro ensembles.

Otherwise most all the globals and ensembles show the main threat away from the gulf.

[cperk]

A just saw a OCM on MSNBC and he indicated that they really don't know where Dorian will make landfall yet or if it will at all.The models are giving them fits 3 days out and that's a little scary.No watches or warnings have been issued yet nor have any evacuations.

[srainhoutx]

I really couldn't care less what media and WxTwitter/social media has to say about Dorian. These days there is always an agenda to push it seems. The older I get, the more I rely on my own intuition regarding sensible weather forecasts.

[Scott747]

Small trend to the w with the early suite of 18z runs.

[Scott747]

I hear ya about the media. Especially the national networks. I threw it on CNN yesterday curious how they were covering it and they had a panel with talking points which were focused on the impending impact on Puerto Rico by a major hurricane.

Problem was Dorian was already pulling away from the island after missing it to the e.

[srainhoutx]

One guy I do follow always provides important historical facts.

Philip Klotzbach
@philklotzbach
September continental US #hurricane landfall locations since 1851. 39 out of the 121 September continental US hurricane landfalls have been in Florida. #HurricaneDorian

[Texaspirate11]

All I gotta hear is "not texas" and I'm good. Although I love the tracking part.

[Cpv17]

All I gotta hear is "not texas" and I'm good. Although I love the tracking part.

They are really fun track even though I lose out on sleep staying up late for the 0z runs lol it’s worth it.

[Scott747]

Still further shifts on the 18z runs.

The hurricane model HMON which is often referred to in the discos is taking Dorian across the Florida straits.

[Cpv17]

Still further shifts on the 18z runs.

The hurricane model HMON which is often referred to in the discos is taking Dorian across the Florida straits.

Florida Straits wouldn’t surprise me a bit.

[Andrew]

I think the current track looks pretty reasonable based on model data and the projected evolution of the ridge over the Western Atlantic. The far Northeast Gulf could be under threat but anything west of that I have trouble seeing right now. Also, keep an eye on the mid-level vorticity that will cross the southern half of the Gulf. More models are indicating some minor development could occur.

[Rip76]

Also, keep an eye on the mid-level vorticity that will cross the southern half of the Gulf. More models are indicating some minor development could occur.

I’ve noticed this.

[Kingwood36]

Also, keep an eye on the mid-level vorticity that will cross the southern half of the Gulf. More models are indicating some minor development could occur.

I’ve noticed this.

When would this be?

[Rip76]

[Kingwood36]

Looks to go in to lousiana whatever it is

[DoctorMu]

GFS. Euro, CMC have Dorian blowing through Mar-a-Lago:



[Write your own paper towel joke here]

[Cpv17]

I think the current track looks pretty reasonable based on model data and the projected evolution of the ridge over the Western Atlantic. The far Northeast Gulf could be under threat but anything west of that I have trouble seeing right now. Also, keep an eye on the mid-level vorticity that will cross the southern half of the Gulf. More models are indicating some minor development could occur.

The Euro takes this into Mexico. I don’t think we’ll see much of anything in SETX from it.

[Scott747]

Whoa. The ridging on the 0z GFS...