August 2019: Weak Cold Front/Rain Chances To End August

[djmike]

Hoping nothing comes close to our area. Ill be in Hawaii
9/2-9/7. Would absolutely kill me if I had to cancel or be thousands of miles away while a storm is hitting the area.

[Texaspirate11]

Kinda irresponsible for a local met to call Dorian so early. No?

[tireman4]

229
FXUS64 KHGX 261442
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
942 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

.DISCUSSION...
850 MB temperatures range from 20-23 C across the area and this
would support surface temperatures from the mid 90`s to around 100
degrees (cooler along the coast). Tweaked dew point grids a bit
and heat index values will reach 108 degrees over a large portion
of SE TX. KGLS is already reporting a heat index value of 104
degrees at 9 AM so feel it is best to go ahead and issue a Heat
Advisory for all of the CWA. There is still an 850 MB trough over
extreme West Texas and a 300 MB trough axis that clips the coast.
The 300 MB trough could still produce some clouds/showers along
the coast this morning and this could retard heating a bit. The
trough is progged to move east and subsidence on the backside of
the trough should allow for clearing this afternoon. 43

&&

[Cpv17]

Kinda irresponsible for a local met to call Dorian so early. No?

Most definitely.

[sau27]

12Z euro update. Euro brings Dorian NE thru the Bahamas and into mid Florida coast. Stalls out in North Florida and gets swallowed up by a deep east coast trough. Similar to 12Z GFS ensemble except for that a few of those members build a ridge east of the Mississippi and push what is left of Dorian across Florida and into the Gulf. Still not a worry but it is at least something to watch.

[Texaspirate11]

12Z euro update. Euro brings Dorian NE thru the Bahamas and into mid Florida coast. Stalls out in North Florida and gets swallowed up by a deep east coast trough. Similar to 12Z GFS ensemble except for that a few of those members build a ridge east of the Mississippi and push what is left of Dorian across Florida and into the Gulf. Still not a worry but it is at least something to watch.

What about 90L
I'm coming home this weekend

[sau27]

12Z euro update. Euro brings Dorian NE thru the Bahamas and into mid Florida coast. Stalls out in North Florida and gets swallowed up by a deep east coast trough. Similar to 12Z GFS ensemble except for that a few of those members build a ridge east of the Mississippi and push what is left of Dorian across Florida and into the Gulf. Still not a worry but it is at least something to watch.

What about 90L
I'm coming home this weekend

GFS isnt very impressive with what is left of 90L. Shows a broad area of vorticity but not much in the form of organization. Latest Euro has most of the vorticity south of here along the Mexican coast, and not very organized either. Obviously things can change, but no tropical alarm bells right now.

[sau27]

The 12z Euro ensemble is what one would call a "mess"

[Texaspirate11]

Thank you

[Cpv17]

12z Euro sucks. Honestly, the past few runs of the Euro have all been doing this. It’s so frustrating because it’s showing round 2 of 90L coming back this way only to stall out right before the coast just like it did over the weekend. All of the rain is limited to the immediate coastline and out into the Gulf. What are the freaking odds? Ugh!

[Scott747]

That's a fairly sizable shift w on the euro ensembles. Still a long ways from being a real threat to Texas but if it keeps trending with the strong ridge then it's something to keep a track on.

Front would be a saviour....

[Scott747]

Large shift on the 18z GFS ensembles. Large group towards central la with a few towards the upper tx coast.

Still in the longer range and confidence is low but there has been a definite trend to the w today.

[sau27]

As always it is going to come down to the strength of the ridge. If the Bermuda high can build back in after TD 5/Erin pushes it back.

[djmike]

Question: is Florida wide enough to tear apart any system or is their a chance it could reform in the Ngulf?

[Cromagnum]

Florida is flat. A relatively quick moving storm probably wouldn't notice much from it. It has to survive Hispaniola first though.

[Pas_Bon]

Question: is Florida wide enough to tear apart any system or is their a chance it could reform in the Ngulf?

Andrew, Katrina, and countless others have all traversed Florida with nary an issue

[tireman4]

687
FXUS64 KHGX 271147
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
647 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019

.AVIATION...
Could see some brief MVFR ceilings this morning. Otherwise, VFR with
mainly S to SSW winds 5 to 10 knots. Increasing high clouds moving
into the area from the north could end up keeping convective temperatures
just out of reach, so have kept the TAFs dry for today. But, area could
end up seeing possible SHRA/TSRA from any outflows/boundaries and
associated storms moving into the area from the north today through
tomorrow. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019/

DISCUSSION...

After a very hot Monday with some locations seeing the heat index
rise above 110 degrees, today looks abnormally hot again, and so
a heat advisory is in effect for the entire area again.
Temperatures look to gradually back off ever so slightly deeper
into the week, but high temperatures still much more resemble the
depths of summer than the end of the season. We -may- cool enough
to no longer require heat advisories, but probably not a whole lot
more than that.

The approach of a weakening cold front from the north should help
showers and thunderstorms bounce back in the midweek, but it may
take until deep into the weekend for any kind of front to
actually sag through most of Southeast Texas. Not sure it`s going
to make any real kind of difference in temperatures, but it would
make for a wind shift and have implications on rain chances.

Finally, the tropics. TD6 is an easy one - no threat whatsoever to
Southeast Texas. As for Dorian? At this point we lack evidence
that we have any cause for concern, but it is so far off that it
is still responsible to stay aware of the forecast for the storm
in the coming days.

SHORT TERM [Through Tonight]...

A Heat Advisory is in effect today for all of Southeast Texas.
Maximum heat index values are expected to peak in a 107 to 113
degree range. Could see some isolated shower and/or thunderstorm
development, and have some low rain chances in the forecast.
Will be monitoring the forecast for a possible increase in
showers/thunderstorms beginning tonight as activity up north
(partly associated with a weak front) sags southward into our
area. 42

LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Tuesday]...

For Wednesday and Thursday, it does appear that the subtropical
ridge will weaken modestly over the Gulf, with the strongest
portion of the ridge drawing back a bit towards the Four Corners.
At the same time, the front currently draped across Oklahoma Because
of this, went ahead and trended PoPs upwards for the midweek
after another pretty dry day on Tuesday. Similarly, these are
currently two of the cooler days of the forecast period - with
cooler very much operating as a relative term. Right now, Thursday
is generally my coolest day of the week, and all of our main
climate sites still have a forecast high a few degrees above
seasonal averages.

After that, things start to get...fuzzy...with the forecast. In
general, the idea is that this weak boundary (calling it a front
is probably too generous) will slowly sag towards the coast,
though probably not making it all the way there. We should see
some clearer skies and modestly drier air on the backside of the
boundary, but not any cooler air. As a result, the northern bulk
of the area could see some cooler nights thanks to the air being a
bit drier...but more sun and less low level moisture probably
means afternoon highs will be similar...maybe even warmer.
Fortunately, the lower dewpoints should keep the heat index at
least below the 108 degree heat advisory threshold. At the
coast...well, no real changes.

MARINE...

Caution level winds early this morning are expected to weaken as
the day progresses. Light to occasionally moderate winds along
with low seas can be expected for the remainder of the week
along with periods of showers and thunderstorms. 42

TROPICAL...

There are two active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin at
this time.

Tropical Depression Six - Not much to say here. It is way too far
north, moving to the east, and it would take a pretty dramatic
change in the laws of physics for it to become an issue for us
here in Southeast Texas.

Tropical Storm Dorian - Currently moving through the Lesser
Antilles. Through the next five days, it will continue to the WNW
or NW across the Greater Antilles, and likely towards the Bahamas.
Beyond that, there is much less confidence in the forecast, both
for track and intensity. At this time, there is no reason for
concern that Southeast Texas will see any influence from Dorian.
But, with such a long range forecast, it`s only responsible to
keep an eye on things, just in case something strange happens.

There`s no need to be glued to Dorian, but it`d be a good idea to
check in every day or so and see what the latest is. It never
hurts to make sure your kit`s ready to go, and your plan is set.
Even if Dorian doesn`t come our way, we`re in the peak of
hurricane season and being prepared for any possible future storms
is very good.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 99 76 98 77 98 / 10 20 20 20 30
Houston (IAH) 98 78 98 79 95 / 20 20 30 10 40
Galveston (GLS) 93 84 93 84 91 / 10 20 30 30 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following
zones: Austin...Brazoria Islands...Brazos...Burleson...
Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal
Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...
Fort Bend...Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...
Grimes...Houston...Inland Brazoria...Inland Galveston...
Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland Matagorda...
Madison...Matagorda Islands...Montgomery...Northern
Liberty...Polk...San Jacinto...Southern Liberty...Trinity...
Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 9 AM CDT this morning
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Matagorda Bay...
Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20
to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20
to 60 NM.

&&

$$

[jasons2k]

Question: is Florida wide enough to tear apart any system or is their a chance it could reform in the Ngulf?

That’s not an easy question to answer. It depends on a number of factors, such as - what part of the peninsula will the storm cross? The most southern portion across the Everglades, which is mostly water anyway, or further up, where the Florida Ridge actually has some hills?

Storm motion - obviously the quicker it moves, the less influence the land will have.

Atmospheric environment - might be the biggest factor - is the storm strengthening or weakening as it approaches? Is it a large moist pocket with good outflow channels, or is the atmosphere just marginal?

In short - it depends and every storm is unique. Some storms collapse when they touch land and some storms actually continue to intensify with the ‘brown ocean’ effect and/or great atmospheric conditions.

There is no black or white answer...you just have to closely monitor...

[jasons2k]

On another note - I must be getting old. Or something. The heat is starting to get to me. I’m having a hard time recovering after my runs this summer - like bad. Tired of this relentless 100-degree heat and no rain.

God I miss Florida.

[Kingwood36]

Anyone see the icon model that turns it west into the gulf and keeps trucking along west almost ti texas?