August 2019: Weak Cold Front/Rain Chances To End August

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Mon Aug 12, 2019 8:47 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Mon Aug 12, 2019 6:53 pm Wow .. fantasy land, but still wow :shock:

Image
No thanks, we don’t want a cane ruining the opening weekend of CFB in Texas.

That would be the first Aggie home game -so it would probably happen. :shock:
User avatar
MontgomeryCoWx
Posts: 2356
Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
Location: Weimar, TX
Contact:

DoctorMu wrote: Tue Aug 13, 2019 1:04 am
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Mon Aug 12, 2019 8:47 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Mon Aug 12, 2019 6:53 pm Wow .. fantasy land, but still wow :shock:

Image
No thanks, we don’t want a cane ruining the opening weekend of CFB in Texas.

That would be the first Aggie home game -so it would probably happen. :shock:
That’s Tuesday evening so unless it’s moving really slow, it would probably be fine by tailgate time on Thursday.
Team #NeverSummer
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 4437
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

000
FXUS64 KHGX 131129
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
629 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions persist at all terminals through the duration of
the TAF period. Winds remain out of the SW at around 5 to 10 knots
through the morning hours, picking up and shifting S/SE by the
early afternoon. Precipitation is not expected at all sites through
the current period. However, as a surface boundary approaches SE
Texas from the north late tomorrow and into Thursday, some more
widespread SHRA/TSRA coverage is possible. Will need to closely
monitor potential aviation impacts from this feature in later
updates.

Cady

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019/

SHORT TERM [Today and Tonight]...

The meridional-oriented 594 dam upper ridge whose axis is centered
across the Southern Plains will hang on for one more day. The ridge
is forecast to slowly move back towards western Texas through
today...lower Big Bend surface pressure in relation to Gulf high
pressure will maintain a weak background southerly breeze. As has
been the case for nearly a week, nil POPs with less than a slight
chance for an afternoon heat o` the day coastal county isolated
storm to pop along the sea breeze boundary. Triple digit maximum
temperatures are forecast for a sixth day inland with a second or
third consecutive day for those along and just south of the I-10
corridor. 100 degree heat with upper 60 F(far north) to middle 70 F
(near coastal) dew point temperatures will produce afternoon 106 to
111 F heat indices. Thus, the Heat Advisory continues though 7 PM
today. The cumulative adverse impacts of consecutive day heat,
especially with these very warm and muggy mornings in the 80s, will
begin to take a toll on outdoor workers, the elderly and those that
do not have air conditioning. Be aware of the symptoms of heat-
related illness and be ready to take action if encountering someone
who may succumb to heat exhaustion or heat stroke.

31

LONG TERM [Wednesday through Tuesday]...

Early Wednesday morning, the mid to upper level ridge will begin
to retreat west as an upper level shortwaves moves eastward across
the Great Lakes region. A frontal boundary on the surface is
expected to move into Central Texas Wednesday. Ahead of the
front, a surge in moisture is expected to begin to move into the
local area Wednesday as the frontal boundary makes its way
southward. PWs between 2.0 to 2.3 expected to move across the area
Wednesday morning increasing up to 2.6 inches through Wednesday
night. Maximum temperatures on Wednesday will still range between the
upper 90s to low 100s. With the ridge retreating to the west, the
combination of deep low level moisture, strong diurnal heating as
well as the the proximity of the frontal boundary will likely induce
periods of shower and thunderstorm activity Wednesday. Hi-Res
Precip models indicate some isolated to scattered shower activity
moving across the Gulf waters early Wednesday morning. Shower and
thunderstorm development is expected to increase throughout the
morning and afternoon hours as daytime heating peaks and the deep
low level moisture continues to filter into the local area.

The front is expected to reach the northern portions of southeast
Texas by Wednesday evening/night, moving into the central and
southern portions Thursday. Unfortunately, Global models have yet
to come into full agreement on how strong it will be and how south
the boundary will actually move. The GFS continues to be the most
aggressive but has slightly slowed down the forward motion of the
front compared to the previous model runs. The NAM is just a tad
bit slower than the GFS. The ECMWF continues to displace higher
moisture amounts to the east, placing the strongest convective
activity over the eastern half of southeast Texas into LA.
Thursday night into Friday, the GFS filters in much drier air
compared to the rest of the models, with PWs between 1.0 and 1.7
inches, whereas both the NAM and ECMWF, have deep low level
moisture lingering through Friday (with PWs still above 2.0
inches). In general, expect periods of showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday through Thursday evening. Conditions should improve
Friday, with most of the activity occuring over the Gulf waters
and southern portions of the local area.

During the upcoming weekend into early next week, a summertime
pattern is expected, as the mid to upper level ridge meanders over
the western and central regions of Texas. Look for passing
showers across the Gulf waters and coastal regions late night to
early morning hours and showers and possible thunderstorms
developing in the late morning to afternoon hours each day. High
temperatures in the mid to upper 90s expected during the weekend
and early next week. Lows expected to remain in the mid 70s to
lower 80s at night.

24

MARINE...

An early morning Small Craft Exercise Caution is in effect through
10 AM LT due to a tight enough land-sea pressure gradient keeping S-
SW winds in the 15 to 20 knot range over the 0-20 nm Gulf and
Matagorda Bay waters. Average 2 to 3 foot seas under these winds
will level out to between 1 to 2 feet for the remainder of the week
under a weak sub 10 knot uni-directional breeze. Other than these
slightly more moderate pre-dawn nearshore winds, expect the only
period of double digit (onshore) winds to occur over the weekend. No
tropical activity of note is forecast through the week.

31

CLIMATE...

Low temperature records continue to fall at Galveston. Monday marked
the 5th consecutive day where the daily high minimum temperature
record has been set or tied, with the observed low of 86 beating out
the previous record of 85 from 2011. This also matches the all-time
high minimum temperature record for the site, which was just
recently set during the current heatwave period on August 8. Monday
was also the 7th consecutive day where the observed low
temperature was 84 or greater. This streak is the second longest
on record since observations began in 1874 behind the 9 day period
of August 5-13, 2011.

Palacios once again tied its all-time record for high minimum
temperature at 87, with records dating back to 1943. This was the
7th consecutive day where the low temperature was 84 or above.
Should a low of 84 or higher be observed tomorrow, this streak will
tie the longest on record from July of this year.

Cady

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 101 79 98 78 98 / 0 10 30 30 30
Houston (IAH) 100 81 96 80 96 / 0 10 40 50 50
Galveston (GLS) 94 84 93 82 90 / 0 10 40 50 50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following
zones: Austin...Brazoria Islands...Brazos...Burleson...
Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal
Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...
Fort Bend...Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...
Grimes...Houston...Inland Brazoria...Inland Galveston...
Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland Matagorda...
Madison...Matagorda Islands...Montgomery...Northern
Liberty...Polk...San Jacinto...Southern Liberty...Trinity...
Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$
Cpv17
Posts: 5234
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

The Euro keeps hinting that at the very least, we could have a tropical wave approaching us from the BOC in about 10 days or so. I wonder what the EPS shows?
Scott747
Posts: 1488
Joined: Tue Feb 23, 2010 9:56 am
Location: Freeport/Surfside Beach
Contact:

It's not only the euro but the old GFS as well. Surprisingly the old GFS has been consistent compared to how all over the place the operational is.
Cpv17
Posts: 5234
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

Light at the end of the tunnel? But this could also open up the door for the tropics to impact our area as well:

Image
User avatar
Texaspirate11
Posts: 1278
Joined: Tue Dec 31, 2013 12:24 am
Contact:

I hate to say or bring it or wish it - but just a small tropical wave would, at this point, be heavenly.
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19611
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

Cpv17 wrote: Tue Aug 13, 2019 2:54 pm Light at the end of the tunnel? But this could also open up the door for the tropics to impact our area as well:

Image
The Day 11+ GEFS Super Ensembles do suggest a weakness over portions of the Eastern half of Texas into Western Louisiana. It's still somewhat background noise from the sensible forecasting standpoint at that range, but worthy of monitoring.
Attachments
08132019 500hgt_comp_sup814.gif
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

Cpv17 wrote: Tue Aug 13, 2019 2:54 pm Light at the end of the tunnel? But this could also open up the door for the tropics to impact our area as well:

Image
Yep - Cold front lagging in the GoM.

The last few days have been brutal. I welcome a NW upper level flow setting up.
Cromagnum
Posts: 2592
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2011 10:42 pm
Contact:

Ercot just issued a power conservation alert until 7 pm
Scott747
Posts: 1488
Joined: Tue Feb 23, 2010 9:56 am
Location: Freeport/Surfside Beach
Contact:

Operational GFS is just a mess now. At least it's somewhat coming inline with what the legacy and euro is showing though much stronger and further e towards Louisiana.
Cpv17
Posts: 5234
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

The old GFS is awesome this run. Strong wave into Deep South TX and a good part of the state gets a good soaking:

Image
User avatar
Katdaddy
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 2501
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:18 am
Location: League City, Tx
Contact:

Another day of excessive heat with a Heat Advisory in effect for all of SE TX. However showers and thunderstorms are expected later this afternoon N and NE of Houston which will move into the Houston area this evening. Strong downburst winds will be possible in the stronger storms. The SPC has a marginal risk area from Houston metro eastward into SW LA. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms along will slightly cooler temps can be expected from Thursday through next Tuesday.
Attachments
Screen Shot 2019-08-14 at 5.39.48 AM.png
Screen Shot 2019-08-14 at 5.39.48 AM.png (11.8 KiB) Viewed 4059 times
Cromagnum
Posts: 2592
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2011 10:42 pm
Contact:

That map does not give me very much confidence.
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 4437
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

000
FXUS64 KHGX 141137
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
637 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2019

.AVIATION...
VFR. Increased chance for afternoon convection impacting the more
eastern/metro terminals this afternoon. A slowing northern Texas
outflow boundary will be entering a very warm, moist and unstable
air mass this afternoon. Lift created by this feature, along with
a vicinity sea breeze wind shift and its own possible subsequent
convective outflow, will prime the background enough to place
PROB30s in from those hubs generally from UTS down into southern
Houston (HOU, SGR). The main threat with any strong late afternoon
into early evening thunderstorm will be downburst winds. Remnants
of any residual outflow within pooled higher moisture over the
coastal counties (GLS) will introduce the mention of overnight
early Thursday showers. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2019/

SHORT TERM [Today through Thursday]...

Another hot day with upper ridging still maintaining its grip across
the state. A shear zone atop this ridging positioned across northern
state is the impetus to the pre-dawn firing of Red River Valley into
northeastern Texas convection. Outflow from this activity will sag
southward into our heated late morning environment and likely
initiate downstream early to mid afternoon showers and
thunderstorms. Regional convection will focus primarily across our
eastern CWA and propagate parallel to northeasterly mid-layer
steering flow towards metro by late afternoon. Scattered cells
should pass across Houston metro and be over the south to
southwestern forecast area by early this evening. Inverted V
soundings (with higher DCAPE values) indicate that downburst winds
from the strongest storms will be the main storm threat mode this
afternoon. Of course, this is the most logically stab at placement
as the mesoscale will be the ultimate decider but feel that the best
convergence will be along the sea breeze boundary and the
aforementioned northern outflow wind shift. A slightly higher surge
of pwat air moving in from the northwestern Gulf, along with
temperatures warming into the upper 90s before overcast thickens up
and late afternoon precipitation comes through, has maximum Heat
Indices ranging in the 106 to 110 F range. Thus, will let the Heat
Advisory ride for another day.

The picture becomes muddled going into the early Thursday morning
hours as it relates to precipitation chances and location. There
will be remnant outflow boundaries left over from today`s shower and
storm activity that will be laying about in the vicinity of the
coastline and points offshore. Festering early Thursday maritime
showers may work themselves onshore with daytime heating. Slight to
low end chances for developing slow-moving cells across our local
waters and these will transition further inland (over the southern
half of the CWA) through Thursday afternoon. Thicker overcast and
more areal precipitation coverage will regulate afternoon warmth to
the middle 90s. Despite the higher moisture, these relatively lower
afternoon maxTs will keep many max Heat Indices under 108 F thus
likely making today the last in this recent string of consecutive
Heat Advisories. 31

LONG TERM [Thursday Night through Tuesday]...

The surface frontal boundary is expected to move very slowly or
remain stalled along or near the coastal regions of upper Texas
and LA Thursday night into Friday morning. This keeps deep low
level moisture entrapped mainly along the Gulf waters and the
coastal counties during that timeframe. Isolated to scattered
shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to continue across
these areas through Friday morning. In the late morning to
afternoon hours Friday, winds become more southeasterly,
increasing moisture transport inland. Soundings indicate PWAT
values around 2.0 inches both Friday and Saturday afternoon,
however, amounts do vary a bit between models. GFS has the driest
driest solution for Friday while the NAM is wetter and the EC is
in the middle. On Saturday, the return of low level moisture is
shown on the models and are in better agreement. On Friday,
development of convection can extend from the Gulf waters into the
central regions of the local area as heating increases and
combines with shower and sea breeze outflows. On Saturday,
coverage should be a little more widespread as the low level
moisture digs a little more northward.

By the end of the weekend into early next week, models have an
upper level shortwave developing across the Rockies and Northern
Plains, which seems to keep the mid to upper level high pressure
meandering to the west of the local region. Moisture profile is similar
Sunday into Tuesday, with the higher moisture values located
south of I-10 and east of I-45. A summertime pattern looks to set
up with passing showers along the local waters and coastal regions
in the late night to morning hours, followed by showers and
possible thunderstorms developing in the afternoon hours each day.
High temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s return during this
period as well. 24

MARINE...

A west to southwest wind will back more southerly through the day
with the inland intrusion of the sea breeze boundary. Outflow winds
from inland precipitation may swing late day into evening winds
northerly or variable through early Thursday. This vicinity outflow
introduces a higher probability of scattered showers or isolated
thunderstorms occurring during the overnight hours tonight and
tomorrow morning. Other than slightly more moderate pre-dawn
nearshore winds, expect the only period of double digit (onshore)
winds to occur over the weekend. Average near 2 foot sea heights
will pick up to between 3 to 5 foot wave heights in response this
strengthened weekend onshore fetch. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 100 78 98 77 96 / 30 30 20 10 20
Houston (IAH) 99 79 96 79 93 / 50 40 30 10 30
Galveston (GLS) 93 83 92 83 93 / 40 50 40 30 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following
zones: Austin...Brazoria Islands...Brazos...Burleson...
Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal
Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...
Fort Bend...Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...
Grimes...Houston...Inland Brazoria...Inland Galveston...
Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland Matagorda...
Madison...Matagorda Islands...Montgomery...Northern
Liberty...Polk...San Jacinto...Southern Liberty...Trinity...
Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Long...24
Short/Aviation/Marine...31
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

Scott747 wrote: Tue Aug 13, 2019 6:04 pm Operational GFS is just a mess now. At least it's somewhat coming inline with what the legacy and euro is showing though much stronger and further e towards Louisiana.

It's a wreck. Each run is basically a blind monkey with darts. Legacy is more consistent, correct, and entertaining. Canadian and Euro have been more sensible.
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 4437
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

000
FXUS64 KHGX 141503
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1003 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2019

.UPDATE...
Activity that was developing just ahead of the boundary approaching
from the N/NE looks to be mixing out at this time. As per near-term
models, we`ll be expecting re-development across the central/coast-
al counties later this afternoon as the boundary sags further south
and possibly interacts with the seabreeze. Abundant daytime heating
coupled with increased moisture should be enough to support showers
and thunderstorms through the early evening hours. Just a couple of
minor tweaks to the current grids for the update, mainly to account
for going trends. 41
Cpv17
Posts: 5234
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

DoctorMu wrote: Wed Aug 14, 2019 11:13 am
Scott747 wrote: Tue Aug 13, 2019 6:04 pm Operational GFS is just a mess now. At least it's somewhat coming inline with what the legacy and euro is showing though much stronger and further e towards Louisiana.

It's a wreck. Each run is basically a blind monkey with darts. Legacy is more consistent, correct, and entertaining. Canadian and Euro have been more sensible.
The GFS is wanting to send this into Louisiana and we get left on the dry side again..no thanks. And the CMC isn’t even picking up on it.
User avatar
Texaspirate11
Posts: 1278
Joined: Tue Dec 31, 2013 12:24 am
Contact:

GFS always wants to wipe out Texas first - i'm not concerned about this one.
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
stormlover
Posts: 439
Joined: Wed Dec 04, 2013 10:21 am
Location: Lumberton TX
Contact:

Post Reply
  • Information
  • Who is online

    Users browsing this forum: Ahrefs [Bot], Bing [Bot] and 89 guests