August 2019: Weak Cold Front/Rain Chances To End August

[srainhoutx]

We may see a bit of relief from this hot and dry pattern around mid week. The computer models are suggesting the Heat Ridge shifts a bit West and a frontal boundary sags into North Texas with a shortwave (upper air disturbance) Wednesday into Thursday. The GFS is bullish on pushing the frontal boundary into our Region bringing some showers/storms and some drier air for the coming weekend.

[DoctorMu]

The Canadian is a lot more confident in the cold front robustness than GFS or the Euro. However, Temperatures have been predicted to "normalize" after Tuesday.

Canadian, Ensemble move the ridge WNW to NM, with a dip in the jet to the east, giving us some back door relief. Any rain though is Houston and east towards Beaumont. GFS sniffs out a weak Gulf tropical system in the last week of August, heading into Louisiana, again. An EPAC storm is also a feature.

[Cpv17]

Hottest day of the summer here today at 99. We finally cracked 96 here.

[DoctorMu]

Hottest day of the summer here today at 99. We finally cracked 96 here.

101°F here, after 100°F Friday and Saturday.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Hottest day of the summer here today at 99. We finally cracked 96 here.

101°F here, after 100°F Friday and Saturday.

I was at Fan Day today in CS. It felt like we were walking on the Sun outside Kyle Field.

[Cromagnum]

Over 100 the last 3 days at my house

[Pas_Bon]

Hottest day of the summer here today at 99. We finally cracked 96 here.

101°F here, after 100°F Friday and Saturday.

I was at Fan Day today in CS. It felt like we were walking on the Sun outside Kyle Field.

‘Twas a nicer day in Baton Rouge ;-P

[DoctorMu]

Hottest day of the summer here today at 99. We finally cracked 96 here.

101°F here, after 100°F Friday and Saturday.

I was at Fan Day today in CS. It felt like we were walking on the Sun outside Kyle Field.

Yeah, welcome to Brazos Co. in August! Especially with all that concrete near Kyle. Aggies love them some concrete.

00Z Canadian really selling some relief. Not getting my hopes up. I've never seen a cold front in July, then another one in the first half of August here.

For your entertainment:




CMC is selling something even more potent in 10 days heading down the plains. GFS



GFS has far milder intrusions...we'll see.

[Katdaddy]

The excessive heat will continue today and Tuesday but slightly cooler temps and chance of showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday and Thursday with a weak backdoor front drifting into SE TX from the NE. Hopefully we some well needed rain midweek.

[srainhoutx]

Monday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

Mini heatwave will end by mid week as a weak front approaches from the ENE/NE

Houston has hit 101 for the last 4 days straight and this should happen again today and tomorrow. This mini heat wave has been most brutal along the coast where Galveston and Palacios have failed to fall below the low 80’s for several days. In addition to the heat, the high temperatures are quickly drying out fine fuels over the area with a spike in KBD values over the weekend. South and southwesterly winds in the afternoon hours along with moderate RH away from the coast continue to support decent wildfire conditions over the area and there has been a recent increase in fire activity over the last week. Hottest period of this current heatwave will likely be tomorrow as compressional heating ahead of a weak boundary yields high temperatures easily in the lower 100’s over the area.

Mid Week:
Good news is that the ridge of high pressure over the area will shift toward the west and allow a weak boundary and higher moisture to drift into the area from the ENE/NE as early as late Tuesday, but more likely on Wednesday and Thursday. Scattered strong to even severe thunderstorms will be possible is association with this boundary as it sags SW/WSW into the region by the middle of the week. This should help break the heat wave and produce some scattered rainfall across the area both Wednesday and Thursday.

Gulf:
A few forecast models show a weak area of low pressure developing over the extreme NE Gulf of Mexico in association with a weak trough of low pressure and decaying frontal boundary mid to late this week. For now will just monitor to see if anything is able to develop at the surface. Steering winds are very light so if anything were to form it will not be moving anywhere fast.

[BlueJay]

Thank you Willis Carrier for inventing air conditioning!

https://www.livescience.com/45268-who-i ... oning.html

[MontgomeryCoWx]

101°F here, after 100°F Friday and Saturday.

I was at Fan Day today in CS. It felt like we were walking on the Sun outside Kyle Field.

‘Twas a nicer day in Baton Rouge ;-P

Pfft...

I'm headed your way tomorrow. I'm in NOLA and BR Tuesday through Thursday for work.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 121442
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
942 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019

.SHORT TERM...

Upper air analysis at 500mb shows 594/595dm heights over much of
Texas with the ridge so not much change at all from yesterday. So
basically what we had for a forecast yesterday continues to be the
best forecast for today. Heat advisory will continue today and
likely extended another day to Tuesday. For Wednesday we will
probably need a heat advisory one last time as temps should drop
some on Thursday with a frontal boundary in the area.

Overpeck

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 102 79 103 79 101 / 0 0 0 10 30
Houston (IAH) 101 81 101 81 99 / 10 0 10 10 40
Galveston (GLS) 94 84 94 84 95 / 10 0 0 10 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following
zones: Austin...Brazoria Islands...Brazos...Burleson...
Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal
Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...
Fort Bend...Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...
Grimes...Houston...Inland Brazoria...Inland Galveston...
Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland Matagorda...
Madison...Matagorda Islands...Montgomery...Northern
Liberty...Polk...San Jacinto...Southern Liberty...Trinity...
Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...39

[Pas_Bon]

I was at Fan Day today in CS. It felt like we were walking on the Sun outside Kyle Field.

‘Twas a nicer day in Baton Rouge ;-P

Pfft...

I'm headed your way tomorrow. I'm in NOLA and BR Tuesday through Thursday for work.

Actually, I'm in Conroe, but those are my old stomping grounds. Safe travels!

[MontgomeryCoWx]

‘Twas a nicer day in Baton Rouge ;-P

Pfft...

I'm headed your way tomorrow. I'm in NOLA and BR Tuesday through Thursday for work.

Actually, I'm in Conroe, but those are my old stomping grounds. Safe travels!

Thank you. Speaking of your name, I used to tailgate with a Krewe at LSU by your name. Before that they were the Krewe of Ragoo.

[Pas_Bon]

Pfft...

I'm headed your way tomorrow. I'm in NOLA and BR Tuesday through Thursday for work.

Actually, I'm in Conroe, but those are my old stomping grounds. Safe travels!

Thank you. Speaking of your name, I used to tailgate with a Krewe at LSU by your name. Before that they were the Krewe of Ragoo.

Same!

[Cpv17]

Wow .. fantasy land, but still wow

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Actually, I'm in Conroe, but those are my old stomping grounds. Safe travels!

Thank you. Speaking of your name, I used to tailgate with a Krewe at LSU by your name. Before that they were the Krewe of Ragoo.

Same!

Oh boy. We know a lot of the same people. If you talk to ET1 and ET2, tell them the crazy Aggie said hello. I’ve run into them time to time Friday nights at walk ons before LSU-A&M games

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Wow .. fantasy land, but still wow

No thanks, we don’t want a cane ruining the opening weekend of CFB in Texas.

[Pas_Bon]

Thank you. Speaking of your name, I used to tailgate with a Krewe at LSU by your name. Before that they were the Krewe of Ragoo.

Same!

Oh boy. We know a lot of the same people. If you talk to ET1 and ET2, tell them the crazy Aggie said hello. I’ve run into them time to time Friday nights at walk ons before LSU-A&M games

Wow. Will do! My moniker is the same across the LSU inter webs.