July 2019: Warming Trend/Slight Chances For Rain
Updated cone from NHC
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srainhoutx
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New information from NHC. Hurricane Watches extended West to Cameron, Louisiana
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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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Texaspirate11
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HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 87.4W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM ESE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
The Storm Surge Watch has been extended westward to Intracoastal
City Louisiana.
A Hurricane Watch has been issued from the Mouth of the Mississippi
River westward to Cameron Louisiana.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from north of the Mouth of
the Mississippi River to the Mouth of the Pearl River.
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 87.4W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM ESE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
The Storm Surge Watch has been extended westward to Intracoastal
City Louisiana.
A Hurricane Watch has been issued from the Mouth of the Mississippi
River westward to Cameron Louisiana.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from north of the Mouth of
the Mississippi River to the Mouth of the Pearl River.
Last edited by Texaspirate11 on Wed Jul 10, 2019 4:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Kingwood36
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Think it will move again once a center is located?
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srainhoutx
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
400 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019
Data from An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft, surface
observations, and satellite imagery indicate that the broad low
pressure system located over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico still
lacks a well-defined circulation center. Multiple low-level swirls
associated with individual convective cells were noted in the
aircraft wind data. However, shower and thunderstorm activity has
been increasing over the past couple of hours in the previously
convective-free northern semicircle, an indication that low-level
wind field is beginning to improve in that region of the cyclone.
Upper-level outflow has become well established except to the north
where modest northerly wind shear is inhibiting the outflow. The
initial intensity of 25 kt is based on earlier scatterometer wind
data and recent recon winds of 25-30 kt to the south and west of the
center.
The initial motion estimate remains 245/07 kt. The latest model
guidance continues in good agreement on the cyclone moving generally
toward the west-southwest or southwest for the next 24 hours or so,
followed by a westward motion on Friday. Afterwards, however, the
model guidance diverges significantly. The 12Z ECMWF, GFS, HWRF,
and HMON models have shifted farther east and turn the cyclone
northwestward to northward in 48-72 hours, moving it inland along
the south-central and southeastern coasts of Louisiana. In contrast,
the UKMET has shifted farther west and keeps the system on more of
westward track, taking it inland along the central Texas coast. The
main difference is how the models handle the ridge to the north,
with the ECMWF, GFS, HWRF, and HMON rapidly eroding the ridge as a
weak shortwave trough passes to the north of the cyclone, whereas
the UKMET shows the ridge not weakening as much due to the
shortwave trough weakening as it lifts out to the east, which
allows the ridge to remain intact. Due to this significant
bifurcation in NHC's most reliable track model guidance, the best
course of action is to slow down the forward speed and only make
minor adjustments to the overall tack, which has been shifted
slightly to the east, but not as far east as the simple consensus
and HCCA models.
Only slow strengthening is forecast for the next 24-36 hours due to
the lack of a well-defined center and inner-core wind field, along
with some modest northerly wind shear. By 48 hours and beyond,
however, the combination of very low vertical wind shear, an
impressive outflow pattern forecast by all of the global and
regional models, and anomalously warm sea-surface temperatures of
30-31C should allow for significant intensification to hurricane
strength before landfall occurs after 72 hours. Given that the
system is still in the formative stages, the official intensity
forecast remains a little below IVCN consensus through 48
hours and trends higher toward the ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance at
72 hours.
Key Messages:
1. A tropical depression is expected to form by Thursday over the
northern Gulf of Mexico. Conditions appear favorable for this system
to strengthen to a hurricane that will bring storm surge, rainfall,
and wind hazards to the central Gulf Coast.
2. A dangerous storm surge is possible in portions of southern and
southeastern Louisiana where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect.
Additional storm surge watches may be needed later tonight or
tomorrow. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of
this system and listen to any advice given by local officials.
3. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for much of the Louisiana coast
and additional tropical storm or hurricane watches could be needed
later tonight or tomorrow. Residents in the watch area should ensure
they have their hurricane plan in place.
4. The slow movement of this system will result in a long duration
heavy rainfall threat along the central Gulf Coast and inland
through the lower Mississippi Valley through the weekend and
potentially into early next week. Flash flooding and river flooding
will become increasingly likely, some of which may be significant,
especially along and east of the track of the system.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/2100Z 28.1N 87.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 11/0600Z 27.7N 88.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 11/1800Z 27.5N 89.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
36H 12/0600Z 27.6N 90.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 28.2N 91.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 13/1800Z 29.3N 92.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 14/1800Z 31.9N 93.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
120H 15/1800Z 34.8N 93.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
$$
Forecaster Stewart
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
400 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019
Data from An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft, surface
observations, and satellite imagery indicate that the broad low
pressure system located over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico still
lacks a well-defined circulation center. Multiple low-level swirls
associated with individual convective cells were noted in the
aircraft wind data. However, shower and thunderstorm activity has
been increasing over the past couple of hours in the previously
convective-free northern semicircle, an indication that low-level
wind field is beginning to improve in that region of the cyclone.
Upper-level outflow has become well established except to the north
where modest northerly wind shear is inhibiting the outflow. The
initial intensity of 25 kt is based on earlier scatterometer wind
data and recent recon winds of 25-30 kt to the south and west of the
center.
The initial motion estimate remains 245/07 kt. The latest model
guidance continues in good agreement on the cyclone moving generally
toward the west-southwest or southwest for the next 24 hours or so,
followed by a westward motion on Friday. Afterwards, however, the
model guidance diverges significantly. The 12Z ECMWF, GFS, HWRF,
and HMON models have shifted farther east and turn the cyclone
northwestward to northward in 48-72 hours, moving it inland along
the south-central and southeastern coasts of Louisiana. In contrast,
the UKMET has shifted farther west and keeps the system on more of
westward track, taking it inland along the central Texas coast. The
main difference is how the models handle the ridge to the north,
with the ECMWF, GFS, HWRF, and HMON rapidly eroding the ridge as a
weak shortwave trough passes to the north of the cyclone, whereas
the UKMET shows the ridge not weakening as much due to the
shortwave trough weakening as it lifts out to the east, which
allows the ridge to remain intact. Due to this significant
bifurcation in NHC's most reliable track model guidance, the best
course of action is to slow down the forward speed and only make
minor adjustments to the overall tack, which has been shifted
slightly to the east, but not as far east as the simple consensus
and HCCA models.
Only slow strengthening is forecast for the next 24-36 hours due to
the lack of a well-defined center and inner-core wind field, along
with some modest northerly wind shear. By 48 hours and beyond,
however, the combination of very low vertical wind shear, an
impressive outflow pattern forecast by all of the global and
regional models, and anomalously warm sea-surface temperatures of
30-31C should allow for significant intensification to hurricane
strength before landfall occurs after 72 hours. Given that the
system is still in the formative stages, the official intensity
forecast remains a little below IVCN consensus through 48
hours and trends higher toward the ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance at
72 hours.
Key Messages:
1. A tropical depression is expected to form by Thursday over the
northern Gulf of Mexico. Conditions appear favorable for this system
to strengthen to a hurricane that will bring storm surge, rainfall,
and wind hazards to the central Gulf Coast.
2. A dangerous storm surge is possible in portions of southern and
southeastern Louisiana where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect.
Additional storm surge watches may be needed later tonight or
tomorrow. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of
this system and listen to any advice given by local officials.
3. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for much of the Louisiana coast
and additional tropical storm or hurricane watches could be needed
later tonight or tomorrow. Residents in the watch area should ensure
they have their hurricane plan in place.
4. The slow movement of this system will result in a long duration
heavy rainfall threat along the central Gulf Coast and inland
through the lower Mississippi Valley through the weekend and
potentially into early next week. Flash flooding and river flooding
will become increasingly likely, some of which may be significant,
especially along and east of the track of the system.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/2100Z 28.1N 87.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 11/0600Z 27.7N 88.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 11/1800Z 27.5N 89.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
36H 12/0600Z 27.6N 90.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 28.2N 91.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 13/1800Z 29.3N 92.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 14/1800Z 31.9N 93.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
120H 15/1800Z 34.8N 93.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
$$
Forecaster Stewart
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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Kingwood36
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additional tropical storm or hurricane watches could be needed
later tonight or tomorrow.?? Where would those be?
later tonight or tomorrow.?? Where would those be?
Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 10, 2019 4:29 pm additional tropical storm or hurricane watches could be needed
later tonight or tomorrow.?? Where would those be?
West
Man, NHC giving a lot of love to the UKMET.
Some serious weight given to the Ukie. That model has come a long way over the years. Used to be one of those we made fun of.
Keep in mind it was the 0z cycle of the euro ensembles that was showing what the Ukie is. I'm sure they have taken that into account.
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dbrooks77346
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So we are pretty confident that this is a LA Storm ? Or are we waiting until the COC is formed?
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srainhoutx
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WE are not confident any final solution at this time. COC or not, these close in home grown tropical cyclones have a history of throwing a lot of curveballs right up to landfall and beyond...dbrooks77346 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 10, 2019 4:36 pm So we are pretty confident that this is a LA Storm ? Or are we waiting until the COC is formed?
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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Jim Cantore just arrived in LC airport. Now if thats the location he stays, no clue. But he has arrived in lake charles and is now on the gulf coast!
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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dbrooks77346
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Understood. Trying to advised some co-workers that things can flip again.srainhoutx wrote: ↑Wed Jul 10, 2019 4:39 pmWE are not confident any final solution at this time. COC or not, these close in home grown tropical cyclones have a history of throwing a lot of curveballs right up to landfall and beyond...dbrooks77346 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 10, 2019 4:36 pm So we are pretty confident that this is a LA Storm ? Or are we waiting until the COC is formed?