July 2019: Warming Trend/Slight Chances For Rain

[Kingwood36]

The consolidation to the south where recon found a slight wind shift is probably where you will see the center form. That is where a lot of models indicate it will occur. With that said, if that does happen it looks to be ~30-50miles south of what models are showing. Will, that have much impact on the overall track? I don't think as much as we think. I think what will be more determining is how fast this storm intensifies and can feel the impacts of the trough.

So do we want the strom to feel the trough or we dont want it to feel it? Sorry for all the amateur questions just learning as we go

[MontgomeryCoWx]

The consolidation to the south where recon found a slight wind shift is probably where you will see the center form. That is where a lot of models indicate it will occur. With that said, if that does happen it looks to be ~30-50miles south of what models are showing. Will, that have much impact on the overall track? I don't think as much as we think. I think what will be more determining is how fast this storm intensifies and can feel the impacts of the trough.

Yep. I don’t think this any gets ramped up until late Thursday at best. It could drift further west and south in that time. A lot of people thought today.

[Andrew]

The consolidation to the south where recon found a slight wind shift is probably where you will see the center form. That is where a lot of models indicate it will occur. With that said, if that does happen it looks to be ~30-50miles south of what models are showing. Will, that have much impact on the overall track? I don't think as much as we think. I think what will be more determining is how fast this storm intensifies and can feel the impacts of the trough.

Yep. I don’t think this any gets ramped up until late Thursday at best. It could drift further west and south in that time. A lot of people thought today.

I could see Thursday morning, especially if convection continues to erupt over the MLC. With that said, it could be earlier if politics comes into play.

[djmike]

Can someone post the latest euro ensembles? I missed it.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

The consolidation to the south where recon found a slight wind shift is probably where you will see the center form. That is where a lot of models indicate it will occur. With that said, if that does happen it looks to be ~30-50miles south of what models are showing. Will, that have much impact on the overall track? I don't think as much as we think. I think what will be more determining is how fast this storm intensifies and can feel the impacts of the trough.

Yep. I don’t think this any gets ramped up until late Thursday at best. It could drift further west and south in that time. A lot of people thought today.

I could see Thursday morning, especially if convection continues to erupt over the MLC. With that said, it could be earlier if politics comes into play.

By politics, I assume you are referring to the NHC calling it early?

[sau27]

12Z euro ensembles look like the spread is going to shift east from the 00Z. More clustered around the operational run.

[stormlover]

I will say this is center is more south than models will be more west

[txbear]

What's the boards' thoughts on the reliability (or credibility) of the HWRF?

[djmike]

Next track shift. West or east? Thoughts?

[mcheer23]

Next track shift. West or east? Thoughts?

East, but it will continue to shift both directions until there is a defined center.

[Rip76]

East for sure

[srainhoutx]

18Z Early track guidance...Official raises an eyebrow...

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I’m on board saying that I’m selling an east of Lafayette solution. Common sense and a couple decades of following these storms tell me that I should go with my gut.

Still sticking with my original prediction

[mcheer23]

I’m on board saying that I’m selling an east of Lafayette solution. Common sense and a couple decades of following these storms tell me that I should go with my gut.

Still sticking with my original prediction

What was your original

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I’m on board saying that I’m selling an east of Lafayette solution. Common sense and a couple decades of following these storms tell me that I should go with my gut.

Still sticking with my original prediction

What was your original

Lake Charles

[snowman65]

I will gladly accept anything east of me in Orange!!

[txbear]

18Z Early track guidance...Official raises an eyebrow...

I posed a question earlier about the credibility of the HWRF, but this preliminary spaghetti plot lines up with what the 12z HWRF is showing. Looks like a decently potent Cat 1 for LA.

[srainhoutx]

18Z Early track guidance...Official raises an eyebrow...

I posed a question earlier about the credibility of the HWRF, but this preliminary spaghetti plot lines up with what the 12z HWRF is showing. Looks like a decently potent Cat 1 for LA.

It is a Hurricane High Resolution model used by the NHC, but it has been known to be a wee bit too extreme at times with intensity. Like all models, it is another tool in the tool box...so to speak.

[txbear]

thanks, srain. hurricanes are way outside my wheelhouse, as opposed to the supercells i've grown accustomed to...as a very amateur wx enthusiast.

[Texaspirate11]

I'm thinking Lake Charles