July 2019: Warming Trend/Slight Chances For Rain

[Kingwood36]

UKMET comes in around the Brazoria/ Matagorda county line. Strong hurricane.

Is that a real possibility? My mom lives in freeport

[davidiowx]

UKMET comes in around the Brazoria/ Matagorda county line. Strong hurricane.

Is that a real possibility? My mom lives in freeport

Nothing is out of the realm of possibilities right now. Models are all over the place from mid Texas Coastline all the way to the Florida panhandle it seems. Hopefully the recon mission will help a little bit.

[sau27]

UKMET comes in around the Brazoria/ Matagorda county line. Strong hurricane.

Hopefully that is an outlier. A strong hurricane land falling just SW of Houston is pretty much the "nightmare" scenario for the metro area.

[Andrew]

CMC taking a west trend. Looking like the border for landfall

[mcheer23]

Many UKMET and EURO ensembles also show a track toward SE Texas.

[stormlover]

CMC pretty bad though huh

[Andrew]

CMC pretty bad though huh

It's not the most reliable but is useful for upper-level synoptic setup and also trends. Heck, comparing it to the legacy GFS it looks to be doing a lot better than that right now.

[snowman65]

I remember back when Florida was the "hurricane" state. pretty sure we have taken that crown away.

[dbrooks77346]

Many UKMET and EURO ensembles also show a track toward SE Texas.

so how reliable is the UKMET?

[sau27]

Many UKMET and EURO ensembles also show a track toward SE Texas.

I wasn’t sure if the UKMET did ensembles but I’d be curious to know what their spread is like if you or someone could share.

[Andrew]

Many UKMET and EURO ensembles also show a track toward SE Texas.

so how reliable is the UKMET?

Over the last couple of years it has been the second most reliable behind the ECMWF

[stormlover]

Andrew, we are 3 days out lol I mean what is ur gut telling u? Will the trough be little stronger? Will the system not feel it?

[srainhoutx]

New RECON Missions tasked for tomorrow and Friday...no high altitude G-IV planned at this time...

Code: Select all

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1245 PM EDT WED 10 JULY 2019
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 11/1100Z TO 12/1100Z JULY 2019
         TCPOD NUMBER.....19-043

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO
       FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 42          FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
       A. 11/2200Z                   A. 11/2330Z,12/0530Z
       B. NOAA2 0602A CYCLONE        B. AFXXX 0702A CYCLONE
       C. 11/2000Z                   C. 11/2230Z
       D. 27.4N 88.8W                D. 27.4N 89.3W
       E. 11/2130Z TO 12/0300Z       E. 11/2300Z TO 12/0530Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT           F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

       FLIGHT THREE - NOAA 42        FLIGHT FOUR - TEAL 75
       A. 12/1000Z                   A. 12/1130Z,1730Z
       B. NOAA2 0802A CYCLONE        B. AFXXX 0902A CYCLONE
       C. 12/0800Z                   C. 12/1030Z
       D. 27.5N 90.2W                D. 27.6N 90.4W
       E. 12/0930Z TO 12/1500Z       E. 12/1100Z TO 12/1730Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT           F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
       A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND REMAINS
          A THREAT.
       B. NOAA 42 P-3 TDR MISSION DEPARTING KLAL AT 12/2000Z.

[Andrew]

Andrew, we are 3 days out lol I mean what is ur gut telling u? Will the trough be little stronger? Will the system not feel it?

Based on everything right now I think the border or east will be the likely landfall point. With that said, there is still a lot of uncertainty for a storm that is expected to make landfall in 3 days. What raises an eyebrow for me is the UKMET and how much the ECMWF shifted west last night. The 12z run for the ECMWF will be very crucial.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Andrew, we are 3 days out lol I mean what is ur gut telling u? Will the trough be little stronger? Will the system not feel it?

Based on everything right now I think the border or east will be the likely landfall point. With that said, there is still a lot of uncertainty for a storm that is expected to make landfall in 3 days. What raises an eyebrow for me is the UKMET and how much the ECMWF shifted west last night. The 12z run for the ECMWF will be very crucial.

My feeling stated very well.

[Kingwood36]

Andrew, we are 3 days out lol I mean what is ur gut telling u? Will the trough be little stronger? Will the system not feel it?

Based on everything right now I think the border or east will be the likely landfall point. With that said, there is still a lot of uncertainty for a storm that is expected to make landfall in 3 days. What raises an eyebrow for me is the UKMET and how much the ECMWF shifted west last night. The 12z run for the ECMWF will be very crucial.

My feeling stated very well.

When does that run

[Pas_Bon]

Based on everything right now I think the border or east will be the likely landfall point. With that said, there is still a lot of uncertainty for a storm that is expected to make landfall in 3 days. What raises an eyebrow for me is the UKMET and how much the ECMWF shifted west last night. The 12z run for the ECMWF will be very crucial.

My feeling stated very well.

When does that run

7am

[Andrew]

Based on everything right now I think the border or east will be the likely landfall point. With that said, there is still a lot of uncertainty for a storm that is expected to make landfall in 3 days. What raises an eyebrow for me is the UKMET and how much the ECMWF shifted west last night. The 12z run for the ECMWF will be very crucial.

My feeling stated very well.

When does that run

In the next 30min-1hr.

[unome]

I like that they are updating social media frequently

https://twitter.com/NWSWGRFC

Verified account @NWSWGRFC
11m11 minutes ago

"Gradient"...a sharp change in conditions across a short distance. Depending on the track and storm structure of soon to be "TWO/Barry", E TX could be on the edge from significant impacts. It is prudent to be prepared and be flexible with this situation this week. #92L

wgrfc 92l - Copy.jpg

[srainhoutx]

Our friend and 53rd Meteorologist Jeremy Dehart just took off to investigate the tropical disturbance...

Jeremy DeHart‏ @JeremyDeHart53d · 10m10 minutes ago
Getting ready to go investigate #PTC2. If and where we find a closed low level circulation today will be key to forecasting the storm's track and intensity throughout its development into future #Barry