July 2019: Warming Trend/Slight Chances For Rain

[Kingwood36]

Anyone think houston will be included in the watch area?

[Belmer]

First cone issued from the NHC on 'Potential Tropical Cyclone Two" along with advisory -

000
WTNT22 KNHC 101435
TCMAT2

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022019
1500 UTC WED JUL 10 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO MORGAN CITY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO MORGAN CITY

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION, FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE U.S. GULF COAST FROM THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCHES COULD BE
ISSUED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT WEST OF MORGAN CITY.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 86.4W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 86.4W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 86.1W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 27.9N 87.3W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 27.5N 88.2W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 27.4N 89.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 27.6N 90.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 28.7N 92.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 80SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 30.7N 93.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 32.6N 94.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.5N 86.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 10/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Scott747]

Will be interesting how they handle the first advisories. Where it looks like the center will finally take hold is a decent bit s of where the models have been 'initializing.'

[tireman4]

I echo what Steve is saying. It will get hectic in here as the hours and days go by. Be patient. Be prepared. Be vigilant. Restock your kit. Stay tuned to news outlets, NWS, here and the NHC. The pro and amateur mets will help.you through. Big thanks to Steve for his great forcasting( his long range is still amazing) and his tireless devotion to this board. Watch for trends in model runs...there will still be flip flops in our future

[davidiowx]

The 12z NAM is quite concerning for the Houston area... Yes it is the NAM and it is for entertainment purposes only, but it's been pretty consistent the past day or so.

[Kingwood36]

So we are in the cone..im guessing this will change once the recon plane goes in correct?

[srainhoutx]

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
1000 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019

High-resolution satellite imagery along with surface and upper-air
data indicate that the broad low pressure system located over the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico has become a little better defined. The
initial intensity of 25 kt is based on an average of 1-minute wind
speeds of 20-33 kt reported by ships and buoys well south of the
poorly defined center. Although the system is currently experiencing
some northerly vertical wind shear, the shear is expected to
gradually subside over the next day or so, and the low has a high
chance of becoming a tropical depression or tropical storm by
Thursday. Since this system has the potential to bring tropical
storm conditions and storm surge to portions of the coast of
Louisiana by late Thursday or Friday, Potential Tropical Cyclone
advisories are being initiated at this time.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 245/07 kt. Some erratic
motion will be possible during the 24 hours or until a well-defined
center develops. However, the general motion as indicated by the
global and regional models is expected to be toward the west-
southwest or southwest. By Friday, the cyclone is forecast to turn
toward the west-northwest and then turn northwestward by Saturday
into a developing break in a deep-layer ridge that currently extends
from the southeastern U.S. westward across the southern Plains and
into the Desert Southwest. The timing of the ridge breakdown owing
to a shortwave trough moving southeastward out of the northern
Plains will be critical since a later/earlier turn by the cyclone
would shift the track west/east of the current forecast. The model
guidance is widely divergent after 48 hours with the UKMET model the
farthest west showing landfall along the Upper Texas coast, and the
GFS and HMON models farther east with landfall in south-central
Louisiana. The ECMWF model is about midway between these two
extremes, and the official track forecast leans toward that
model since it has performed well during this system's
pre-development phase. Note that forecast uncertainty for
disturbances is generally larger than for tropical cyclones,
especially beyond 48-72 hours.

Only slow strengthening is expected for the next 24-36 hours due to
the lack of a well-defined center and inner-core wind field, along
with some modest northerly wind shear. By 48 hours and beyond,
however, the combination of atmospheric and oceanic conditions
become ideal for intensification. The very low shear shear
conditions, an impressive outflow pattern forecast by all of the
global and regional models, and anomalously warm sea-surface
temperatures of 30-31C argue for quick intensification, but given
that the system is still in the formative stages, the official
intensity forecast is a little below IVCN consensus through 48
hours and trends higher toward the ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance at
72 hours.

Key Messages:

1. A tropical depression is expected to form later today or
Thursday. Conditions appear favorable for this system to strengthen
to a hurricane at it approaches the central Gulf Coast by the
weekend.

2. Dangerous storm surge is possible in portions of southeast
Louisiana, and a Storm Surge Watch has been issued for this area.
The risk for dangerous storm surge impacts also exists farther west
along the Louisiana coast into the Upper Texas coast, and additional
storm surge watches may be needed later today or tonight. Residents
in these areas should monitor the progress of this system and listen
to any advice given by local officials.

3. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for portions of the
Louisiana coast and additional Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches
could be needed later today or tonight for the remainder of the
Louisiana coast and the Upper Texas Coast.

4. The system has the potential to produce very heavy rainfall along
and inland of the central Gulf Coast through early next week. For
more information, see products from your local National Weather
Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 28.5N 86.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 11/0000Z 27.9N 87.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 11/1200Z 27.5N 88.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H 12/0000Z 27.4N 89.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 27.6N 90.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 28.7N 92.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 14/1200Z 30.7N 93.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
120H 15/1200Z 32.6N 94.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Texaspirate11]

So we are in the cone..im guessing this will change once the recon plane goes in correct?

For now - its a probable path

[tireman4]

We will know a lot more after data from the planes are factored into the models.

[Scott747]

Well that first disco is a little uncomfortable. Basically forecasting a potential ri cycle into landfall.

[Kingwood36]

Should i start to go buy water now ir is it still to early?

[davidiowx]

Should i start to go buy water now ir is it still to early?

It's never too early to have supplies living along any coastline that has the potential to be impacted by a hurricane. I have multiple cases of water stored away year round in the event something happens!

[Scott747]

Should i start to go buy water now ir is it still to early?

I'd recommend that anyone that can get out and stock up ahead of any potential rush should do so.

Not to alarm anyone but because it's the prudent thing to do. Just in case....

[jabcwb2]

Hi Folks!
I've been a lurker for many years - It's really helpful if everyone will go in to their profile and update the area of town you live in. That way, when we post updates on our current location, such as flooding, wind strength, etc, we know what area you are referring to.

THANKS!!!!!!!!!

[Rip76]

Should i start to go buy water now ir is it still to early?

And you can never have too much water anyway.

[snowman65]

new gfs coming out and it still has it nowhere near us...almost in NOLA

[mcheer23]

UKMET has made yet another west shift

[stormlover]

Gfs sucks

[mcheer23]

UKMET comes in around the Brazoria/ Matagorda county line. Strong hurricane.

[tireman4]

Go. Now. At least have it ready..if we get something or not. Always be prepared