July 2019: Warming Trend/Slight Chances For Rain

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Ptarmigan
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srainhoutx wrote: Tue Jul 09, 2019 9:23 pm I'm going to get on my soap box a moment. I see some of the Houston local TV showing Harvey flooding as a roll in for Tropical coverage. This is absolutely irresponsible and flat out wrong!!
Harvey is a completely different beast from Invest 92L.
Pas_Bon
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This comes from a sheer gut feeling.....no morsel of professional meteorology forms a basis for this message.

I feel that the Upper Texas Coast will be Barry’s legacy - whatever that legacy may be.
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Ptarmigan
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Saw this 342 hour GFS forecast model.

Image

It is long range, so it means nothing.
Scott747
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Oy. This is gonna be tight. It's definitely further w. If it's gonna turn it needs to do it in the next few frames.
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Scott747 wrote: Tue Jul 09, 2019 11:11 pm Oy. This is gonna be tight. It's definitely further w. If it's gonna turn it needs to do it in the next few frames.
And a sharp turn to the north. I was actually a little surprised. It seemed like it was going a little more west...
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Scott747 wrote: Tue Jul 09, 2019 11:11 pm Oy. This is gonna be tight. It's definitely further w. If it's gonna turn it needs to do it in the next few frames.
Shocked by the sudden turn...
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Yeah it stopped on a dime and quickly turned n or ne. Not sure I buy that quick of a movement.

Small trend w though due more to a quicker movement. Ukie will be up soon along with the HWRF and HMON. Should know soon if any trend w is legit.
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UKMET with a strong hurricane into Galveston.
Scott747
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Well that escalated quickly....
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srainhoutx
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Z2GFTdQ.jpg
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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stormlover
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How good is the ukmet
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Jesus that came quick..guess its our turn to flip flop again
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srainhoutx
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stormlover wrote: Tue Jul 09, 2019 11:35 pm How good is the ukmet
Second best behind the European in the day 5 or less range.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Mmmm interesting
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So i guess its safe to say the models are shifting back towards texas?
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I suspect after scaling back the extent of the range of the 5 day TWO that took us out of it. It will be extended back towards us.
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It’s safe to say I’ll be driving home from Dallas in the morning.
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Kingwood36 wrote: Tue Jul 09, 2019 11:42 pm So i guess its safe to say the models are shifting back towards texas?
I'd say further w but not quite Texas. HWRF and the Euro will give us a better idea.
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Rip76
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Scott747 wrote: Tue Jul 09, 2019 11:44 pm
Kingwood36 wrote: Tue Jul 09, 2019 11:42 pm So i guess its safe to say the models are shifting back towards texas?
I'd say further w but not quite Texas. HWRF and the Euro will give us a better idea.
When do they come through?
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Rip76 wrote: Tue Jul 09, 2019 11:50 pm
Scott747 wrote: Tue Jul 09, 2019 11:44 pm
Kingwood36 wrote: Tue Jul 09, 2019 11:42 pm So i guess its safe to say the models are shifting back towards texas?
I'd say further w but not quite Texas. HWRF and the Euro will give us a better idea.
When do they come through?
HWRF just started running.

Euro around 1am
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