July 2019: Warming Trend/Slight Chances For Rain

[Cpv17]

Did the model consensus move east now to SE la??

Yes, but that doesn’t mean much right now.

[djmike]

Did the model consensus move east now to SE la??

Yes, but that doesn’t mean much right now.

Whys that? Doesnt NHC follow more of the consensus than one or two specific models? Just curious...

[Kingwood36]

So what's up with that 18z euro? Is that like the regular euro? Is it any good?

[Cpv17]

So what's up with that 18z euro? Is that like the regular euro? Is it any good?

I’m not sure. I just heard it’s new this year.

[stormlover]

Srain quick question, is the 18z euro like the 18z gfs meaning does it like data like the 18z gfs?

[Cpv17]

Did the model consensus move east now to SE la??

Yes, but that doesn’t mean much right now.

Whys that? Doesnt NHC follow more of the consensus than one or two specific models? Just curious...

The NHC tends to follow the TVCN model. Not just the consensus. I think they use a blend of the consensus and the TVCN. And it doesn’t mean a lot yet cuz the system doesn’t even have a center of circulation yet for the models to initialize from. Yesterday the consensus was over you, now it’s over NOLA. No telling where it’ll be tomorrow. We need that COC to form so the models have something to latch on to.

[djmike]

Yes, but that doesn’t mean much right now.

Whys that? Doesnt NHC follow more of the consensus than one or two specific models? Just curious...

The NHC tends to follow the TVCN model. Not just the consensus. I think they use a blend of the consensus and the TVCN. And it doesn’t mean a lot yet cuz the system doesn’t even have a center of circulation yet for the models to initialize from. Yesterday the consensus was over you, now it’s over NOLA. No telling where it’ll be tomorrow. We need that COC to form so the models have something to latch on to.

Aw! I see. Thanks for explaining.

[srainhoutx]

Srain quick question, is the 18z euro like the 18z gfs meaning does it like data like the 18z gfs?

There is a continuous data feed to the Global models. The 00Z and 12Z suite of guidance has more data ingested, but if/when special sounding balloon launches are requested for off hours (18Z) and RECON flights are ongoing, that very important data is also included in all of the guidance used by the NHC. Remember some of the models used by the NHC is not public therefore we never see those graphics.

[stormlover]

Thanks

[Cpv17]

Whys that? Doesnt NHC follow more of the consensus than one or two specific models? Just curious...

The NHC tends to follow the TVCN model. Not just the consensus. I think they use a blend of the consensus and the TVCN. And it doesn’t mean a lot yet cuz the system doesn’t even have a center of circulation yet for the models to initialize from. Yesterday the consensus was over you, now it’s over NOLA. No telling where it’ll be tomorrow. We need that COC to form so the models have something to latch on to.

Aw! I see. Thanks for explaining.

Anytime.

[srainhoutx]

I'm going to get on my soap box a moment. I see some of the Houston local TV showing Harvey flooding as a roll in for Tropical coverage. This is absolutely irresponsible and flat out wrong!!

[Scott747]

The off hour euro runs are based off fresh data and initialization. I just thought they were still only privately available. Definitely makes that 18z run interesting. Who had access and posted it?

[Cpv17]

The off hour euro runs are based off fresh data and initialization. I just thought they were still only privately available. Definitely makes that 18z run interesting. Who had access and posted it?

I saw it on Storm2k. Go on there and look for yourself. It basically misses the trough and the ridge builds back in and kicks it west into Texas. Pretty strong system too.

[cperk]

I'm going to get on my soap box a moment. I see some of the Houston local TV showing Harvey flooding as a roll in for Tropical coverage. This is absolutely irresponsible and flat out wrong!!

Yeah srainhoutx you're right to be pissed why bring those painful memories back just to get people to tune in.

[srainhoutx]

The off hour Euro images are coming from Ryan Maue's model page, Scott.

[cperk]

The off hour euro runs are based off fresh data and initialization. I just thought they were still only privately available. Definitely makes that 18z run interesting. Who had access and posted it?

I saw it on Storm2k. Go on there and look for yourself. It basically misses the trough and the ridge builds back in and kicks it west into Texas. Pretty strong system too.

Yeah I saw that on Storm2k also.

[Texaspirate11]

Levi at Tropical Tidbits has a good youtube on also talking about the stronger the storm becomes the more west it will go

[Kingwood36]

Were not out of the woods yet...

[Scott747]

The off hour Euro images are coming from Ryan Maue's model page, Scott.

Hmm. I need to make some calls to my oil & gas contacts. That's quite the shift.

HWRF and Ukie could be a foreshadow of a shift with the 0z suite.

[Kingwood36]

The off hour Euro images are coming from Ryan Maue's model page, Scott.

Hmm. I need to make some calls to my oil & gas contacts. That's quite the shift.

HWRF and Ukie could be a foreshadow of a shift with the 0z suite.

Oil and gas? I works for baker hughes haha!