July 2019: Warming Trend/Slight Chances For Rain

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[djmike]

At what time do the models run again?

[Cpv17]

At what time do the models run again?

12z Euro runs around 1-2pm

[dbrooks77346]

I have a question, I am new to the board but have been fascinated with weather and tropical storms for some years now.
so are they running these models based on area they think the low will form?

[srainhoutx]

I have a question, I am new to the board but have been fascinated with weather and tropical storms for some years now.
so are they running these models based on area they think the low will form?

Welcome dbrooks77346 and very good question! Simply put, the various computer models try to resolves many factors/elements throughout the atmosphere. Data that is received or ingested come from satellites, airborne aircraft and balloon launches as well a aircraft reconnaissance missions as well as other. The various resolutions are painted out in graphical form throughout many levels from Jetstream winds and higher, mid/upper level features such as the vortices we are monitoring currently over the Florida Big Bend and the thunderstorms over the NE Gulf. The reason we see different solutions is due to the ability of each model to attempt to resolve what the future sensible weather pattern may bring. The computer models have come along way over the years, but still are only a tool that the meteorologists use to achieve a forecast of what is expected. So all that said, the computer models offer a very educated "guess" as to what any outcome could be.

It does appear we have the potential for organization later today into tomorrow as the mid/upper level areas of spin get over the very warm NE Gulf waters. That is when the National Hurricane Center believes a surface low pressure system will develop and start the process for the various "spins" to align or vertically stack throughout the atmosphere. If that does actually happen, the we likely will see a tropical depression form. I hope that very simple illustration helps a bit. Cheers!

[stormlover]

Srain, once it slowly gets little better organized models should really get a grasp huh ?

[srainhoutx]

Srain, once it slowly gets little better organized models should really get a grasp huh ?

Yes and add to that mix the Hurricane Hunter Reconnaissance missions scheduled to begin tomorrow mid morning. That data and the developing thunderstorm activity over the NE and Northern Gulf may well assist the models with their interpretation of what the future may hold the next several days. Remember, over and over again the various meteorologists have clearly stated this is a very complex and complicated forecast AND subject to a great deal of change. Nothing has changed those sentiments as of this morning.

[dbrooks77346]

I have a question, I am new to the board but have been fascinated with weather and tropical storms for some years now.
so are they running these models based on area they think the low will form?

Welcome dbrooks77346 and very good question! Simply put, the various computer models try to resolves many factors/elements throughout the atmosphere. Data that is received or ingested come from satellites, airborne aircraft and balloon launches as well a aircraft reconnaissance missions as well as other. The various resolutions are painted out in graphical form throughout many levels from Jetstream winds and higher, mid/upper level features such as the vortices we are monitoring currently over the Florida Big Bend and the thunderstorms over the NE Gulf. The reason we see different solutions is due to the ability of each model to attempt to resolve what the future sensible weather pattern may bring. The computer models have come along way over the years, but still are only a tool that the meteorologists use to achieve a forecast of what is expected. So all that said, the computer models offer a very educated "guess" as to what any outcome could be.

It does appear we have the potential for organization later today into tomorrow as the mid/upper level areas of spin get over the very warm NE Gulf waters. That is when the National Hurricane Center believes a surface low pressure system will develop and start the process for the various "spins" to align or vertically stack throughout the atmosphere. If that does actually happen, the we likely will see a tropical depression form. I hope that very simple illustration helps a bit. Cheers!

Thanks so much srainhoutx , this explains alot . I look forward to learning more. One thing I do know is these Gulf storms are very unpredictable and can surprise ya

[Cromagnum]

I have a question, I am new to the board but have been fascinated with weather and tropical storms for some years now.
so are they running these models based on area they think the low will form?

Welcome dbrooks77346 and very good question! Simply put, the various computer models try to resolves many factors/elements throughout the atmosphere. Data that is received or ingested come from satellites, airborne aircraft and balloon launches as well a aircraft reconnaissance missions as well as other. The various resolutions are painted out in graphical form throughout many levels from Jetstream winds and higher, mid/upper level features such as the vortices we are monitoring currently over the Florida Big Bend and the thunderstorms over the NE Gulf. The reason we see different solutions is due to the ability of each model to attempt to resolve what the future sensible weather pattern may bring. The computer models have come along way over the years, but still are only a tool that the meteorologists use to achieve a forecast of what is expected. So all that said, the computer models offer a very educated "guess" as to what any outcome could be.

It does appear we have the potential for organization later today into tomorrow as the mid/upper level areas of spin get over the very warm NE Gulf waters. That is when the National Hurricane Center believes a surface low pressure system will develop and start the process for the various "spins" to align or vertically stack throughout the atmosphere. If that does actually happen, the we likely will see a tropical depression form. I hope that very simple illustration helps a bit. Cheers!

Thanks so much srainhoutx , this explains alot . I look forward to learning more. One thing I do know is these Gulf storms are very unpredictable and can surprise ya

The anticyclone north of the low looks to be building west to me. I would expect more shifts to the west in future updates.

[Kingwood36]

Welcome dbrooks77346 and very good question! Simply put, the various computer models try to resolves many factors/elements throughout the atmosphere. Data that is received or ingested come from satellites, airborne aircraft and balloon launches as well a aircraft reconnaissance missions as well as other. The various resolutions are painted out in graphical form throughout many levels from Jetstream winds and higher, mid/upper level features such as the vortices we are monitoring currently over the Florida Big Bend and the thunderstorms over the NE Gulf. The reason we see different solutions is due to the ability of each model to attempt to resolve what the future sensible weather pattern may bring. The computer models have come along way over the years, but still are only a tool that the meteorologists use to achieve a forecast of what is expected. So all that said, the computer models offer a very educated "guess" as to what any outcome could be.

It does appear we have the potential for organization later today into tomorrow as the mid/upper level areas of spin get over the very warm NE Gulf waters. That is when the National Hurricane Center believes a surface low pressure system will develop and start the process for the various "spins" to align or vertically stack throughout the atmosphere. If that does actually happen, the we likely will see a tropical depression form. I hope that very simple illustration helps a bit. Cheers!

Thanks so much srainhoutx , this explains alot . I look forward to learning more. One thing I do know is these Gulf storms are very unpredictable and can surprise ya

The anticyclone north of the low looks to be building west to me. I would expect more shifts to the west in future updates.

I was just looking and thinking the same thing..

[Scott747]

It's not a building high to look out for. It's a trough that dips down enough to erode the Western flank of it that allows an escape route to the east of us. Why the euro and its ensembles shifted as they did on the 0z runs.

[jerryh421]

12z Nam 12km keeps the system along the coast west towards Texas. Not really much development from it. It doesn't dig the system far enough south. 3km Nam is much different though. Curious to see if the 12z GFS strengthens the system some based on all the activity in the Gulf.

[Kingwood36]

It's not a building high to look out for. It's a trough that dips down enough to erode the Western flank of it that allows an escape route to the east of us. Why the euro and its ensembles shifted as they did on the 0z runs.

So what would we need to happen to have it shift back west?

[dbrooks77346]

It's not a building high to look out for. It's a trough that dips down enough to erode the Western flank of it that allows an escape route to the east of us. Why the euro and its ensembles shifted as they did on the 0z runs.

Scott747 - I was just about to ask about this. So the trough is the key to the storm shifting east unless the center forms futher south right?

[Andrew]

It's not a building high to look out for. It's a trough that dips down enough to erode the Western flank of it that allows an escape route to the east of us. Why the euro and its ensembles shifted as they did on the 0z runs.

Scott747 - I was just about to ask about this. So the trough is the key to the storm shifting east unless the center forms futher south right?

It's about timing with the trough over the northeast U.S. and ridging building over the central plains and trying to expand SE. A lot of models are now showing the system not pushing as far south into the gulf which would allow for an easier pull north by the trough. The ECMWF has it going further south, but it also has the system developing a lot faster and "feeling out" the trough sooner. These are the main reasons you see the eastward trend overnight. Still going to see some run to run variability until (if) we get a more organized center.

[Scott747]

So far the 12z GFS is very similar to the run last night that approached the upper tx coast and a little stronger.

[Kingwood36]

So far the 12z GFS is very similar to the run last night that approached the upper tx coast and a little stronger.

So it shifted back west?

[davidiowx]

Looks like the GFS has it moving almost due west or WNW at 84 hours to 90 hours approaching the upper TX coastline.

[davidiowx]

Sharp turn N at hour 108 on the GFS taking it into LA around Pelican Island area

[Scott747]

So far the 12z GFS is very similar to the run last night that approached the upper tx coast and a little stronger.

So it shifted back west?

No. It shifted back towards something similar to the euro. Somewhere around Cameron/Holly Beach.