July 2019: Warming Trend/Slight Chances For Rain

[bdog38]

its coming.


Skidog47

[Scott747]

So far early in the 0z GFS run the track hasn't changed to much but it's a little stronger.

[Scott747]

Thru hr 96 it's definitely more organized and stronger plus a little further s.

[Cpv17]

GFS caving to the Euro somewhat.

[mcheer23]

GFS stronger with a landfall near Galveston

[Cpv17]

GFS stronger with a landfall near Galveston

To me it looks more like landfall in Chambers County instead of Galveston. At hour 126 it looks like it wants to hug the coastline, but then starts moving due north into Chambers County by hour 132 and floods the Golden Triangle and SW LA. Moving very slow. Significant flood threat. Not much for SE TX except the extreme eastern parts.

[Kingwood36]

GFS stronger with a landfall near Galveston

To me it looks more like landfall in Chambers County instead of Galveston. At hour 126 it looks like it wants to hug the coastline, but then starts moving due north into Chambers County by hour 132 and floods the Golden Triangle and SW LA. Moving very slow. Significant flood threat. Not much for SE TX except the extreme eastern parts.

Call me crazy but you seem like you want whatever this thing becomes to come here to se tx lol becareful what you wish for

[don]

To me it looks more like landfall in Chambers County instead of Galveston. At hour 126 it looks like it wants to hug the coastline, but then starts moving due north into Chambers County by hour 132 and floods the Golden Triangle and SW LA. Moving very slow. Significant flood threat. Not much for SE TX except the extreme eastern parts.

It actually shows landfall around Galveston Bay and it shows a dry west side because it starts to weaken the system as it nears the coast, it's a little too early to be reading into model qpf's... you seem to be reading too much from the models this far out...

[Cpv17]

GFS stronger with a landfall near Galveston

To me it looks more like landfall in Chambers County instead of Galveston. At hour 126 it looks like it wants to hug the coastline, but then starts moving due north into Chambers County by hour 132 and floods the Golden Triangle and SW LA. Moving very slow. Significant flood threat. Not much for SE TX except the extreme eastern parts.

Call me crazy but you seem like you want whatever this thing becomes to come here to se tx lol becareful what you wish for

I don’t want anything more than a few inches of rain and a weak tropical system mainly to keep temps down. If we get to be on the dry side we’ll be hot and dry and I really don’t want that lol especially since I have to work outside a lot.

[Cpv17]

To me it looks more like landfall in Chambers County instead of Galveston. At hour 126 it looks like it wants to hug the coastline, but then starts moving due north into Chambers County by hour 132 and floods the Golden Triangle and SW LA. Moving very slow. Significant flood threat. Not much for SE TX except the extreme eastern parts.

It actually shows landfall around Galveston Bay and it shows a dry west side because it starts to weaken the system as it nears the coast, it's a little too early to be reading into model qpf's... you seem to be reading too much from the models this far out...

I’m reading what the models are showing at the current time. I know they will change because it’s 4-6 days out.

[Scott747]

I've become much more confident in the HWRF. In fact I believe it was the best preforming model last year. Hopefully we get a run this cycle but we won't know till around 1230.

[don]

To me it looks more like landfall in Chambers County instead of Galveston. At hour 126 it looks like it wants to hug the coastline, but then starts moving due north into Chambers County by hour 132 and floods the Golden Triangle and SW LA. Moving very slow. Significant flood threat. Not much for SE TX except the extreme eastern parts.

It actually shows landfall around Galveston Bay and it shows a dry west side because it starts to weaken the system as it nears the coast, it's a little too early to be reading into model qpf's... you seem to be reading too much from the models this far out...

I’m reading what the models are showing at the current time. I know they will change because it’s 4-6 days out.

Then you probably should state that in your comments because you come off as if you take each model run verbatim...

[Texaspirate11]

GFS caving to the Euro somewhat.

whoop! knew it would eventually

[Cpv17]

It actually shows landfall around Galveston Bay and it shows a dry west side because it starts to weaken the system as it nears the coast, it's a little too early to be reading into model qpf's... you seem to be reading too much from the models this far out...

I’m reading what the models are showing at the current time. I know they will change because it’s 4-6 days out.

Then you probably should state that in your comments because you come off as if you take each model run verbatim...

I’ve been following the weather for 20+ years. I know better than to do that.

[Scott747]

0z euro is much further e. Closer to Morgan City.

[DoctorMu]

GEFS Ensemble is estimate 6-12 inches of rain near Beaumont. 4-6 in Houston. About 2 min in CLL.
The 0z Euro run is nudging east so far, more into Louisiana. We'll see shortly how strong that SEC ridging is.

[DoctorMu]

That didn't take long. The storm ejects up through Ruston at 144. Nice head fake on GFS!


lol We're still 5+ days out.

[mcheer23]

Models will keep shifting until we have a defined center over water

[Katdaddy]

A few thunderstorms across the NE GOM this morning as Invest 92L slowly drifts SW toward the coast. Lots of unknowns continue this morning. Invest 92L remains at an 80% chance of tropical development the next 5 days and still awaiting where the low pressure center will form across the NE GOM. A motion toward the N GOM is being display by model. For now the “wait and see” continues. This is the time to have a plan and be prepared.

From the Houston-Galveston NWS morning AFD:

These is the best cast and worst case scenarios for SE Texas as of this moment:

Best Case: If the low propagates into the LA/MS coast, then the bulk of the storm`s rainfall activity and strongest wind field would remain outside of SE Texas. Thus, a warmer and drier trend would be expected. Main impacts with this scenario would be possible high heat index values (maybe reaching Heat Advisory criteria) along with some convective activity over the local area.

Worst Case: If the low propagates more to the west and into the vicinity of the TX/LA coast, then the bulk of the storm`s rainfall activity and strongest wind field would move in or near SE Texas, or at least portions of it. Thus, a wetter forecast pattern would be expected over our local area. However, due to the uncertainty of the storm`s intensity, specific wind and rainfall values are unknown at this time.

The General Message: There are still too many uncertainties in regards of the development and track of the system. Regardless of development, now is the time to verify your hurricane preparedness plan with your family and neighbors. Continue to monitor your local NWS and NHC forecasts for the latest information regarding
this system.

[Kingwood36]

So the modles fillped east..isnt the first and im sure it wont be the last