July 2019: Warming Trend/Slight Chances For Rain

[mcheer23]

18z GFS doesn’t even look to develop this. Maybe a depression at most? And most of the rain stays out over the Gulf and southern LA.

GFS has really been having a hard time.

[Cpv17]

18z GFS doesn’t even look to develop this. Maybe a depression at most? And most of the rain stays out over the Gulf and southern LA.

GFS has really been having a hard time.

Definitely agree. I still don’t really think this will be much of anything for us here in southeast TX. Not sure why the WPC has us painted for 5-15” of rain. This looks like a Louisiana system.

[Kingwood36]

18z GFS doesn’t even look to develop this. Maybe a depression at most? And most of the rain stays out over the Gulf and southern LA.

GFS has really been having a hard time.

Definitely agree. I still don’t really think this will be much of anything for us here in southeast TX. Not sure why the WPC has us painted for 5-15” of rain. This looks like a Louisiana system.

It hasn't even developed yet so you cant say this looks like a louisiana system

[stormlover]

18z GFS doesn’t even look to develop this. Maybe a depression at most? And most of the rain stays out over the Gulf and southern LA.

Euro has 80-100 mph gust in Beaumont tx

[Cpv17]

GFS has really been having a hard time.

Definitely agree. I still don’t really think this will be much of anything for us here in southeast TX. Not sure why the WPC has us painted for 5-15” of rain. This looks like a Louisiana system.

It hasn't even developed yet so you cant say this looks like a louisiana system

I want to see the ensembles. They mean so much more than op runs. I wish someone could post a pic of them, but from what I’m seeing right now from all the op runs of each model is that the consensus is into SW LA and that means crickets for us.

[unome]

nice unexpected downpour - rain gages all around us show 0"

https://radar.weather.gov/lite/NCR/HGX_loop.gif

[Katdaddy]

An except from this afternoon’s Houston-Galveston AFD state it well at this point:

So what should we do? If you are not prepared, this is a good time to take stock of your emergency supplies and be ready. If you live along the coast, check your evacuation plans. Most of all check official sources for forecast updates to the potential development of a tropical cyclone. The next 24 to 48 hours will determine a lot about what we know and do not know going forward.

[stormlover]

Ensembles euro show below Galveston

[Cpv17]

Ensembles euro show below Galveston

Thank you. People get all caught up over op runs and think it’s gospel, but amateurs don’t realize how much more important ensembles are.

[Scott747]

Ensembles euro show below Galveston

That's not true. The bulk of the members are showing around the tx/la border. Only a handful are Galveston and further s, with the furthest s being corpus.

The trend today is still further w but hasn't been as pronounced as the earlier two days.

[stormlover]

Nhc forecast all over euro

[Cpv17]

Ensembles euro show below Galveston

That's not true. The bulk of the members are showing around the tx/la border. Only a handful are Galveston and further s, with the furthest s being corpus.

The trend today is still further w but hasn't been as pronounced as the earlier two days.

Big difference between south of Galveston and the TX/LA border. Biggest question I’d like to know is why the WPC is so bullish on rainfall for all of southeast Texas when we look to be on the dry side of the storm.

[jasons2k]

I also had a much-needed shower today. It still thundering too. It's a beautiful glowing orange outside.

Regarding 92LL, I'm quietly getting prepared up here. Not taking any chances. The Gulf has a history of unpredictable and rapidly intensifying storms.

[srainhoutx]

Ensembles euro show below Galveston

That's not true. The bulk of the members are showing around the tx/la border. Only a handful are Galveston and further s, with the furthest s being corpus.

The trend today is still further w but hasn't been as pronounced as the earlier two days.

Big difference between south of Galveston and the TX/LA border. Biggest question I’d like to know is why the WPC is so bullish on rainfall for all of southeast Texas when we look to be on the dry side of the storm.

Here you go...

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
419 PM EDT Mon Jul 08 2019

Valid 12Z Thu Jul 11 2019 - 12Z Mon Jul 15 2019

...Overview and Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Models consensus remains relatively poor as to the eventual
evolution of low pressure expected across the Gulf of Mexico later
this week into the weekend. In general, a westward trend was noted
in the guidance from overnight, especially among the GFS/ECMWF and
their respective ensembles, while the 00Z UKMET/CMC maintained
solutions that keep the area of low pressure farther to the east.
After assessing the trends and the current ensemble/model spread,
a solutions close to the 00Z ECMWF was preferred at this time,
subject to adjustment this afternoon pending new model guidance
and collaboration with NHC. Fortunately, models showed slightly
above average agreement at the larger scales elsewhere, with the
primary storm track focused within a relatively active jet across
the CONUS northern tier. Timing/amplitude differences were minor
with a series of upper shortwaves crossing the Midwest/Great
Lakes/Northeast through the period. Differences grow through time,
and shortwave energy expected to reach the Pacific Northwest
Sun-Mon, then moving east from there showed somewhat larger
differences among the guidance. Given these considerations, a
multi-model deterministic blend was used initially during days
3-4, with a shift toward a three-way blend of the ECMWF and
ECENS/GEFS ensemble means during days 5-7.

Ryan

...Weather Highlights/Threats...

The heavy rainfall threat continues for some areas along and
inland from the Gulf Coast, with specifics depending on the very
uncertain path of the system expected to track over a portion of
the northern Gulf. Given the diverse guidance spread thus far, it
is important to note that a meaningful potential exists over a
greater area than represented on any single deterministic model or
manual forecast. Latest trends are suggesting there may be a
westward shift in highest rainfall potential but further runs will
be needed for confirmation. Elsewhere, low pressure and trailing
front will bring showers/thunderstorms to the Northeast and
Mid-Atlantic late this week with best dynamics aloft supporting
highest rainfall totals over parts of the Northeast. Some
showers/storms may also accompany another frontal system tracking
from the northern Plains into the East late week through the
weekend. The trailing part of the front may stall over the
northern Plains to provide a longer-term rainfall focus.
Locations along and just inland from the Pacific Northwest coast
may see one or more periods of scattered light rainfall depending
on strength of shortwaves ejecting from the mean trough aloft over
the eastern Pacific. Portions of the Rockies may see scattered
diurnal convection on one or more days.

Most temperature anomalies should be in the single digits through
the period. Aided by warm morning lows in particular, areas from
the interior West through the northern Plains should be
consistently above normal. Frontal progression will provide some
temperature variability over the northeastern quadrant of the
lower 48. Clouds/rainfall may keep high temperatures a little
below normal over some areas along and inland from the Gulf Coast,
depending on the track of the possible Gulf system.

Rausch

[Scott747]

Ensembles euro show below Galveston

That's not true. The bulk of the members are showing around the tx/la border. Only a handful are Galveston and further s, with the furthest s being corpus.

The trend today is still further w but hasn't been as pronounced as the earlier two days.

Big difference between south of Galveston and the TX/LA border. Biggest question I’d like to know is why the WPC is so bullish on rainfall for all of southeast Texas when we look to be on the dry side of the storm.

There isn't that much of a difference when you take account for how much it has trended to the w. If the ensembles keep doing so on the 0z run then it won't take much for this to go from a sw la and tx/la border track to a middle and upper tx coast track with little further e on the spread in regards to landfall.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Nice downpour for the last 15 minutes here with more to come! Very surprised

[Cpv17]

Nice downpour for the last 15 minutes here with more to come! Very surprised

I’m about an hour and 45 min ssw of you and the anvil from this storm is awesome to see. Quite a bit of lightning in it.

[davidiowx]

Nice downpour for the last 15 minutes here with more to come! Very surprised

I’m about an hour and 45 min ssw of you and the anvil from this storm is awesome to see. Quite a bit of lightning in it.

Yep see the same here in Richmond. My lightning detector went off about 20 or so times. Cooled us down just a tad....

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Nice downpour for the last 15 minutes here with more to come! Very surprised

I’m about an hour and 45 min ssw of you and the anvil from this storm is awesome to see. Quite a bit of lightning in it.

It was very welcomed. It was 85 at 10 pm last night with no breeze on the porch and I was sweating horribly. Tonight it’s 78 with a breeze and rain.

[BlueJay]

78 in July. Nice.