July 2019: Warming Trend/Slight Chances For Rain

[Scott747]

Too early to tell at all where its gonna head. I think we will have a much better read on this thing come Wednesday.

By Wednesday there will likely be watches and warnings up.... Maybe not quite as far w as our immediate area but if it follows the trend showing in the models it won't be much longer after that.

[tireman4]

Still days away from anything resembling..well whatever this turns out to be...I will channel my inner Wxman 57 and say..stay tuned...

[Cpv17]

I do not like the track of the 2 latest Euro runs. I prefer the GFS with a landfall around Matagorda Bay. The Euro would leave most of Texas extremely hot and dry.

[Rip76]

I do not like the track of the 2 latest Euro runs. I prefer the GFS with a landfall around Matagorda Bay. The Euro would leave most of Texas extremely hot and dry.

Yep all moisture to the East.

[Texaspirate11]

Euro has Tx/La which leaves us high and dry in houston

[srainhoutx]

The Weather Prediction Center is getting a bit more bullish with our rainfall chances as well as the idea of a NW Gulf Coast threat from whatever develops...

[davidiowx]

Sheesh,, yes they are srain..

[Rip76]

Pretty high rates there.

[Texaspirate11]

Update: 12z UKMET has a Category 1 hurricane or stronger tropical storm at Morgan City LA on Saturday evening. Operational ECMWF shows a possible Barry west of Beaumont TX Saturday night. GFS ensemble mean suggests tropical depression Galveston Bay. GGEM members are not showing an organization of this threat.

[tireman4]

Deep Thunder Model....again..educational purposes only.

[TexasBreeze]

Houston could end up on the south side of the system which would still bring in inflow bands that would train and add up. (Euro model) or even the dirty side with lots of moisture days after (GFS model).

[Texaspirate11]

Beaumont does NOT need this....

[davidiowx]

Deep Thunder Model....again..educational purposes only.

Wow.. that is pretty intense. I can't imagine that happens, but you can't rule anything out. That is why everyone should be prepared at all times living anywhere a hurricane can threaten!

[tireman4]

EPS Esembles

[snowman65]

CAT 2 for Orange, TX to get the season kicked off right??
hmmm.. coming in from Tennessee...lol...geez....

[srainhoutx]

CAT 2 for Orange, TX to get the season kicked off right??
hmmm.. coming in from Tennessee...lol...geez....

Well, back in August of 1983 we watched a thunderstorm complex roll South out of Tennessee/Mississippi and Alabama into Mobile Bay and on out into the Gulf. It happens...

[TexasBreeze]

Quite an informative afternoon afd today....

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
343 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019 .

SHORT TERM [This Afternoon Through Tomorrow Night]... ...Heat Advisory in Effect through this Evening... A heat advisory is currently in effect for counties along and south of I-10 this afternoon and will continue through 8 PM this evening. Observations have shown heat index values between 106 to 111 degs F across these areas. Please continue to practice heat safety precautions through this evening, such as staying hydrated, wearing sunscreen if outdoors, and limiting outdoor activities during peak heating. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. In terms of convection, radar imagery this afternoon is continuing to show some pop up showers mainly from Austin to Montgomery to Polk counties and southward, with some isolated thunderstorms as well. Development should continue and potentially become more widespread over the next few hours before dissipating shortly after sunset tonight. Any strong storms that do develop could have the potential to produce gusty winds. Patchy fog and low level clouds look to build back mostly north of a line from Columbus to Colorado tonight and into the early morning hours. More hot and humid weather is on tap for tomorrow, with forecast max heat index values again expected to rise to near heat advisory criteria, and another heat advisory may need to be issued. Short term guidance is showing less in terms of convection tomorrow, with higher convective temperatures possible across the region. Hathaway && .

Long Term/Tropical [Wednesday through Sunday]... Wednesday through Friday the forecast is pretty simple. Hot. Upper level ridging is expected to develop over the 4 Corners/Southern Rockies area through the end of the week. Hopefully this will allow for time for any preparedness activities due to the potential of a tropical cyclone. There is lies the problem - potential. Realize that a tropical cyclone HAS NOT FORMED yet in the Gulf of Mexico. This really limits what we know and do not know. With regards to the potential tropical cyclone formation the northern Gulf during the Wednesday through Friday time frame, here`s what we think we know. - There are 2 to may be 3 vorticity centers over AL/GA on current water vapor imagery that models are keying in on for tropical cyclone formation once they move S into the NE Gulf of Mexico. - There is a broad upper low over the W Gulf on water vapor imagery which models reflect on their 250mb analysis. - Currently Upper level ridging is weak over S TX. - Model guidance between GFS/GEFS/ECMWF/ECMWF ENS have some good agreement through Wed/Thur but then some differences in the upper level pattern as well as evolution of any tropical cyclone fformation. Consensus among forecasters at NHC/WPC/WFOs it to lean more on the ECMWF solutions given its consistency. - Given this thinking, forecast leans more this direction so we increased rain chances and QPF. Other impacts could be as early as Friday given this thinking. Impacts could reach peak Saturday night into Sunday and then decrease going into early next week. - Upper level winds are favorable for tropical cyclone development Wednesday through Friday. - Gulf waters are quite warm and also support development/strengthening of a tropical cyclone. Here are some things that we have low confidence of or quite honestly we do not know. - We do not know which vorticity center will become the focus for tropical cyclone development in the Gulf. We do not know how strong of a vorticity max it will be or just how much convection will surround the midlevel circulation. - Wednesday we do not know how far off the Gulf coast tropical cyclone formation will occur. The consensus is for TC formation farther off the coast in line with the GFS/ECMWF forecasts, but mesoscale processes of where/when convection forms around the vorticity could determine these details. - Forecast track of any potential TC is uncertain. Odds are for a track across the Gulf since the upper level ridge may not be quite as strong. It may also weaken through the weekend which would support a westward track. The track will also depend upon how close to the coast or how far off the coast the potential TC forms. - Synoptic models and tropical cyclone models (spaghetti plots) have a challenging time resolving any type of TC formation since there is nothing to resolve at this time. Realize any kind of model track forecast and intensity will likely change from one model run to the next. This also means that once a TC does form, our confidence in the track/intensity and therefore impacts increases. - Upper level low now over the W Gulf may help steer any potential TC towards the TX Coast by the end of the week especially if the upper level ridge ends up being weaker than models suggest. - Any type of intensity forecast is uncertain. Given the pattern and Gulf waters, intensification will be supported. But again this could be limited by where and how the potential TC develops. If closer to the coast, then the system could not have enough time to develop. - Potential impacts from this system look to be wide ranging due to the uncertainty in track/intensity and above listed unknowns. Tomorrow and Wednesday should give time for the forecast to develop and more data to analyze. Hurricane Recon is scheduled for Wednesday when development may start. This data will also be helpful for the modeling of this potential system. So the too long did not read version is that we are confident in some type of tropical cyclone formation beyond Wednesday but have low confidence in its track/intensity. So what should we do? If you are not prepared, this is a good time to take stock of your emergency supplies and be ready. If you live along the coast, check your evacuation plans. Most of all check official sources for forecast updates to the potential development of a tropical cyclone. The next 24 to 48 hours will determine a lot about what we know and do not know going forward. Overpeck

[srainhoutx]

Still a lot of uncertainty, but the WPC Updated 7 Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast valid through next Monday afternoon suggests we could see heavy rainfall...

[Andrew]

Looking at SST for the gulf, Maximum Potential Hurricane Intensity is pretty much infinite across the Northern Gulf. Temperatures, in general, are cooking and I don't really see much restrictions for this system there. With that said, the two things going against this system are time in the Gulf and some upper-level shear. The GFS is more aggressive with shear and has the system moving west a little quicker than the ECMWF, which is why you see a weaker system. The GFS doesn't show favorable conditions and good upper-level ventilation until closer to landfall. As for the track, it's too early to say officially, but I do think from an early view Texas or Louisiana will be the likely landfall location. The trough over the Northeast U.S. is not expected to be as strong or linger as long as initially anticipated. Ridging over the SE U.S. will build in quickly behind the system and really push this system west. It really depends on how far ridging can extend westward. As with many cases, a stronger storm will feel out that edge faster than a weaker system and turn north sooner. Either way, it's going to be a busy couple of days ahead.

[Cpv17]

18z GFS doesn’t even look to develop this. Maybe a depression at most? And most of the rain stays out over the Gulf and southern LA.