June 2019: Showers/Storms Increasing To End June

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
BlueJay
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One of my neighbor's twin queen palm trees appears to have been struck by lightning during that mini-hurricane type weather we had this afternoon. The palm is split in two. It was taller than their 2 story house. Insurance man has already been out and the chain saw is at work now. We did not receive a warning about this fluke severe weather activity.

This cooler rainy pattern reminds me of early fall.
sau27
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BlueJay wrote: Thu Jun 27, 2019 3:23 pm One of my neighbor's twin queen palm trees appears to have been struck by lightning during that mini-hurricane type weather we had this afternoon. The palm is split in two. It was taller than their 2 story house. Insurance man has already been out and the chain saw is at work now. We did not receive a warning about this fluke severe weather activity.

This cooler rainy pattern reminds me of early fall.
I wouldn't call it "severe". Tropical afternoon thunderstorms can often have a healthy amount of lightning.
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Texaspirate11
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BlueJay wrote: Thu Jun 27, 2019 3:23 pm One of my neighbor's twin queen palm trees appears to have been struck by lightning during that mini-hurricane type weather we had this afternoon. The palm is split in two. It was taller than their 2 story house. Insurance man has already been out and the chain saw is at work now. We did not receive a warning about this fluke severe weather activity.

This cooler rainy pattern reminds me of early fall.
Your area was under a special weather advisory - intense lightening/hail/gusty winds - yikes - seems like it really played out
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srainhoutx
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It looks like we may get a bit of a reprieve from scattered thunderstorms today, but our weekend rain chances increase as an upper air disturbance currently near Little Rock meanders SSW and an inverted trough draped across the Northern and Central Gulf transitions West into our Region tomorrow afternoon/evening. Sunday could be the wettest day of the weekend. On to July!
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Cpv17
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I’m just wondering if anyone else has noticed this (I’m sure y’all have), but to me it seems like models have an east biased with precipitation which causes them to put too much qpf to points east of SETX and not enough over us.
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tireman4
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FXUS64 KHGX 280935
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
435 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019

.SHORT TERM [Today Through Sunday Night]...
Stratus & patchy fog starting to fill in across parts of the area
early this morning. Expect this to lift during the mid morning
hours. Weak surface high pres is expected to be over the area
today, but besides lower PW values, no substantial atmos differences
are noted from yesterday. Think we`ll probably see some sct
shra/tstms develop with daytime heating and seabreeze. (May be
worth keeping an eye out for outflows drifting in from east Tx
storms late in the day as well). Overall coverage should diminish
in the mid evening hours as we lose heating.

Inverted trof stretching across the cntl Gulf states should make
its way westward over the weekend...with the axis generally
across the upper Tx coast by late Saturday then eventually toward
cntl Tx and the the Big Bend area as we head into Sunday night.
Sct precip can be expected as this feature approaches & passes,
though individual models aren`t in the best agreement in regards
to timing/location. More favorable periods should be during the
day when instability is generally higher, but can`t really exclude
any time period. 47

.LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]...
Trough/weakness continues to retrograde and lingers across west
Tx for a good part of the week. Locally, onshore flow becomes
better established and a surge of deep Gulf moisture makes its way
inland late Monday night and Tuesday bringing with it fairly good
chances of rain into midweek. Deterministic models show gradually
decreasing moisture levels and precip coverage Thursday (July 4th)
into the following weekend. 47

&&

.AVIATION [06Z TAF Issuance]...
We`ll be starting the day with a mix of lower CIGS/VIS across SE TX
this morning. High clouds moving in from the north have been making
it hard for fog development across our northern counties so far but
CIGS have fallen. Closer to the coast, patchy fog is still expected
through mid morning or so. Cannot rule out the possibility of wide-
ly scattered/isolated activity later this afternoon, so will likely
keep with the mention of VCSH/VCTS. Will be looking for mostly MVFR
conditions once again tonight/early Sat morning. 41

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure moving over the region will bring mainly quiet
weather with light onshore flow expected today. A retrograding
upper level trough combined with daytime heating may bring
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms during the
afternoon and evening hours through the weekend. Coverage may
increase towards the end of the weekend and into the start of the
work week. Onshore flow increases next week and may approached
SCEC criteria by midweek as the area gets sandwiched between high
pressure to the east over the Gulf of Mexico and a surface low
located to the west. Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 92 73 88 71 87 / 20 20 30 30 30
Houston (IAH) 93 72 88 71 90 / 40 30 30 30 40
Galveston (GLS) 91 80 88 79 88 / 20 30 20 30 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 281538
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1038 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Areas of patchy to dense fog started to dissipate after sunrise
with ceilings gradually lifting. Thus, the Dense Fog Advisory
was allowed to expire at 9 AM CDT this morning. Little to no fog
was reported on the surface observations as of 10 AM CDT.

Based on the current sounding data analysis, environmental
conditions appear favorable for the development of showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon, particularly over the central and
southern regions of the forecast area. Increased the POPs/WX for
these areas throughout the afternoon hours. The rest of the
forecast has been updated to account for the current observation
trend but no major changes were made to the previous forecast.

24
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Rip76
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There’s a few starting to fire up now.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 281743
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1243 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions currently at all TAF sites. Winds will continue
light and variable. Environmental conditions are favorable for
SHRA/TSRA development this afternoon, particularly along the
central and southern portions of the CWA. VCTS is in place for
KIAH, KHOU, KSGR, and KCXO through this evening. Some of this
activity could produce, gusty winds, frequent lightning and heavy
rainfall. Tranquil weather conditions expected tonight with the
chance of patchy to dense fog developing overnight into early
morning hours, particularly west of I-45. This may result in
periods of MVFR/IFR vis/cigs from around 10-14Z. Most of the fog,
if not all, should dissipate shortly after sunrise. VFR conditions
with light and variable winds expected Saturday morning. 24

&&
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tireman4
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NWS Houston Update
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unome
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brief showers here again today - this is like the summers I remember in earlier years when we would get frequent downpours, though not constant rain - 4"-5" over the last week for us - on the bright side, that Houston humidity keeps you looking young !

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/N0R/HGX_loop.gif
https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/NCR/HGX_loop.gif
http://map.blitzortung.org/#7.67/29.77/-95.481
https://www.harriscountyfws.org/
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Katdaddy
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Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
515 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019

TXC201-282315-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0097.190628T2215Z-190628T2315Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Harris TX-
515 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flood Advisory for...
Central Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 615 PM CDT.

* At 514 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
thunderstorms. This will cause minor flooding in the advisory
area. Rain rates of one inch per hour are possible with this storm.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
West University Place, Jersey Village, Hunters Creek Village, Piney
Point Village, Midtown Houston, Downtown Houston, Northside /
Northline, Greenway / Upper Kirby Area, Spring Branch North, Second
Ward, Greater Greenspoint, Greater Heights, Neartown / Montrose,
Greater Eastwood, Near Northside Houston, Greater Fifth Ward,
Aldine, Memorial Park, Greater Third Ward and Fourth Ward.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as
well as other drainage areas and low lying spots.
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Katdaddy
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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
518 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Southwestern Montgomery County in southeastern Texas...
Northeastern Waller County in southeastern Texas...
North central Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 600 PM CDT.

* At 518 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Hooks
Airport, or near Tomball, moving northwest at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected.

* Locations impacted include...
Conroe, Tomball, Jersey Village, Pinehurst, The Woodlands, Greater
Greenspoint, Spring, Aldine, northwestern Northside / Northline,
Oak Ridge North, Panorama Village, Shenandoah, Magnolia,
Stagecoach, The Woodlands Pavillion, Hooks Airport, Chateau Woods,
Splashtown, Willowbrook and Hidden Valley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.
unome
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I would hate to be driving through it, but pretty on satellite

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Cpv17
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The rain chances are fairly high for the next 5 days and the latest qpf forecast from the WPC has all the rain along the coast and offshore. I don’t think that’s going to verify. I’d go with the Euro right now. It’s looking pretty close to what I believe will happen. This new FV3-GFS is lost.
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srainhoutx
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The compact upper air disturbance that was near Little Rock yesterday morning continued to move SW and is located near Austin this morning. It should continue to move SW and shear out today. Showers and thunderstorms look likely today with some high rainfall rates and the potential for some localized flood issues, mainly for street and small streams where the heaviest storms do fall. The inverted trough axis is located back across Central Louisiana and the Northern Gulf Coast. That feature should slowly migrate West today into tomorrow. The SPC has outlined a Marginal Risk for severe storms today and the WPC has a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall today for portions of our Region. The afternoon looks stormy for most if you have outdoor plans.

The Tropical Atlantic Basin continues to be quiet while the EPAC is churning out Tropical Cyclones almost daily now. Alvin is dissipating while future Barbara (94E) is organizing and may make the long run West toward Hawaii.
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06292019 SPC Day 1 day1otlk_1200.gif
06292019 Day ER 94ewbg.gif
06292019 EPAC TWO two_pac_5d0.png
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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snowman65
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every time I look at the radar we are the only area that's ever raining...always the same blob in the same place. all the time. why? why is that? are we in the midst of some major permanent global climate change they aren't telling us about? big cover up?
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Katdaddy
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Getting our entire AC system replaced today but hopefully the short range models are correct and the heavy thunderstorms and rain holds off until 4PM across NW Galveston County.

Another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms will occur across SE TX today. The SPC has a marginal risk area of severe thunderstorms across all of SE TX. A mid level disturbance over SW AR and NW LA will move SW through SE TX this afternoon resulting in thunderstorm development during the daytime heating.

The Houston-Galveston NWS has some concern near the coast and especially the Galveston Bay Area with sea breeze thunderstorms colliding with the outflow and associated thunderstorms moving into the coastal areas from the NE. This would increase the intensity of the thunderstorms along with very heavy localized rains. Short range models are showing localized areas of 2-4” rains.
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snowman65
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what's with the tropical system heading for us next Tues-Thursday? has it been mentioned in here?
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Texaspirate11
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It's a tropical wave
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