June 2019: Showers/Storms Increasing To End June

[srainhoutx]

Nearing 5 inches in Western Ft Bend County...and counting...

[unome]

getting into the 12" colors on radar estimated storm-total loop https://radar.weather.gov/lite/NTP/HGX_loop.gif

not seeing any storm reports so far though

[don]

The rain is really starting to pick up here near downtown,im concern that training may be starting to set up across metro Houston.

[srainhoutx]

Rainfall rates beginning to increase across Metro Houston. A convergence zone appears to be setup SSW to NNE out ahead of a weak surface low nearing Victoria. Bands of heavy rain are filling in East of that convergence zone moving NNE.

[srainhoutx]

Over 2 inches across portions of Western Harris County

[srainhoutx]

Jeff reports LCRA gage network shows 9.25 inches in Needville and 8.50 inches in El Campo

[snowman65]

has a little Harvey feel, doesn't it? hmmm

[srainhoutx]

Reports of water at door of numerous homes in Kendleton

[srainhoutx]

Just a quick update regarding tomorrow. The SPC has outlined a Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms tomorrow mainly associated with an upper level disturbance moving in from Northern Mexico...

[srainhoutx]

9:00 AM Update from Jeff:

Moderate to at times heavy rainfall continues over much of Harris County.

Storm totals of 1.0-3.30 inches have been recorded mainly along and S/E of US 59.

A band of excessive rainfall that has produce 9.25 inches in the last 6 hours at an LCRA gage on the Colorado River at Lane City and 7-8 inches over western Fort Bend County and eastern Wharton County is slowly moving toward the east. Thus far this band has been unable to move much toward the east and has been anchored near the San Bernard River for the last few hours. Recent radar trends have shown a slightly weakening of this band. With the trough axis remaining to the west of Harris County, additional rainfall…some heavy will continue to move south to north across the county.

Thus far rainfall rates have been manageable in Harris County with only a few minor street flooding issues, but as experienced just to our west the capability of this air mass to produce excessive rainfall in a short period of time is there. Grounds are also becoming increasingly saturated and run-off will be increasing.

[redneckweather]

Dry slotted here in central Montgomery County.

[srainhoutx]

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0369
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1031 AM EDT Wed Jun 05 2019

Areas affected...Upper Texas Coast and Southwest Louisiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 051430Z - 052030Z

Summary...Increasing coverage of thunderstorms with torrential
rainfall will move onshore the Upper Texas Coast and into
Louisiana through this afternoon. Hourly rain rates of 2-3"/hr may
train across portions of the region with more than 5" of rainfall
possible. This will likely lead to flash flooding, especially
within any urban areas

Discussion...Exceptional pool of tropical moisture with PWAT
values over 2.5" is analyzed by latest RAP guidance and the
blended TPW product. Recent 12Z U/A soundings from CRP and LCH
show observed PWATs of 2.4-2.6", which are both well above the
90th percentile as well as near or above the maximums observed for
the date. Recent rain rates from KHGX WSR-88D have exceeded
2.5"/hr, and a few local mesonet sites have reported 2-3" or more
within the last hour. These rates are believable based off low CC
and ZDR values from the dual-pol data from KHGX in a tropical
environment characterized by deep warm cloud depths of 14-16 kft
driving efficient warm rain collision-coalescence processes.

A shortwave evident on WV imagery is approaching from the
southwest, accompanied by a jet streak lifting out of Mexico. At
the same time, a weak jet streak analyzed by recent RAP guidance
is ejecting slowly eastward from Tennessee. These synoptic
features are driving deep layer ascent, which is being enhanced by
a wave of low pressure near the TX coast, and low-level
convergence along the land-sea friction boundary. Increasing
instability and persistent southerly flow east of the low pressure
will continually reinvigorate convection as it lifts northward
onto the Texas coast and into southwest Louisiana. Cloud tops on
GOES-16 IR imagery continue to cool dramatically, suggesting
intensifying convection and increasing confidence in recent HRRR
runs which depict persistent and repeated rounds of heavy rainfall
moving into the discussion area through the afternoon, with only
slow eastward translation into Louisiana.

Despite antecedent rainfall which has been just 10-50% of normal
across the area, excessive rain rates should continue to reach or
exceed 2"/hr as noted by recent HREF neighborhood probabilities
which will exceed FFG, especially in urban areas or in north-south
training bands. Additionally, latest NWM 40cm soil moisture
analysis shows much of the area is 85-95% saturated, suggesting
rainfall will almost immediately transition into runoff. Rainfall
amounts will generally be 2-4", but will likely exceed 5" in some
places, and flash flooding is likely.


Weiss

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...LCH...SHV...

[srainhoutx]

Band of heavy rainfall with rates reported at 5 to 10 inches over the past 3 hours is slowly pushing East into Ft Bend and Brazoria Counties. Rainfall rates of 2 inch per hour plus can be expected. Also radar estimates are under doing what gages actually report. Best to follow gage reports versus radar estimated rainfall.

[srainhoutx]

Flash Flood Warning coming for Ft Bend and parts of Brazoria Counties

[srainhoutx]

Jeff reports 11.58 inches the past 6 hours at LCRA at Midfield

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
949 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2019

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
WHARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN AUSTIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
WESTERN BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL WALLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
MATAGORDA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1245 PM CDT.

* AT 948 AM CDT, EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED FLASH FLOODING IN AND
AROUND THE WHARTON AREA. NUMEROUS WATER RESCUES FROM VEHICLES ARE
OCCURING AND A FEW HOMES ARE BEGINNING TO TAKE ON WATER. 8 TO 10
INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING IS ONGOING. EMERGENCY
OFFICIALS ARE URGING PEOPLE TO STAY HOME UNTIL THE FLOOD THREAT
HAS DIMINISHED.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
SOUTHWESTERN PEARLAND, SUGAR LAND, MISSOURI CITY, ROSENBERG,
STAFFORD, BAY CITY, RICHMOND, EL CAMPO, WHARTON, SEALY, PALACIOS,
BROOKSHIRE, WEST COLUMBIA, SWEENY, SOUTH TEXAS NUCLEAR PLANT,
FRESNO, TOWN WEST, PECAN GROVE, FIRST COLONY AND MISSION BEND.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WARNED AREA.

[jasons2k]

I can’t get HGX radar to update on RadarScope. Hasn’t updated since 8:20 but it says it’s online. Strange.

[mcheer23]

I can’t get HGX radar to update on RadarScope. Hasn’t updated since 8:20 but it says it’s online. Strange.

NWS Houston is having trouble with internet connectivity and their phone lines apparently.

[Texashawk]

Seems like it will be manageable - mainly yellows and a few oranges across the region; doesn’t look like any truly heavy rain. Also looks like it’s moving out of FB county as we speak. Beaumont sure looks like it’s going to get the bullseye though!

[txbear]

I can’t get HGX radar to update on RadarScope. Hasn’t updated since 8:20 but it says it’s online. Strange.

I've been using the IAH and Hobby terminal radars as an alternative, although the coverage area is much smaller for obvious reasons.