June 2019: Showers/Storms Increasing To End June

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Post Reply
User avatar
djjordan
Posts: 928
Joined: Fri Feb 05, 2010 7:19 pm
Location: Montgomery, Texas
Contact:

Can't believe we are halfway through 2019 already. June marks the beginning of the Atlantic Hurricane season and as always this forum is on top of everything tropics!!! Summertime heat, humidity, afternoon Showers/T-storms. I have moved out of Sugar Land and up into Montgomery County recently so looking forward to monitoring from a new location.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
BlueJay
Posts: 938
Joined: Tue Mar 04, 2014 10:47 am
Location: Alden Bridge-The Woodlands, Texas
Contact:

Welcome to MOCO dj!
User avatar
Texaspirate11
Posts: 1278
Joined: Tue Dec 31, 2013 12:24 am
Contact:

ON SATURDAY JUNE 8th AT GEORGE R BROWN HALL A from 10-2
EXTREME WEATHER EXPO
Come and learn how to prepare for come what may
Meet our pro mets
Great swag from companies
Free Hot Dogs
Great Panel Discussions
ITS FREE - hope to see you there
I will be at the Mayors Office for People with Disabilities table
Come and see me!
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19611
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

The overnight guidance suggests a potentially active and 'wetter' pattern developing next week as a West Coast upper low meanders East beneath a developing North Central United States Upper Ridge. Such a pattern suggests a chance of nocturnal thunderstorm complexes near N Texas/Oklahoma moving South for several days. The models also indicate some deep tropical moisture may move NW out of the Western Caribbean into the Western Gulf adding fuel for increased rain chances. We will see.
Attachments
05302019 00Z ECMWF 192 ecmwf_z500a_namer_9.png
05302019 06Z FV3 186 fv3p_z500a_namer_32.png
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5360
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

BlueJay wrote: Tue May 28, 2019 10:05 am Welcome to MOCO dj!
Yes! Welcome to the land of trees!!
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19611
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

The first day or two of June look warm and relatively uneventful, but changes are brewing for next week. Our old friend the Central America monsoonal gyre appears to attempt develop an area of disturbed weather in the Bay of Campeche. The first impressive surge of deep tropical moisture from the NW Caribbean Sea is pulled NW in the Western and NW Gulf of Mexico. PW's of near 2.5 inches or higher arrive along the Gulf Coast early next week as a robust upper air disturbance moves in our direction from South California.

The afternoon computer models all hint at increasing rainfall chances and the ECMWF even attempts to spin up a weak low pressure system along the Lower Texas Coast that heads NE as that upper air feature treks across the Southern Plains.
05312019 12Z 48 ecmwf_mslp_uv850_watl_3.png
05312019 12Z 72 ecmwf_mslp_uv850_watl_4.png
05312019 12Z 144 ecmwf_mslp_uv850_scus_7.png
05312019 12Z 168 ecmwf_mslp_uv850_watl_8.png
two_atl_5d0(12).png
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
stormlover
Posts: 439
Joined: Wed Dec 04, 2013 10:21 am
Location: Lumberton TX
Contact:

We now have an invest
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19611
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

INVEST 91L was designated overnight for the SW Gulf area of disturbed weather. the NHC gives it a 50% chance of developing the next 5 days before it interacts with land along the Mexican Gulf Coast. Regardless of any development in the near term, unfavorable wind shear should keep the disturbance in check and increase our rain chances beginning Tuesday down the Coast spreading NE Wednesday into Thursday.
06012019 8 AM  91L two_atl_5d0.png

Code: Select all

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure located over the southern Bay of
Campeche is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  The
low is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward across the
southern Bay of Campeche toward the east coast of Mexico during the
next few days.  If the system remains over water, a tropical
depression could form before it moves inland early next week.
Regardless of development, the disturbance will likely produce heavy
rainfall over portions of southern and southeastern Mexico during
the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Today marks the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season, which
will run until November 30.  Long-term averages for the number of
named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are 12, 6, and 3,
respectively.

The list of names for 2019 is as follows:

Name           Pronunciation    Name            Pronunciation
-------------------------------------------------------------
Andrea         AN-dree-uh       Lorenzo         loh-REN-zoh
Barry          BAIR-ree         Melissa         meh-LIH-suh
Chantal        shahn-TAHL       Nestor          NES-tor
Dorian         DOR-ee-an        Olga            OAL-guh
Erin           AIR-rin          Pablo           PAHB-lo
Fernand        fair-NAHN        Rebekah         reh-BEH-kuh
Gabrielle      ga-bree-ELL      Sebastien       suh-BASH-chuhn
Humberto       oom-BAIR-toh     Tanya           TAHN-yuh
Imelda         ee-MEHL-dah      Van             van
Jerry          JEHR-ee          Wendy           WEN-dee
Karen          KAIR-ren

One named cyclone, Andrea, already formed this year in May.  The
next named storm that forms this season will be Barry.

This product, the Tropical Weather Outlook, briefly describes
significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for
tropical cyclone formation during the next five days.  The issuance
times of this product are 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 AM, and 8 PM EDT.  After the
change to standard time in November, the issuance times are 1 AM, 7
AM, 1 PM, and 7 PM EST.

A Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued to provide
updates, as necessary, in between the regularly scheduled issuances
of the Tropical Weather Outlook.  Special Tropical Weather Outlooks
will be issued under the same WMO and AWIPS headers as the regular
Tropical Weather Outlooks.

A standard package of products, consisting of the tropical cyclone
public advisory, the forecast/advisory, the cyclone discussion, and
a wind speed probability product, is issued every six hours for all
ongoing tropical cyclones.  In addition, a special advisory package
may be issued at any time to advise of significant unexpected
changes or to modify watches or warnings.

The Tropical Cyclone Update is a brief statement to inform of
significant changes in a tropical cyclone or to post or cancel
watches or warnings.  It is used in lieu of or to precede the
issuance of a special advisory package.  Tropical Cyclone Updates,
which can be issued at any time, can be found under WMO header
WTNT61-65 KNHC, and under AWIPS header MIATCUAT1-5.

All National Hurricane Center text and graphical products are
available on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov. You can also
interact with NHC on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/NWSNHC.
Notifications are available via Twitter when select National
Hurricane Center products are issued.  Information about our
Atlantic Twitter feed (@NHC_Atlantic) is available at
https://www.hurricanes.gov/twitter.shtml.

Forecaster Cangialosi
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19611
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

Saturday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

A broad area of low pressure has formed over the Yucatan Peninsula over the last 24-36 hours due to a complex interaction with a pool of deep tropical moisture and a monsoon trough over central America. As the upper level ridge of high pressure over the SE US weakened in the last 24 hours this has allowed a slow northward migration of low pressure which has been mainly over the land areas of central America.

Early morning visible satellite images show a broad low pressure are is entering the eastern Bay of Campeche. Showers and thunderstorms have been fairly disorganized in association with this feature, but upper level winds are currently fairly favorable for some development as the low moves toward the W/WNW into the Bay of Campeche. Additionally, the land curvature of the south/southwest coast of the Bay of Campeche can help tighten these broad circulations.

Most of the global forecast guidance shows some degree of development with the system as it moves toward the eastern Mexican coast over the next 48 hours. The NHC currently indicates a 50% chance of formation over the next 5 days. The forecast becomes much more uncertain early next week as the tropical feature may move just inland over eastern MX or remain very close to the eastern MX coastline and then turn northward as the high pressure ridge over the NW Gulf breaks down ahead of a trough over the SW US. This is reflected in the ECMWF and its ensemble guidance, while other guidance has the weak feature inland over coastal MX.

Regardless of tropical cyclone formation and the eventual movement and outcome of any tropical system over the SW Gulf, the pattern is favorable by the middle of the week to advect a large pool of deep tropical moisture toward the state of TX. Rain chances will greatly increase starting late Tuesday into Wednesday and likely peak on Thursday. Heavy rainfall will be possible especially Wednesday/Thursday. For now will go with increasing tides and seas starting early next week as the long fetch ESE winds over the central and western Gulf will gradually build seas which may peak in the 6-9ft range by the middle to end of next week. Coastal water levels are already elevated and by the middle of the week high tides could be nearing 3.0-3.5 ft. This forecast is likely to change in the coming days as the Gulf system organizes and becomes better defined along with better available guidance.

As with any sort of tropical system in the Gulf it is important to check weather forecasts at least daily for any changes.
Attachments
06012019 8 AM  91L two_atl_5d0.png
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19611
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

Hurricane Hunters have been tasked to investigate the disturbance in the SW Gulf tomorrow...

Code: Select all

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT SAT 01 JUNE 2019
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z JUNE 2019
         TCPOD NUMBER.....19-004

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA (BAY OF CAMPECHE)
       FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 72          FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 73
       A. 02/1900Z                   A. 03/0530Z,1130Z
       B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST         B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
       C. 02/1600Z                   C. 03/0230Z
       D. 19.0N 95.0W                D. 19.5N 95.5W
       E. 02/1830Z TO 02/2330Z       E. 03/0500Z TO 03/1130Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM
       DEVELOPS AND REMAINS A THREAT.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
cperk
Posts: 768
Joined: Sun Aug 19, 2012 12:09 pm
Location: Richmond
Contact:

We need to keep a close eye on 91L and like Jeff mentioned that high is forecasted to weaken in the coming days.
Cromagnum
Posts: 2592
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2011 10:42 pm
Contact:

And here we go, right on day 1
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

jasons wrote: Thu May 30, 2019 3:02 pm
BlueJay wrote: Tue May 28, 2019 10:05 am Welcome to MOCO dj!
Yes! Welcome to the land of trees!!
haha I'm jealous. It takes a Herculean effort just to grow a 12-20 foot tree in College Station!
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

There seems to be the MoJO for a possible tropical wave drifting our way, and out of the gyre, this month.

Hopefully enough shear this hurricane season to avoid another Michael. Next time the target on the Gulf Coast could be more heavily populated.

...and enough steering currents to avoid a Harvey or Florence.
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19611
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

The 2 PM EDT Update from the NHC gives the Bay of Campeche disturbance a 60% chance of developing the next 48 hours. The Weather Prediction Center morning UPDATED surface charts are suggesting a weak low along the East Coast of Mexico moving N and then NE between Day 3 and Day 6. Rainfall probabilities appear to be increasing as well.
Attachments
06012019 15Z Day 3 9jhwbg_conus.gif
06012019 15Z Day 5 9lhwbg_conus.gif
06012019 15Z Day 6 9mhwbg_conus.gif
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Cpv17
Posts: 5234
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

srainhoutx wrote: Sat Jun 01, 2019 1:14 pm The 2 PM EDT Update from the NHC gives the Bay of Campeche disturbance a 60% chance of developing the next 48 hours. The Weather Prediction Center morning UPDATED surface charts are suggesting a weak low along the East Coast of Mexico moving N and then NE between Day 3 and Day 6. Rainfall probabilities appear to be increasing as well.
How would that track give us any rain? We would be west of the center. Seems like it would all get blown into Louisiana?
User avatar
Belmer
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 744
Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2011 7:29 pm
Location: Dallas, TX
Contact:

Cpv17 wrote: Sat Jun 01, 2019 1:19 pm How would that track give us any rain? We would be west of the center. Seems like it would all get blown into Louisiana?
IF 91L doesn't fully move onshore and instead rides up the Mexico coastline into south TX, we'll still be on the 'dirty' side of the system so-to-speak since 91L will be southwest of SETX. This will bring an onslaught of moisture fetched our way as it moves north and then probably NE near the TX/LA border. As the upper level trough out near California begins slowly moving eastward, 91L will begin to feel its effects as shear ahead of the trough should increase from south-north which will really elongate the system making it difficult for it to maintain a tight closed circulation. If 91L does develop into a named storm, I don't expect it to strengthen more than a moderate TS and less likely it will intensify as it nears our coast. I think another thing that may inhibit any strengthening is dry air from Mexico possibly getting entrain into the system. Lots of wildfires in Mexico last week...

Either way, despite it possibly becoming a TS or remaining a weak area of low pressure, if forecast/track remains constant, Wednesday into Thursday could be pretty soggy around here.
Blake
Boomer Sooner
Cpv17
Posts: 5234
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

Belmer wrote: Sat Jun 01, 2019 1:34 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Sat Jun 01, 2019 1:19 pm How would that track give us any rain? We would be west of the center. Seems like it would all get blown into Louisiana?
IF 91L doesn't fully move onshore and instead rides up the Mexico coastline into south TX, we'll still be on the 'dirty' side of the system so-to-speak since 91L will be southwest of SETX. This will bring an onslaught of moisture fetched our way as it moves north and then probably NE near the TX/LA border. As the upper level trough out near California begins slowly moving eastward, 91L will begin to feel its effects as shear ahead of the trough should increase from south-north which will really elongate the system making it difficult for it to maintain a tight closed circulation. If 91L does develop into a named storm, I don't expect it to strengthen more than a moderate TS and less likely it will intensify as it nears our coast. I think another thing that may inhibit any strengthening is dry air from Mexico possibly getting entrain into the system. Lots of wildfires in Mexico last week...

Either way, despite it possibly becoming a TS or remaining a weak area of low pressure, if forecast/track remains constant, Wednesday into Thursday could be pretty soggy around here.
Well neither the GFS or the Euro have much rain across southeast TX. Maybe an inch. Think those totals are going to increase?
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19611
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

The afternoon 7 Day QPF for SE Texas suggests that Bryan/College Station are the "driest". While we know we will NOT see a repeat of 18 years ago when Allison came calling June 4, 2001, rain chances look encouraging. I'll take a quick moving system any day over a stagnant upper air pattern... ;)
Attachments
06012019 20Z 7 Day QPF p168i.gif
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Post Reply
  • Information