MAY 2019: Wednesday Storm Complex/Scattered Showers To End May

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srainhoutx
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Baytown has received over an inch of rain today. Galveston has street flooding ongoing
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srainhoutx
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Saturday 1:00 PM Update from Jeff:

Thunderstorms have developed along the coast and are starting to spread inland.

In the last hour thunderstorms have developed along US 59 in Wharton and Fort Bend Counties and will be spreading into central and southern Harris County over the next hour. Rainfall amounts this morning over SE Harris County from Clear Lake to Baytown have averaged .5-1.0 inches with 1-1.25 inches over Baytown. Storm motions have been faster today than the last few days which is helping to keep short duration totals on the more manageable size, however cell training is a bit more defined today.

Activity will increase over the next few hours as a coastal low approaches from the SW and lift increases. Thunderstorms will be capable of 1-2 inches of rainfall with isolated totals of 3-4 inches. Heaviest rains will likely be found along and SE of US 59, or across SE Harris County, but cannot rule out some heavy rainfall across areas NW of US 59 either.

Main threat will be street flooding along with rises on area watersheds that are already swollen.
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3” so far in Beaumont today so far giving me a total of 8.22” in two days and looks to be a lot more on the way as it’s progressing further inland. Houston looks to get in on the training shortly. Have a feeling we will be dealing with this for the entire day into evening.
Mike
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(IH-10 & College Street)
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srainhoutx
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FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
117 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2019

WHARTON TX-GALVESTON TX-FORT BEND TX-BRAZORIA TX-MATAGORDA TX-
HARRIS TX-
117 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2019

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS FOR...
EAST CENTRAL WHARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
WESTERN GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTH CENTRAL MATAGORDA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 415 PM CDT.

* AT 117 PM CDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN THAT WILL CAUSE
MINOR FLOODING. OVERFLOWING POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL RESULT IN
MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA. UP TO ONE INCH OF RAIN HAS
ALREADY FALLEN.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
PASADENA, PEARLAND, SUGAR LAND, MISSOURI CITY, FRIENDSWOOD, DEER
PARK, ROSENBERG, ALVIN, STAFFORD, SOUTH HOUSTON, BELLAIRE, WEST
UNIVERSITY PLACE, RICHMOND, GALENA PARK, JACINTO CITY, WEBSTER,
WHARTON, MANVEL, HUNTERS CREEK VILLAGE AND BUNKER HILL VILLAGE.
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Cpv17
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The radar is really starting to fill in to the SW of Houston over my area. Looks like I may actually see some rain today after all.
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citizen science - this maps the last 4 hrs of reports - https://mping.ou.edu/display/
Meteorological Phenomena Identification Near the Ground (mPING) is a project to collect weather information from the public through their smart phone or mobile device. The free mPING mobile app was developed through a partnership between NSSL, The University of Oklahoma and the Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies.


you can get the app & read more about it here: https://mping.nssl.noaa.gov/
The mPING app was developed through a partnership between NSSL, the University of Oklahoma and the Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies and was included in Scientific American's list of 8 Apps That Turn Citizens into Scientists.
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Everything below Dallas is filling in.
Cpv17
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Rip76 wrote: Sat May 11, 2019 2:13 pm Everything below Dallas is filling in.
True, but there’s not much out to the west of Victoria so once this blows through that should be it.
Cpv17
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The 12z Euro is pretty wet. Has 2-5” over southeast TX the next 10 days and a pocket of 8-13” over central Texas.
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srainhoutx
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Flash Flood Watch has been cancelled for the entire Houston/Galveston Region. Tomorrow looks much drier for our Mom's!
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djmike
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Looks like thats a wrap! Thanks as usual to all involved in relaying messages and keeping everyone informed and safe. Its been an eventful week! ...now time for a lazy wet dreary gray day nap. Cheers!
Mike
Beaumont, TX
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Katdaddy
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Good news. The Flash Flood Watch for SE TX has been cancelled. Only areas of light rain currently that will be moving away from the Houston-Galveston areas this evening. A few lucky people may see a ray or two of sunlight during the sunset. Mother's Day will be a nice break from the wet weather. A well needed break for all of us after the last several days.
Cpv17
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Looks like 1-3” Tuesday on the SW side of the viewing area:

Image
Cpv17
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18z GFS has me here in Wharton County in the bullseye for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Image
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srainhoutx
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NWS Houston‏Verified account @NWSHouston · 2h2 hours ago

We are glad to be done with that stretch of heavy rainfall & flooding. Here's a look at some 5 day rainfall totals from MRMS data which gives a very close estimate of how much rain fell across the area. 2nd graphic shows a zoomed in look of some of the higher totals. #houwx #txwx

Attachments
05122019 HGX Zoomed 5 Day D6XL6DZXoAABq5s.jpg
05122019 HGX 5 Day Rain Totals D6XL5B6WAAYsAU4.jpg
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Texaspirate11
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INTERESTING DISCO THIS MORNING FROM OUR HGX

DISCUSSION...

Instead of a few highlight points on the forecast, we will offer
some post mortem/lessons re-learned thoughts on this past week`s
heavy rainfall and flood events.

- With a few areas getting more than 10 or even 15 inches of
rainfall in short periods of time like Sugar Land, Kingwood,
Pasadena/Deer Park, large hail with high rain rates on Thursday,
there were no flood related fatalities. Just think about that
for a moment.
- The Tuesday heavy rainfall event in which there was more than 10
inches of rain in Sugar Land and Kingwood reminds us how
challenging rainfall forecasting can be as no numerical guidance
came anywhere close to those kinds of rainfall totals or got the
location right. I will shout out to the 00Z May 7 Tuesday WRF-
ARW that indicated 4-5 inches of rain in the Sugar Land area and
stretching west towards Wharton. It was still off by 6-7 inches
of rain or more. However the WRF-ARW performed poorly the rest
of the time.
- Cell mergers, training of cells and storm scale interactions of
outflow boundaries are vitally important to rain rates.
- Weak to marginal upper level wind flow, especially diffluent
flow, helps maintain updrafts with some movement so that
updrafts are separated just enough from downdrafts but not
enough movement so that cell mergers can still occur to enhance
rain rates.
- None of these events had the support of a strong low level jet
or 850mb winds of more than 35 knots. Odd. Very odd. Now think
about what would have happened if there was.
- Thursday`s significant hail event on top of the flood potential
highlights again how hard it is to message multiple hazards.
- Storms becoming slightly more organized in line on Thursday
night that caused a bowing line segment was a silver lining in
disguise because it forced storms to move instead of develop
over the same areas. Because of this cold pool development and
bowing of the line segment, the heavy rainfall and flooding
impacts were not worse over Houston. This was probably one of
the factors that kept a flash flood emergency from happening.
- Thankful that high rain rates did not materialize Saturday. It
seems that Thursday`s convective event really worked over the
atmosphere and it took quite a bit more time for the atmosphere
to recover. There were still some training of cells Saturday but
not enough instability or moisture return to achieve higher rain
rates. It seems the main moisture axis and moisture transport
shifted east quicker than expected. Ask Louisiana about that.
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Happy mothers day to all the moms out there.
Cpv17
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According to the past few runs of the GFS, there doesn’t seem to be much going on for the next couple weeks. The Euro is completely different though. I wonder what the ensembles are showing?
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Ptarmigan
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Cpv17 wrote: Sun May 12, 2019 12:29 pm According to the past few runs of the GFS, there doesn’t seem to be much going on for the next couple weeks. The Euro is completely different though. I wonder what the ensembles are showing?
The lack of consistency on forecast model and couple of weeks means little. I would wait another week.
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Katdaddy
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A rather cool May morning with temps mostly in the low 60s with a few mid to upper 50s inland. Another nice weather day across SE TX before rain and thunderstorms increase for the mid-week. This morning’s HOU-GAL AFD Summary:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
424 AM CDT Mon May 13 2019

.DISCUSSION...

- Rain chances come back into forecast Tuesday into Wednesday. We might see a strong storm or two SW of Houston.
- Added some 20 PoPs to Thur/Fri given warm air advection pattern and model consistency with some type of QPF developing.
- Weekend looking wet with a Pacific front moving into the area with precipitable water values 1.6 to 1.9 inches. May also have to watch for strong/severe storms.
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