Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
540 AM CDT Fri May 10 2019
.DISCUSSION...
Key updates to the forecast:
- In general areawide 1-2 inches of rain has fallen in last 24
hours with several long swaths of 3-6 inches of rainfall.
- Overnight MCS has stabilized the boundary layer so the threat
for heavy rainfall today is lower. WPC now has slight risk of
excessive rainfall for flooding.
- Overall should have a break or lull in heavy rainfall threat
today due to the atmosphere taking some time to recover and
frontal boundary moving into the region. Still possible to get
another 0.5-1 inches of rain today.
- There is still a threat of heavy rainfall 06Z Saturday to 18Z
Saturday. Possible to get another 1-3 inches isolated 5 inches
during this time which could cause more flooding.
- Flash Flood watch will continue to account for a few storms
today but mainly for heavy rainfall expected tonight into
Saturday morning. At this point rather not drop the watch only
to put it back out for tonight.
.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
Radar shows departing MCS out in the Gulf with storms trailing
back to the west and southwest along the Texas coast. Surface
analysis shows a cold front from basically south TX NE to Columbus
and Huntsville. Water vapor shows slow moving shortwave over the
area that helped initiate this most recent round of thunderstorms
and MCS. Another wave was located in the southern Rockies about to
pull int west Texas. A final wave was located west of the Baja
Peninsula rounding the base of an upper level low over California.
Overall analysis support trends for lower chances of showers and
thunderstorms than previously forecast due to the MCS stabilizing
the boundary layer making it less buoyant. Frontal boundary will
also have a similar effect, but with another jet streak expected
tonight, there could be some elevated storms that develop.
Forecast today keeps some slightly lower PoPs and rainfall amounts
than before to account for what the atmosphere is already doing.
Rainfall amounts today could still get up to an inch but there
looks to be a longer lull in activity than previously thought.
This may give bayous, creeks and rivers a chance to decrease in
levels as well as allow for streets and underpasses to drain.
Since there is still a chance of a few storms and we are expecting
another round of storms that have a higher potential to cause
heavy rainfall tonight into Saturday, we will continue the flash
flood watch as it is.
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday]...
The jet streak of concern for our forecast is now located back
west of the Baja Peninsula. This jet streak should move across
Mexico today and reach south TX and southeast TX Saturday morning.
Synoptic models spread divergence aloft over the area with large
scale ascent. Ageostrophic circulation enhances the low level jet
tonight into Saturday morning with a 20-30kt 850mb LLJ. This
allows for much deeper moisture to return the coastal areas with
precipitable water values increasing to around 1.8 to 2 inches.
GFS has been focusing this higher moisture plume off the coast
into southwest LA. The ECMWF has a more southerly directed LLJ and
develops deep moisture farther inland. I think these scenarios
largely hinge on where the cold front boundary stalls. GFS looks
to push this front closer to the coast where ECMWF is a bit more
inland. This boundary will again serve as a focus for more
convection especially if precipitable water values of 2 inches
materialize inland. ECMWF seems to be more robust with QPF than
the other synoptic models but the WRF NMM/ARW forecasts also have
high QPF focused along the coast and this boundary. HREF also has
a strong signal for rainfall of 1-3 inches mainly south of I-10.
These rainfall totals look on track with other models so will go
with rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with isolated 5 inches as an upper
bound. Given the overall pattern of a jet streak, front, moderate
LLJ and an increase in northward moisture transport, I think the
flash flood watch looks on track.
As for impacts, we are already seeing rapid rises on bayous,
creeks, rivers, some of which in flood along with widespread
street flooding. Expected impacts may be much of the same for
tonight into Saturday. However today, the main message is to stay
out of flooded areas, turn around do not drown, do not go around
barricades and closed roads. Tonight into Saturday could be
another stay put situation as additional rainfall could cause
bayous to go out of banks quickly and low lying
areas/underpasses/streets will flood again.
.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Friday]...
Storm system should move out of the area Sunday with the cold
front off the coast. The upper level low over California finally
starts to move east and reaches west TX on Monday. Synoptic models
have some significant differences in timing of the next rainfall.
GFS shows more rainfall on Monday with precipitable water values
getting up to 1.7 to 2 inches over the area. Meanwhile the
ECMWF/CMC are delayed in the return of rainfall with the bulk of
the activity in these models Tuesday into Wednesday. Forecast
leans more on the ECMWF/CMC with higher rain chances more on
Wednesday than on Monday or Tuesday. We will still keep 30 to 40
PoPs for Monday and Tuesday to cover the uncertainty in timing.
After Wednesday we might catch a break from the rainfall and dry
out a bit for Thursday and Friday.
&&
.MARINE...
Small craft advisory will go through the morning hours with
strong winds due to the thunderstorm activity with even some gusts
to gale force at times. Otherwise winds and seas should decrease
until the next round of thunderstorm activity expected tonight
into Saturday morning. Offshore winds should develop Sunday with
easterly winds on Monday. This will allow for seas to decrease to
start next week.
TX...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday evening for the following
zones: Austin...Brazoria
Islands...Brazos...Burleson...Chambers...Coastal
Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal
Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...Fort
Bend...Galveston Island and Bolivar
Peninsula...Grimes...Houston...Inland Brazoria...Inland
Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland
Matagorda...Madison...Matagorda
Islands...Montgomery...Northern Liberty...Polk...San
Jacinto...Southern
Liberty...Trinity...Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda
Bay...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX
from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Overpeck
NEAR TERM...Overpeck
SHORT TERM...Overpeck
LONG TERM...Overpeck
AVIATION...Luchs
4.64” overnight with rain continuing this morning with radar showing some additional heavy thunderstorms W and SW of Houston. Numerous school districts are closed with ongoing street flooding. Homes in our neighborhood flooded. We look to have a break this afternoon but another round will occur late this evening and tonight. The Flash Flood Watch continues:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
540 AM CDT Fri May 10 2019
.DISCUSSION...
Key updates to the forecast:
- In general areawide 1-2 inches of rain has fallen in last 24
hours with several long swaths of 3-6 inches of rainfall.
- Overnight MCS has stabilized the boundary layer so the threat
for heavy rainfall today is lower. WPC now has slight risk of
excessive rainfall for flooding.
- Overall should have a break or lull in heavy rainfall threat
today due to the atmosphere taking some time to recover and
frontal boundary moving into the region. Still possible to get
another 0.5-1 inches of rain today.
- There is still a threat of heavy rainfall 06Z Saturday to 18Z
Saturday. Possible to get another 1-3 inches isolated 5 inches
during this time which could cause more flooding.
- Flash Flood watch will continue to account for a few storms
today but mainly for heavy rainfall expected tonight into
Saturday morning. At this point rather not drop the watch only
to put it back out for tonight.
Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
600 AM CDT Fri May 10 2019
...PRECIPITATION REPORTS...
Location Amount Time/Date Lat/Lon
...Texas...
...Austin County...
San Felipe 2.57 in 0547 AM 05/10 29.80N/96.12W
Eagle Lake 7ne 2.47 in 0500 AM 05/10 29.66N/96.24W
San Bernard River 1.71 in 0500 AM 05/10 29.66N/96.24W
...Brazoria County...
Alvin 3.25 in 0549 AM 05/10 29.42N/95.24W
Alvin 2.40 in 0543 AM 05/10 29.40N/95.28W
Lake Jackson 2.31 in 0550 AM 05/10 29.04N/95.45W
...Brazos County...
College Station 6.4 ENE 1.87 in 0700 AM 05/09 30.63N/96.21W
College Station 2.0 SSE 1.55 in 0600 AM 05/09 30.57N/96.30W
Bryan 3.8 SSW 1.50 in 0600 AM 05/09 30.62N/96.40W
College Station 1.7 NNW 1.48 in 0715 AM 05/09 30.62N/96.32W
College Station 3.2 SE 1.42 in 0700 AM 05/09 30.56N/96.28W
College Station 2.0 NNE 1.35 in 0700 AM 05/09 30.63N/96.29W
College Station 4.5 SW 1.27 in 0810 AM 05/09 30.56N/96.37W
College Station 0.8 W 1.27 in 0718 AM 05/09 30.60N/96.33W
Bryan 3.5 NNW 1.26 in 0800 AM 05/09 30.71N/96.39W
Bryan 7.1 N 1.12 in 0700 AM 05/09 30.77N/96.37W
...Chambers County...
Lake Charlotte 3.73 in 0500 AM 05/10 29.87N/94.71W
Anahuac 3.06 in 0512 AM 05/10 29.67N/94.44W
...Colorado County...
7 W Eagle Lake 1.48 in 0549 AM 05/10 29.57N/96.45W
Weimar 1.02 in 0546 AM 05/10 29.71N/96.71W
...Fort Bend County...
Katy 4.19 in 0545 AM 05/10 29.71N/95.75W
Missouri City 3.59 in 0541 AM 05/10 29.56N/95.52W
3 NW Richmond 2.94 in 0550 AM 05/10 29.62N/95.81W
Katy 2.89 in 0545 AM 05/10 29.73N/95.79W
Richmond 2.74 in 0531 AM 05/10 29.56N/95.74W
Richmond 2.21 in 0545 AM 05/10 29.69N/95.74W
Richmond 2.12 in 0549 AM 05/10 29.58N/95.76W
Rosenberg 2.06 in 0546 AM 05/10 29.52N/95.81W
Sugar Land 2.05 in 0548 AM 05/10 29.54N/95.67W
Katy 1.74 in 0545 AM 05/10 29.76N/95.80W
First Colony 1.47 in 0549 AM 05/10 29.58N/95.60W
Stafford 1.37 in 0548 AM 05/10 29.61N/95.56W
...Galveston County...
League City 5.18 in 0545 AM 05/10 29.55N/95.06W
Dickinson 1.7 ENE 5.11 in 0100 AM 05/10 29.46N/95.04W
Santa Fe 4.94 in 0550 AM 05/10 29.36N/95.13W
Friendswood 4.82 in 0549 AM 05/10 29.51N/95.20W
A100 120 Clear Creek @ Fm 52 4.76 in 0519 AM 05/10 29.52N/95.18W
League City 3.91 in 0547 AM 05/10 29.50N/95.10W
La Marque 3.82 in 0546 AM 05/10 29.36N/95.00W
1 SSE Texas City 3.72 in 1206 AM 05/10 29.39N/94.95W
...Grimes County...
Iola 10.4 SSW 2.30 in 0800 AM 05/09 30.63N/96.14W
...Harris County...
P100 1610 Greens Bayou @ Nor 6.56 in 0533 AM 05/10 29.78N/95.21W
Webster 5.66 in 0545 AM 05/10 29.54N/95.11W
El Lago 5.55 in 0546 AM 05/10 29.56N/95.05W
Deer Park 5.40 in 0550 AM 05/10 29.69N/95.12W
Humble 5.27 in 0540 AM 05/10 29.93N/95.19W
Friendswood 5.13 in 0546 AM 05/10 29.55N/95.18W
2 NE Houston 4.89 in 0549 AM 05/10 29.79N/95.36W
2 NNW Pasadena 4.84 in 0550 AM 05/10 29.69N/95.17W
1 NNW Hilshire Village 4.75 in 0549 AM 05/10 29.81N/95.49W
Pearland 4.0 ENE 4.69 in 0520 AM 05/10 29.58N/95.21W
Taylor Lake Village 4.50 in 0550 AM 05/10 29.58N/95.06W
2 ESE Pasadena 4.47 in 0550 AM 05/10 29.65N/95.11W
Pasadena 4.16 in 0549 AM 05/10 29.60N/95.11W
3 E Houston 4.16 in 0549 AM 05/10 29.78N/95.32W
2 E West University Place 4.08 in 0550 AM 05/10 29.72N/95.40W
Houston 3.99 in 0545 AM 05/10 29.58N/95.23W
3 W Bunker Hill Village 3.97 in 1246 AM 05/10 29.77N/95.59W
W100 2210 Buffalo Bayou @ Tu 3.96 in 0532 AM 05/10 29.75N/95.29W
Houston 3.93 in 0546 AM 05/10 29.78N/95.37W
1 ESE Houston 3.76 in 0549 AM 05/10 29.76N/95.36W
3 NE South Houston 3.72 in 0550 AM 05/10 29.70N/95.20W
5 N Hilshire Village 3.70 in 0549 AM 05/10 29.86N/95.48W
3 W Jacinto City 3.66 in 0549 AM 05/10 29.77N/95.30W
Houston 3.61 in 0546 AM 05/10 29.55N/95.08W
Baytown 3.57 in 0550 AM 05/10 29.76N/94.96W
6 NNW Brookside Village 3.54 in 0550 AM 05/10 29.67N/95.35W
2 NE South Houston 3.53 in 0550 AM 05/10 29.69N/95.19W
2 NNE Houston 3.45 in 0211 AM 05/10 29.80N/95.37W
4 NNW Houston 3.43 in 0550 AM 05/10 29.82N/95.41W
Crosby 3.38 in 0547 AM 05/10 29.95N/95.11W
Hockley 3.37 in 0548 AM 05/10 30.00N/95.78W
2 NNE South Houston 3.34 in 0550 AM 05/10 29.70N/95.21W
1 E West University Place 3.32 in 0549 AM 05/10 29.71N/95.41W
Houston 3.28 in 0546 AM 05/10 29.57N/95.15W
Hunters Creek Village 3.23 in 0550 AM 05/10 29.77N/95.49W
1 N Cloverleaf 3.21 in 0550 AM 05/10 29.80N/95.17W
Spring 3.18 in 0547 AM 05/10 30.07N/95.41W
Houston 3.18 in 0545 AM 05/10 29.72N/95.41W
4 NNE Fresno 3.09 in 0550 AM 05/10 29.60N/95.42W
Hilshire Village 3.09 in 0549 AM 05/10 29.78N/95.48W
2 ESE Houston 2.92 in 0550 AM 05/10 29.75N/95.36W
4 ESE Houston 2.89 in 0550 AM 05/10 29.74N/95.33W
Houston 2.78 in 0547 AM 05/10 29.79N/95.38W
Houston 2.75 in 0541 AM 05/10 29.75N/95.45W
5 N Fresno 2.74 in 0121 AM 05/10 29.62N/95.45W
6 WSW Spring 2.68 in 0550 AM 05/10 30.03N/95.48W
Spring 2.67 in 0546 AM 05/10 30.05N/95.44W
Spring 2.66 in 0550 AM 05/10 30.13N/95.55W
Houston 2.66 in 0547 AM 05/10 29.80N/95.41W
Katy 2.63 in 0545 AM 05/10 29.84N/95.68W
4 SSE Aldine 2.60 in 0549 AM 05/10 29.85N/95.36W
4 W Spring 2.59 in 0549 AM 05/10 30.06N/95.46W
2 NE Pearland 2.41 in 0550 AM 05/10 29.58N/95.25W
2 S Bellaire 2.40 in 0549 AM 05/10 29.67N/95.45W
Spring 2.39 in 0550 AM 05/10 30.05N/95.49W
Tomball 2.37 in 0549 AM 05/10 30.10N/95.61W
Houston 2.31 in 0548 AM 05/10 29.87N/95.67W
Houston 2.24 in 0545 AM 05/10 29.75N/95.52W
2 SE Hunters Creek Village 2.21 in 0549 AM 05/10 29.75N/95.47W
Bellaire 2.17 in 0549 AM 05/10 29.70N/95.47W
Gulf Breeze 2.11 in 0550 AM 05/10 30.12N/95.54W
1 SSE Southside Place 1.89 in 0550 AM 05/10 29.69N/95.43W
Houston 1.89 in 0548 AM 05/10 29.77N/95.51W
1 NNW Houston 1.79 in 0550 AM 05/10 29.79N/95.40W
Southside Place 1.79 in 0550 AM 05/10 29.70N/95.44W
2 NE Meadows 1.79 in 0550 AM 05/10 29.68N/95.57W
1 SE Hunters Creek Village 1.78 in 0550 AM 05/10 29.75N/95.48W
2 SE Hunters Creek Village 1.71 in 0550 AM 05/10 29.75N/95.47W
Tomball 3.7 ENE 1.65 in 0700 AM 05/09 30.11N/95.56W
Katy 1.0 NNE 1.56 in 0530 AM 05/10 29.81N/95.82W
1 N Bellaire 1.43 in 0550 AM 05/10 29.72N/95.46W
Houston 1.40 in 0550 AM 05/10 29.91N/95.66W
Cypress 1.32 in 0547 AM 05/10 29.95N/95.71W
Tomball 1.29 in 0549 AM 05/10 30.02N/95.61W
P100 1665 Greens Bayou @ Bam 1.28 in 0452 AM 05/10 29.95N/95.50W
3 NE Town West 1.26 in 0550 AM 05/10 29.71N/95.60W
T101 2020 Mason Creek @ Prin 1.23 in 0522 AM 05/10 29.77N/95.73W
3 NE Jersey Village 1.19 in 0550 AM 05/10 29.93N/95.53W
2 WNW Spring 1.14 in 0549 AM 05/10 30.08N/95.42W
E100 550 White Oak Bayou @ L 1.08 in 0521 AM 05/10 29.89N/95.56W
P100 1600 Greens Bayou @ Mou 1.08 in 0504 AM 05/10 29.89N/95.24W
Cypress 1.05 in 0547 AM 05/10 29.99N/95.64W
P100 1670 Greens Bayou @ Cut 1.04 in 0514 AM 05/10 29.95N/95.52W
L100 1230 Little Cypress Cre 1.00 in 0539 AM 05/10 30.03N/95.80W
Tomball 2.7 ENE 1.00 in 0600 AM 05/09 30.11N/95.57W
...Houston County...
Site 1 3.07 in 0700 AM 05/09 31.30N/95.45W
Crockett 1.8 NNE 2.25 in 0700 AM 05/09 31.34N/95.45W
Crockett 10.5 SE 1.96 in 0800 AM 05/09 31.22N/95.32W
...Jackson County...
Francitas 2.06 in 0546 AM 05/10 28.86N/96.34W
Ganado 2.06 in 0545 AM 05/10 29.04N/96.51W
Palacios 1.78 in 0545 AM 05/10 28.73N/96.42W
La Ward 1.68 in 0546 AM 05/10 28.84N/96.46W
Lnra Hq Precip 1.65 in 0539 AM 05/10 28.90N/96.59W
Lolita 1.26 in 0545 AM 05/10 28.79N/96.55W
Morales Precip 1.06 in 1233 AM 05/10 29.14N/96.75W
Fm616 Bridge Precip 1.06 in 1224 AM 05/10 28.83N/96.58W
...Liberty County...
1 NNW Liberty 3.45 in 0549 AM 05/10 30.06N/94.80W
Dayton 3.12 in 0522 AM 05/10 30.11N/94.93W
...Matagorda County...
Sargent 1 ENE 3.57 in 0500 AM 05/10 28.84N/95.66W
Markham 2.68 in 0547 AM 05/10 28.97N/96.06W
...Montgomery County...
Spring 3.16 in 0546 AM 05/10 30.09N/95.36W
Conroe 2.91 in 0544 AM 05/10 30.15N/95.41W
Tomball 2.65 in 0545 AM 05/10 30.16N/95.63W
Magnolia 2.15 in 1146 PM 05/09 30.15N/95.76W
The Woodlands 2.07 in 0548 AM 05/10 30.21N/95.54W
Spring 1.98 in 0258 AM 05/10 30.17N/95.51W
Magnolia 1.91 in 0302 AM 05/10 30.22N/95.66W
The Woodlands 1.4 WNW 1.55 in 0900 AM 05/09 30.17N/95.51W
4 NW The Woodlands 1.50 in 0549 AM 05/10 30.20N/95.53W
Houston 1.47 in 0542 AM 05/10 30.17N/95.44W
Willis 1.25 in 0549 AM 05/10 30.42N/95.34W
The Woodlands 2.8 N 1.20 in 0700 AM 05/09 30.20N/95.50W
Oak Ridge North 1.08 in 0527 AM 05/10 30.17N/95.44W
...Polk County...
Livingston 0.5 E 1.11 in 0800 AM 05/09 30.71N/94.93W
...Trinity County...
Trinity 5.1 NW 1.72 in 0700 AM 05/09 31.00N/95.42W
Trinity 2.9 E 1.10 in 0700 AM 05/09 30.94N/95.32W
...Waller County...
Brookshire 3.84 in 0159 AM 05/10 29.77N/96.04W
Hockley 2.73 in 0543 AM 05/10 30.13N/95.81W
Katy 1.26 in 0550 AM 05/10 29.79N/95.88W
...Wharton County...
Colorado River near Glen Flo 3.74 in 0500 AM 05/10 29.34N/96.20W
El Campo 2 Nw 3.25 in 0500 AM 05/10 29.22N/96.29W
Boling 3.20 in 0543 AM 05/10 29.27N/95.95W
...Maritime Stations...
Goose Creek 3.92 in 0518 AM 05/10 29.71N/94.99W
Observations are collected from a variety of sources with varying
equipment and exposures. We thank all volunteer weather observers
for their dedication. Not all data listed are considered official.
$$
I was fortunate to be in an area of NW Harris County that was "drier". Just emptied 1.70 inches from my gauge. It does look like a bit of quieter day for most with best chances of rain closer to the Coast. I do see another disturbance in the jet stream over Baja headed this way and the frontal boundary is hung up over us today. One thing we'll need to watch for is the possibility of a wave or two of low pressure that rights NE from the Brownville area tonight into tomorrow. While I do not expect any major problems at this time, some locations could pick up another 2 to 4 inches. Some of our Rivers like the Brazos and the San Bernard still look to reach Major Flood Stage. More rainfall is expected next week as this active weather pattern continues.
NWSWGRFCVerified account @NWSWGRFC · 2h2 hours ago
Quick Rainfall River Update 3-5" fell along the Gulf Coast causing many small creeks and bayous out of banks. Most of the small bayous have crested and will begin to recede. Larger rivers like Brazos and San Bernard expected to reach near major flooding. #houwx #txwx #txflood
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Houston TranStar
Published on May 10, 2019
Animation of the Houston TranStar Roadway Flood Warning System alert zones beginning at 6 pm, Thursday May 9, 2019.
Category
Science & Technology
Heavy rainfall has shifted offshore with some remaining scattered development generally along and south of the US 59 corridor over Fort Bend and Wharton Counties.
Run-off continues from the overnight rainfall, but is gradually subsiding in most streets and most watersheds.
Overbanks Conditions:
Clear Creek: (Pearland Parkway to I-45) (nearing crest)
Armand Bayou: crested and falling back with banks
Upper Spring Creek: well overbanks and continues to rise
Upper Little Cypress Creek: cresting, but holding steady
West Fork of San Jacinto: overbanks and rising
All other watersheds are high, but within banks and continue to transport flows downstream.
Forecast:
Will likely see a break in the rainfall for much of the day and then will need to watch where the weak surface front is toward the afternoon and evening as another disturbance moves out of Mexico and across the region. Could see another 1-3 inches overnight into Saturday morning with isolated amounts of 5 inches. It is possible that this next round of weather could form and remain closer to the coastal areas with not much inland, but at this time that remains uncertain and depends on several factors today. Will need to watch trends today and hopefully there will be more confidence this afternoon on what tonight into early Saturday will hold.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared! Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
NWS HoustonVerified account @NWSHouston · 3m3 minutes ago
May 2019 is off to a wet start across most of Southeast Texas. Here is a chart with May 2019 rainfall and where this May ranks historically (through the 9th).
Attachments
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Fri May 10, 2019 10:22 am
So are we pretty much done with the rain?
Here is what HGX is thinking...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1103 AM CDT FRI MAY 10 2019
.DISCUSSION...
KEY UPDATES TO THE FORECAST:
- IN GENERAL AREAWIDE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN LAST 24
HOURS WITH SEVERAL LONG SWATHS OF 3-6 INCHES OF RAINFALL.
- OVERNIGHT MCS HAS STABILIZED THE BOUNDARY LAYER SO THE THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY IS LOWER. WPC NOW HAS SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR FLOODING.
- OVERALL SHOULD HAVE A BREAK OR LULL IN HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT
TODAY DUE TO THE ATMOSPHERE TAKING SOME TIME TO RECOVER AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE REGION. STILL POSSIBLE TO GET
ANOTHER 1/4 TO 1/2 INCHES OF RAIN TODAY.
- THERE IS STILL A THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL GENERALLY FROM
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO AROUND NOON ON SATURDAY. POSSIBLE TO GET
ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED 5 INCH AMOUNTS DURING THIS
TIME WHICH COULD CAUSE MORE FLOODING.
- FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MAINLY FOR THE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY ACTIVITY.
RECENT RADAR TREND CONTINUES TO SHOW BEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE OUT OVER THE GULF WITH LINGERING SHOWERS AND VERY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE COAST. A COOLER AND MORE STABLE
AIRMASS HAS FILTERED INTO AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR. WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED AREA RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER LINGERS. ALSO SHAVED A FEW DEGREES OFF OF THIS AFTERNOON'S
EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES.
ALL EYES TURN TOWARD WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
NEW MODELS ARE STILL ARRIVING, BUT WHAT WE HAVE SO FAR CONTINUES
TO POINT TOWARD A POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING MAINLY LATE TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED 5 INCH AMOUNTS COULD STILL HAPPEN IF THE AIRMASS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS RECOVERS ENOUGH FROM YESTERDAY AND LAST
NIGHT'S ACTIVITY. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY, BUT WE WILL LOOK INTO POSSIBLY
DROPPING SOME OF OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES (WHERE MUCH LESS RAIN HAS
FALLEN) WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. 42
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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Not very impressed overall with rain totals. We should consider ourselves very lucky. Things were forecasted to be much worse. There wasn’t really any training going on. Seems like the front bucked up against the boundary and gave it a kick south to get offshore.
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Fri May 10, 2019 12:20 pm
Not very impressed overall with rain totals. We should consider ourselves very lucky. Things were forecasted to be much worse. There wasn’t really any training going on. Seems like the front bucked up against the boundary and gave it a kick south to get offshore.
Tell that to folks who live near the brazos rivershed.
