Hurricane Alex. 40 Miles NNE of La Pesca. 100 MPH/948MB

[niner21]

I told you so. No trip to IAH for this sucker. Next....

[srainhoutx]

Hi Res satellite imagery loop suggests Alex continues to organize. A bit of dry air to the SW, but convestion ramping up near the center on the North, East and South simi circle. Would not be surprised to see at least a Cat 2 at landfall.

[sleetstorm]

What is the trough's current status?

[srainhoutx]

What is the trough's current status?

Some clues from WV Imagery...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tropical/satpix ... v_loop.php

[singlemom]

Thanks again for bringing up the heavy rainfall concern singlemom. We appear to be on the dirty side of Alex with landfall expected to our S and W. The NE quadrant usually will contains a tremendous amount of tropical moisture that can feed into the area E of where landfall occurs. That can persist for several days as the moisture feed off the Gulf continues and relaxes. I suspect that even a N MX landfall will allow for a chance of tropical showers and storms throughout the weekend. If Alex tracks closer to our area, that opens the door to many other issues. Needless to say we need to keep an eye on the situation as it unfolds.[/quote]

Thanks again, Srain, for the spot on analysis and response. That's what I've been wondering about and it really hasn't been discussed that much as this has been one odd storm. Byte, I've been concerned about the points you've brought up this morning. I love the insight the night crew brings me. This is one of the best boards out there and I sure have appreciated it.

[srainhoutx]

[wxdata]

Speaking of rain totals, HPC has upped again total rain amounts for SE TX, especially along the coast..

[ticka1]

Speaking of rain totals, HPC has upped again total rain amounts for SE TX, especially along the coast..

How much confidence do you have in what rain we will get here in SE Texas?

[SusieinLP]

If those rain bands could lift just a few miles, my area would be getting in on some rain now...But those bands are looking pretty impressive SW of here.....

[ticka1]

Alex STILL not a hurricane with the 11 a.m. advisory.

[singlemom]

Here's a silly question:

I keep looking at pics like this one, and I keep seeing this rather large area of convection to the northeast. With all the focus of where Alex is going to land, what about that rather large area to the Northeast? Where's that going to set up shop? Or is *that* the area that is supposed to make the left turn *any time now*? Inquiring noobs want to know.

[Hardcoreweather]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc10/A ... N-927W.jpg

[SusieinLP]

Well Alex is so gosh dang big, that low pressure is just maintaining the size?

[srainhoutx]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc10/A ... N-927W.jpg

I was about to mention those 55 kt flight level winds with the northern outer band.

[srainhoutx]

Possible center. Waiting on vortex message.

17:16:00Z 22.833N 93.483W 842.3 mb
(~ 24.87 inHg) 1,349 meters
(~ 4,426 feet) 981.7 mb
(~ 28.99 inHg)

[tireman4]

What of that northern piece of Alex? Will it come back and consolidate with the rest of the system?

[srainhoutx]

I see 981.3...

171530 2249N 09330W 8433 01341 9816 +215 +193 274009 010 026 004 03
171600 2250N 09329W 8423 01349 9817 +209 +196 228005 007 014 005 03
171630 2252N 09328W 8429 01339 9813 +206 +198 143009 012 024 004 03
171700 2253N 09328W 8425 01342 9814 +204 +198 129012 014 024 004 03

RECON may have turned NE prior to center as well.

[srainhoutx]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 17:38Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number & Year: 01L in 2010
Storm Name: Alex (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 21
A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 17:16:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22°51'N 93°29'W (22.85N 93.4833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 280 miles (450 km) to the WNW (298°) from Mérida, Yucatán, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,270m (4,167ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 48kts (~ 55.2mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 70 nautical miles (81 statute miles) to the NW (311°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 61° at 50kts (From the ENE at ~ 57.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 38 nautical miles (44 statute miles) to the NW (311°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 981mb (28.97 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 19°C (66°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 68kts (~ 78.3mph) in the northeast quadrant at 17:20:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 68kts (~ 78.3mph) in the northeast quadrant at 17:20:30Z

[srainhoutx]

Big view...

[Rip76]

That picture should be titled....

"Perspective."