APRIL 2019: Warm & Muggy WX to End The Month

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unome
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I feel sorry for those still in the path of this system, nothing worse than severe weather at night
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srainhoutx
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Preliminary survey of Franklin Tornado suggests an EF-3 (winds of 140 MPH). Last time Robertson County had an F-3 was May 10, 1959.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Belmer
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Our next storm threat will be coming up in a few days. Timing right now for our area looks to be Wednesday evening into early Thursday morning as another low pressure deepens as it crosses the Rockies into the Central Plains swinging a trough through here. The SPC currently has a 15% for our area with a greater threat further north into NE Texas up towards the Midwest. This will get fine tuned as we get closer as there are still some kinks to work out. Nonetheless, Spring is making itself known.
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Models have come into much better agreement through the medium-range
period as compared to 24 to 48 hours prior. Both now depict a
strong upper trough moving out of the Rockies and into the Plains
Day 4 (Wednesday 4-17), eastward into the Mississippi Valley region
Day 5 (Thursday 4-18), and then across the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys Day 6(Friday 4-19). This system will be accompanied by an
associated/well-developed surface low and frontal system, with the
low progged to begin occluding Day 5 over the upper Midwest region.
The cold front is currently expected to reach the Appalachians by
the end of Day 5 (Friday morning), and then continue eastward to the
coast through Saturday morning.

Once the front clears the coast, surface high pressure residing over
the Gulf of Mexico in the wake of the front and a weaker upper
pattern suggests a relative lull in severe potential Days 7-8 (next
weekend).

Meanwhile however, as the system emerges into the Plains Day 4,
strong -- though somewhat meridional -- flow accompanying the system
should combine with an amply moist/unstable warm sector to permit
storm development, within a zone of ascent focused near the
low/front. Though models differ somewhat with respect to the
position of the surface low, a somewhat bi-modal risk may evolve --
with one relative maximum near and ahead of the surface low where
directional shear should be greatest (currently expected in the
vicinity of Iowa), and a second from the southern Plains eastward
into the Ozarks/Arklatex where the most substantial CAPE should
evolve. Large hail and damaging winds are expected, along with some
tornado risk -- especially nearer the surface low/warm front.

As widespread convection develops through the overnight hours, and
shifts eastward, a more complex forecast becomes apparent due to the
effects of the precipitation and associated cloud cover an
warm-sector destabilization for Day 5 -- and similarly for Day 6 as
the expansive area of convection continues advancing eastward toward
the Atlantic Coast. While details with respect to severe risk are
therefore difficult to highlight this far in advance, large 15% risk
areas will be maintained, given the strength of the upper system
which will provide a kinematic field favorable for severe storms
atop a warm/moist pre-frontal airmass.

..Goss.. 04/14/2019
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For anyone interested, here is a sounding issued out of College Station yesterday when the tornado over Hearn was occurring. Notice how the cap had weakened enough and low-level shear had increased enough to provide plenty of rotation. Also shows how important that 0-1km shear is for the formation of tornadoes in general.
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Cpv17
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Models are starting to come around to what looks like a wet pattern ahead for the rest of April. Could be looking at a big time severe weather threat late Wednesday/early Thursday across all of the viewing area.
unome
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https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html
SPC AC 150728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2019

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS SOUTHWEST ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong/severe storms are forecast Wednesday afternoon and evening,
from the Iowa vicinity south-southwest into the southern Plains.

...Synopsis...
A gradually strengthening upper trough will move out of the Rockies
and into the Plains Wednesday, and will be the primary feature of
interest this period. Flanking the trough, ridging will encompass
the western and eastern portions of the country.

At the surface, a weak low initially over Kansas is forecast to
shift northeastward to Iowa by sunset, and then into the northern
Illinois/Wisconsin area overnight. Along a trailing cold front,
models forecast weak secondary/frontal low development over the
southwest Oklahoma vicinity during the afternoon -- likely near the
intersection of the front an a southward-extending dryline. This
cold front and dryline should focus late afternoon development of
strong/locally severe storms.

...Portions of the central and southern Plains east to the lower
Missouri/mid Mississippi Valleys...
As low-level moisture spreads gradually northward on southerly flow
ahead of the advancing storm system, steep lapse rates associated
with eastward advection of an elevated mixed layer will result in
development of a moderately unstable but capped warm sector.

Capping should hinder convective development -- particularly over
the southern Plains -- until late afternoon, but expect storms to
eventually develop along the cold front, and southward along an
eastward-mixing dryline as ascent increases in advance of the
strengthening upper system.

With flow aloft forecast to gradually strengthen as the trough
advances, shear sufficient for supercells will reside across much of
the area by afternoon. As such, developing storms will likely
become quickly severe given the degree of CAPE expected, with very
large hail likely to be the primary severe risk. Greatest risk for
the largest hail appears to exist across the southern Plains, near
the axis of steepest lapse rates associated with the elevated mixed
layer advecting northeastward from northern Mexico/New Mexico.
Damaging wind gusts will also be possible locally, and a tornado or
two cannot be ruled out. Convection will continue overnight --
spreading eastward toward the Mississippi River, but severe risk
should gradually diminish overnight.

..Goss.. 04/15/2019
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srainhoutx
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  • PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
    252 AM CDT MON APR 15 2019

    ...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 04/13/19 TORNADO EVENT...CORRECTED

    SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTED SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON APRIL 13, 2019.
    IN ADDITION TO NUMEROUS STRAIGHT-LINE WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL REPORTS,
    THREE TORNADOES HAVE BEEN CONFIRMED. THESE STORMS WERE THE INITIAL
    PORTION OF A MUCH BROADER SEVERE WEATHER EVENT THAT STRETCHED
    ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH APRIL 13 AND CONTINUED INTO
    THE MID-ATLANTIC ON APRIL 14.

    A DAMAGE SURVEY TEAM WENT TO HOUSTON COUNTY ON APRIL 14 AND SURVEYED
    DAMAGE TRACKS FROM THREE TORNADOES. TWO OF THOSE SURVEYS WERE DONE
    JOINTLY WITH WFO SHREVEPORT, AS THE TRACKS CROSSED THE BOUNDARY
    BETWEEN THE TWO OFFICES' AREAS OF RESPONSIBILITY. MORE DETAILS ON
    THE PORTIONS OF THE TRACKS NOT IN THE HOUSTON/GALVESTON COUNTY
    WARNING AREA WILL BE RELEASED BY WFO SHREVEPORT.

    .TORNADO # 1 - WECHES...

    RATING: EF-3
    ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 140 MPH
    PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 15 MILES
    PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 800 YARDS
    FATALITIES: 1
    INJURIES: 0

    START DATE: APRIL 13 2019
    START TIME: 1256 PM CDT
    START LOCATION: 10 ENE OF CROCKETT / HOUSTON COUNTY / TX
    START LAT/LON: 31.3997 / -95.3037

    END DATE: APRIL 13 2019
    END TIME: 118 PM CDT
    END LOCATION: 3 NE OF WECHES / HOUSTON COUNTY / TX
    END_LAT/LON: 31.5790 / -95.1660

    TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN IN HOUSTON COUNTY NORTHEAST OF CROCKETT AND
    TRACKED FOR 30 MILES ACROSS THE COUNTY LINE THROUGH CHEROKEE COUNTY.
    THE HOUSTON COUNTY PORTION OF THE PATH WAS 14 MILES. MOST OF THE
    DAMAGE WAS SNAPPED PINES INDICATE OF EF-1 DAMAGE BUT MUCH MORE
    SEVERE DAMAGE WAS FOUND IN AN AREA JUST NORTHEAST OF WECHES WHERE A
    DOUBLE-WIDE TRAILER AND ITS FRAME WERE THROWN OVER 150 YARDS AND
    DESTROYED. A FEMALE OCCUPANT WITHIN THE TRAILER WAS KILLED.

    .TORNADO # 2 - LOVELADY...

    RATING: EF-2
    ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 130 MPH
    PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 3.85 MILES
    PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 100 YARDS
    FATALITIES: 0
    INJURIES: 0

    START DATE: APRIL 13 2019
    START TIME: 1223 PM CDT
    START LOCATION: 7 WSW OF LOVELADY / HOUSTON COUNTY / TX
    START LAT/LON: 31.0789 / -95.5773

    END DATE: APRIL 13 2019
    END TIME: 1228 PM CDT
    END LOCATION: 5 W OF LOVELADY / HOUSTON COUNTY / TX
    END_LAT/LON: 31.1212 / -95.5348

    TORNADO PRODUCED INTERMITTENT DAMAGE ALONG ITS TRACK TAKING A
    METAL ROOF OFF OF A HOME WHERE IT TOUCHED DOWN. THE MOST SEVERE
    DAMAGE WAS ON THE NORTHEAST END OF THE TRACK WHERE TREES WERE
    STRIPPED OF LIMBS, VEHICLES WERE TOSSED AND STACKED ON ONE
    ANOTHER AND A DOUBLE-WIDE TRAILER HOME WAS DESTROYED.

    .TORNADO # 3 - TADMOR...

    RATING: EF-1
    ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 90 MPH
    PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 0.30 MILES
    PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 75 YARDS
    FATALITIES: 0
    INJURIES: 4

    START DATE: APRIL 13 2019
    START TIME: 1133 AM CDT
    START LOCATION: 1 NE OF TADMOR / HOUSTON COUNTY / TX
    START LAT/LON: 31.4337 / -95.1715

    END DATE: APRIL 13 2019
    END TIME: 1135 AM CDT
    END LOCATION: 1.5 NE OF TADMOR / HOUSTON COUNTY / TX
    END_LAT/LON: 31.4337 / -95.1704

    TORNADO DAMAGE WAS FOUND ALONG COUNTY ROAD 1175 WITH TREES SNAPPED
    AND UPROOTED ALONG A PATH PARALLEL TO THE ROAD. NEAR THE END OF
    THE PATH, THE TORNADO DESTROYED A DOUBLE-WIDE TRAILER HOME AND
    PUSHED IT INTO A WOODED AREA. FOUR OCCUPANTS IN THE HOME WERE
    INJURED BUT, AS OF APRIL 14TH, WERE RELEASED FROM THE HOSPITAL.

    EF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES
    INTO THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES.

    EF0...WEAK......65 TO 85 MPH
    EF1...WEAK......86 TO 110 MPH
    EF2...STRONG....111 TO 135 MPH
    EF3...STRONG....136 TO 165 MPH
    EF4...VIOLENT...166 TO 200 MPH
    EF5...VIOLENT...>200 MPH*|

    NOTE:
    THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE
    PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT AND PUBLICATION IN NWS STORM DATA.

    $$
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Cromagnum
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Looks like roughly the same areas have been under the gun for the last 3 severe events.
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djmike
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Is it just me or does it seem like severe weather last several springs are further north and we catch only the very tail end line...Certainly not begging for it, just seems further north than always before. Like we’ve shifted somehow.
Mike
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djmike wrote: Mon Apr 15, 2019 8:17 am Is it just me or does it seem like severe weather last several springs are further north and we catch only the very tail end line...Certainly not begging for it, just seems further north than always before. Like we’ve shifted somehow.
Now you've gone and done it.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 151745
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1245 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2019

.AVIATION...
Onshore winds have returned to the area but moisture return will
be slow to make its comeback tonight (per the low dewpoints over
the Gulf and the strong mixing we have going on right now). How-
ever, as the gradient tightens overnight/tomorrow, we should see
a more rapid influx of low-level moisture. In the meantime, will
be going with brief MVFR CIGS around sunrise. We will likely be-
gin seeing an increase of mid/high clouds tonight. Otherwise, no
major changes from the VFR conditions already in place. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2019/

SHORT TERM...
High pressure over LA/MS will allow for southerly winds over SE
Texas today. Overall looking at a warm dry day with high
temperatures getting up into the upper 70s to low 80s and
dewpoints in the 50s. Forecast looks on track in the near term.
Main concern will be the threat for severe weather Wednesday night
into Thursday morning. We will take a look at that with the 12Z
model guidance.

Overpeck

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 80 59 81 67 80 / 0 0 0 20 50
Houston (IAH) 80 60 80 68 81 / 0 0 0 20 50
Galveston (GLS) 73 66 75 70 77 / 0 0 0 10 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$
Cpv17
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The 12z Euro sucks for our area. 0z looked way better.
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A mild morning across SE TX with temps mostly in the 60s and light SSE winds as the GOM moisture returns ahead of the next storm system Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible again especially for areas already hard hit across ETX from Saturday’s severe weather and tornadoes. The SPC has an Enhanced Risk area across Central/W OK and W AR, across Central and ETX Wednesday afternoon and evening surrounded by a large Slight Risk area across the S Plains.
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srainhoutx
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The strongest storms look to remain N of Metro Houston with a chance of a weakening squall line approaching in the wee hours of Thursday morning for our area. Storms look to ramp up east of us during the Thursday as a stout West Wind brings an end to rain chances for SE Texas.

Cooler drier air filters in on a NW flow bringing us very pleasant weather for Good Friday. Easter Sunday is looking good with a slight uptick in humidity and sunny and warm weather for those Easter Egg Hunts and outdoor activities!
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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unome
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WPC sure looks like they have the "weather" closer to us Wed/Thur

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/NationalF ... rt/map.php#

SPC's Day 2 update in a couple hours will be interesting, but for now, the upcoming holiday weekend looks gorgeous
unome
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this was clarifying, thanks SPC

https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/1118211235500167174
14/16 12:55 PM CDT: Severe storms capable of scattered damaging winds and very large hail are expected tomorrow (Wednesday) across parts of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas during the day, and eastern Texas, Arkansas and northern Louisiana overnight. Isolated tornadoes may also occur.
SPC AC 161731

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2019

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN TEXAS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND INTO THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of damaging wind and hail are expected
Wednesday across parts of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas during the day,
developing into eastern Texas, Arkansas and northern Louisiana
overnight. A few severe storms are also possible overnight across
Missouri and into western Illinois.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will move from AZ/NM into the southern and central
Plains providing lift, cooling aloft and increasing deep-layer wind
shear. At the surface, low pressure is forecast to deepen over the
TX Panhandle during the day with a dryline arcing across southwest
OK into central TX. Behind the low, a cold front will become quite
strong and will surge south overnight across much of western TX and
OK.

A plume of mid 60s F dewpoints will likely develop ahead of the
dryline, extending as far north as southeast KS. Upper 60s dewpoints
are likely generally south of the Red River and along the I-35
corridor in TX. Strong heating will occur west of the dryline, and
when combined with cooling aloft, will result in very steep lapse
rates especially over the TX Panhandle, western OK, and northeast
NM, favorable for rapid storm formation. Damaging wind and hail are
likely from late afternoon across the TX Panhandle, developing
through evening from TX into MO. The greatest risk of significant
severe will be centered over TX and OK.

...OK/TX panhandles, northwest OK, southern KS (Late afternoon) into
Missouri and Illinois (Overnight)...
Storms will rapidly form during the early afternoon over northeast
NM, spreading eastward ahead of the cold front across the OK and
northern TX Panhandles, and eventually into northwest OK and far
southern KS. Very large hail is possible initially, and perhaps a
brief/weak tornado. Then, a transition to damaging winds is expected
as activity produces outflow and surges east/northeastward into
early evening. Wind profiles will be marginally favorable for
supercells given veering with height, but relatively weak in the
low-levels. Still, the very steep lapse rates may compensate, aiding
storm vigor.

During the evening, activity will likely spread across eastern KS,
MO, and into western IL ahead of a cold front. Sufficient
instability may exist to support an ongoing MCS, with wind threat.

...Much of central into northeast TX and Arkansas // Early evening
through overnight...
Strong heating will occur west of the dryline, but capping will
exist most of the day. Storms are forecast to form near or just
after peak heating in TX, and into southwest OK. Steep lapse rates
and long hodographs will favor large damaging hail. Wind profiles
exhibit a veer-back signal in the lower 3 km, suggesting
less-than-optimal supercell/tornado environment. Still, robust
storms capable of severe hail and wind are likely. These will likely
progress eastward during the evening in mixed-mode fashion across
northeast TX and into western AR. Here, a brief tornado is possible,
with stronger SRH overnight (but cooler boundary layer).

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado: 5% - Slight
Wind: 30% - Enhanced
Hail: 30% SIG - Enhanced

..Jewell.. 04/16/2019

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1815Z (1:15PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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tireman4
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503
FXUS64 KHGX 161616
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1116 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2019

.DISCUSSION...
No major changes planned for this update. High clouds moving in
from the west are not expected to impact afternoon temperatures
too much, but the continued onshore winds will help to increase
low-level moisture through the day. Current grids look to be on
track at this time. 41

&&

.MARINE...
The moderate onshore flow will gradually strengthen tonight and a
longer stronger fetch should help to build seas and increase runup.
Will continue the SCEC for the Gulf waters through 7 PM then up it
to an SCA for all the Gulf waters. Periods of SCA conditions will
prevail through Thursday morning then with the cold frontal passage
will likely return.

Tide levels this morning about 0.5 to 1 foot above normal and these
should creep up as well...more so for the Gulf facing as runup
contributes tonight and Wednesday. Will need to keep an eye on
water levels Wed night as they`ll top out around 3 to 3.5 ft MLLW
which may cause some minor issues at the HWY 124/87 intersection on
the Bolivar Peninsula.
45
&&

.AVIATION...
Mix of VFR/MVFR this morning with cloud streets that abound under
the expanding cirrus shield. CU developing around 2100-2800ft so far
this morning but should rise and likely scatter out more this
afternoon. Strong inversion around 3500 feet should cap out the CU.
Gusty SSE winds on tap throughout the day 10-20g20-29kt should be
the range for most of the inland sites. MVFR ceiling developing
tonight between 02-06z.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 81 67 79 62 74 / 0 20 60 90 20
Houston (IAH) 81 68 79 67 77 / 0 10 50 90 60
Galveston (GLS) 75 70 75 69 77 / 0 10 30 80 70

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Thursday
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport
to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 7 PM CDT this evening
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport
to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$
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srainhoutx
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Tuesday afternoon weather briefing from Jeff:

Another strong storm system will affect TX Wednesday and Thursday with severe weather possible.

Low level warm air advection has returned to the region on SE winds allowing dewpoints to increase into the 60’s. Air mass will continue to moisten and destabilize during the day Wednesday, but mid level capping should prevent much more than a few northward moving showers. Ejection of the SW US trough into the southern plains Wednesday will send a dryline and cold front combo eastward across the state with a resulting line of thunderstorms given favorable moisture, wind shear, and jet stream dynamics. Expect storms to develop mid evening Wednesday across the TX Hill Country and SW TX…mainly as supercells with a very large damaging hail threat. As storms approach and cross I-35, expect the scattered supercells to grow upscale into a line of thunderstorms or line segments with an increasing potential for damaging straight line winds.

SPC outlook for Wednesday has the highest severe threat probabilities across the Brazos Valley and north of HWY 105 or across areas that were very hard hit on Saturday with tornadoes. Capping will begin to increase after dark on Wednesday evening and it is somewhat in question how far south the line of storms will extend across SE TX. Areas around Matagorda Bay may not see much of a line of storms. With areas north of I-10 and especially N of HWY 105 likely seeing the strongest storms and more solid line of weather.

SPC Severe Weather Outlook (Wednesday):
04162019 Jeff untitled.png
[/i]
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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DoctorMu
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I took a couple of photos of the destructive cell passing north of Bryan towards Franklin on Saturday. It certainly looked ominous and general rotation could be seen. Hope we escape the next round.

Image

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