Hurricane Alex. 40 Miles NNE of La Pesca. 100 MPH/948MB

[Bluefalcon]

Recon inbound to fix the center, About 60 miles out. Should start to see if this is a wobble or more of a NW course.

[Bluefalcon]

Recon outbound from the center. Alex is moving to the NNW between 10-15 MPH. Waiting on Vortex message. Some flight level winds in the NE Quad are running 78-79 MPH (converted).

[Mr. T]

Recon outbound from the center. Alex is moving to the NNW between 10-15 MPH. Waiting on Vortex message. Some flight level winds in the NE Quad are running 78-79 MPH (converted).

It is almost a hurricane...

Latest advisory has the movement NNW at 8 mph. He's picking up speed!

[Bluefalcon]

My wife works IT. She just got up to get a drink of water and asked me what the hell I was doing? I told her THIS is what the internet was made for. She said at least it wasn't porn. I said, this is porn to me

[biggerbyte]

We still do not know when and where the expected curve to the west will take place. Everybody along the Texas coast should be prepared for changes in the forecast as warranted. In other words, be ready for anything.

[Mr. T]

0z Euro says Alex is going to be on the Mexican radio with the Wall of Voodoo

Yes. I did just make an obscure 80s reference. Deal with it...

[Bluefalcon]

Looks like the Recon is going in for another pass.

[Mr. T]

Looks like the Recon is going in for another pass.

Looking at the latest center fixes, it is definitely on a good clip to the NNW now... It's been given a push!

[Mr. T]

We still do not know when and where the expected curve to the west will take place. Everybody along the Texas coast should be prepared for changes in the forecast as warranted. In other words, be ready for anything.

Cerainly, nobody should be letting their guard down quite yet

[Bluefalcon]

Looks like the Recon is going in for another pass.

Looking at the latest center fixes, it is definitely on a good clip to the NNW now... It's been given a push!

Is that a push or a pull?

[Mr. T]

Is that a push or a pull?

both!

Looks like recon is heading back home

[Bluefalcon]

Let me ask this Mr. T, A lot of talk today about the trough moving through Central Texas today. About 8pm tonight, a line of heavy thunderstorms set up just to the west of Austin-Round Rock, and were crawling this way. But now they have actually moved off back to the west. Took a gander at the WV loop, and the trough doesn't seem to be moving as fast as yesterday. Would that have anything to do with the acceleration to the NNW?

[Bluefalcon]

Is that a push or a pull?

both!

Looks like recon is heading back home

WTH! Were they just doing donuts Gulf with a C-130?

[Mr. T]

Let me ask this Mr. T, A lot of talk today about the trough moving through Central Texas today. About 8pm tonight, a line of heavy thunderstorms set up just to the west of Austin-Round Rock, and were crawling this way. But now they have actually moved off back to the west. Took a gander at the WV loop, and the trough doesn't seem to be moving as fast as yesterday. Would that have anything to do with the acceleration to the NNW?

It may also have to do with some of the ridging to its east across and off Florida finally giving Alex a nudge...

As upper heights begin to build across the South as the bypassing trough moves away from the Northeast, this will give Alex a push to the west. Of course, with the obvious statement being, when?

WTH! Were they just doing donuts Gulf with a C-130?

lol

wouldn't you?

[Bluefalcon]

Let me ask this Mr. T, A lot of talk today about the trough moving through Central Texas today. About 8pm tonight, a line of heavy thunderstorms set up just to the west of Austin-Round Rock, and were crawling this way. But now they have actually moved off back to the west. Took a gander at the WV loop, and the trough doesn't seem to be moving as fast as yesterday. Would that have anything to do with the acceleration to the NNW?

It may also have to do with some of the ridging to its east across and off Florida finally giving Alex a nudge...

As upper heights begin to build across the South as the bypassing trough moves away from the Northeast, this will give Alex a push to the west. Of course, with the obvious statement being, when?

WTH! Were they just doing donuts Gulf with a C-130?

lol

wouldn't you?

I was a Bradley CFV commander for 10yrs in the Army. Everytime we tried it, we just threw the track off the tank. Nothing sucks worse than putting thousands of lbs. of track back on your tank!

[Scott747]

0z Euro says Alex is going to be on the Mexican radio with the Wall of Voodoo

Yes. I did just make an obscure 80s reference. Deal with it...

Yep. The NOAA data and King Euro may have sealed the deal along with Alex finally moving again.

Josh is about to book his flight for Monterrey and I think that's the best plan of action.

[Bluefalcon]

Goodnight all.

[Mr. T]

Yep. The NOAA data and King Euro may have sealed the deal along with Alex finally moving again.

Josh is about to book his flight for Monterrey and I think that's the best plan of action.

Yup, agree

Goodnight all.

Goodnight, Sir Falcon

[Scott747]

Nothing to exciting in the 4 am disco by Stewart.

Sounded like he would have adjusted the track a bit further down the coast because of all the modeling data but held off with the real time movement still not showing the expected and more pronounced turn.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/07 BASED ON RECON AND MICROWAVE
SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS OVER THE PAST 8 HOURS. THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SUITE...INCLUDING THE CONSENSUS MODELS...HAS SHIFTED
SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...ALEX HAS SHOWN NO SIGNS OF MAKING ANY
SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD PROGRESS LIKE THE ECMWF...NOGAPS...GFS...AND
GFDL MODELS HAVE BEEN AND ARE STILL FORECASTING TO OCCUR. THE
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT...HOWEVER...ON BUILDING A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF ALEX OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STEER THE CYCLONE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR
WESTWARD TRACK WITH TIME. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS STRONGLY ELONGATED IN A
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION. THIS IS A GOOD SHORT-TERM MOTION INDICATOR
...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THAT ALEX SHOULD MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR ANOTHER 6-12 HOURS BEFORE TURNING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THIS MOTION VECTOR WOULD KEEP ALEX ALONG OR
JUST OUTSIDE THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. SINCE THERE
IS NO OBVIOUS PHYSICAL JUSTIFICATION TO SHIFT THE TRACK SOUTHWARD
AT THIS TIME...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS WELL TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

[ticka1]

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

just looking at Alex - the right side of the storm is bigger then the left side. Texas will feel the affects....landfall might be mexico but texas is going to get this hot mess.