January 2019 - Active Progressive WX Pattern Ahead

[Kingwood36]

Non zero chance

[stormlover]

I am starting to think, that winter weather isn't going to happen for us guys in se tx lol

[Cpv17]

Imo, the Pacific hasn’t been very kind to us Texans here this winter. The ridging out west has been too close to us and the troughing has been too far east.. which is why we’re just getting glancing blows. +PNA. As far as precipitation goes, it’s been limited ever since the second week of December for the most part, which also is when temps started to go from below normal to near normal or above. We can’t get any systems to dig down deep into Cali/Baja peninsula and eject across Texas when there’s ridging there. The MJO has been stuck in P5 for what seems like an eternity. We need it to get into P7 & 8 if we want our winter to be salvaged.

[jasons2k]

Hearing some of y’all talk about 1973 like it was yesterday puts a smile on my face. That’s the year I was born. So for the first time in a long time, I don’t feel old

Living in Tampa, I didn’t see snow until 1978, when they had a once-in-a-lifetime snow event. They had ‘bay effect snow’ too. Didn’t see snow again until the mid-80’s, in Savannah.

Another chilly night with a low of 36 for me, but that’s not too bad

[CrashTestDummy]

Like my forecast low was 30 last night and we went all the way to 25...what is the reason for that? I am forecast at 31 tonight...should I expect upper 20’s?

There was nearly zero wind last night for most of the area, that allowed the cold air to settle in and make things very cold. We had a forecast of 33, yet got down to 29.

There should be a bit more wind, but still less than 10 MPH for most of the night. At least that's what I'm seeing in the forecast for our part of the world. I'm expecting at, or slightly below forecast lows for us in northern Brazoria county tonight. Luckily for us, the forecast low is upper-30's, so mid-30's may be on order. We'll keep stuff covered to protect against frost again.

[srainhoutx]

Imo, the Pacific hasn’t been very kind to us Texans here this winter. The ridging out west has been too close to us and the troughing has been too far east.. which is why we’re just getting glancing blows. +PNA. As far as precipitation goes, it’s been limited ever since the second week of December for the most part, which also is when temps started to go from below normal to near normal or above. We can’t get any systems to dig down deep into Cali/Baja peninsula and eject across Texas when there’s ridging there. The MJO has been stuck in P5 for what seems like an eternity. We need it to get into P7 & 8 if we want our winter to be salvaged.

Actually December 2018 is when the MJO was stuck in P5. It's actually moving rather quickly back toward P6 on onward.

Here is last year about this time. The MJO was much more amplified heading to P6

[Cpv17]

Imo, the Pacific hasn’t been very kind to us Texans here this winter. The ridging out west has been too close to us and the troughing has been too far east.. which is why we’re just getting glancing blows. +PNA. As far as precipitation goes, it’s been limited ever since the second week of December for the most part, which also is when temps started to go from below normal to near normal or above. We can’t get any systems to dig down deep into Cali/Baja peninsula and eject across Texas when there’s ridging there. The MJO has been stuck in P5 for what seems like an eternity. We need it to get into P7 & 8 if we want our winter to be salvaged.

Actually December 2018 is when the MJO was stuck in P5. It's actually moving rather quickly back toward P6 on onward.

01242019 MJO diagram_40days_forecast_GEFS_member.gif

Here is last year about this time. The MJO was much more amplified heading to P6

01262018 NCPE_phase_21m_small.gif

Nice! It just seemed stuck in phase 5 forever lol do you think it can go to 7 & 8 before winter ends?

[Katdaddy]

Another beautiful mild January weather day across SE TX with lots of sun, streaming cirrus clouds, and high temps in the upper 50s to low 60s. 35 days until March 1st.

[Cpv17]

GFS keeps trending better and better for next week. Some places might actually see something. Who knows?

[jasons2k]

It’s a chilly 34 here this morning. Looking forward to a few days of nicer weather. I need to get some things done outside this weekend.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 251139
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
539 AM CST Fri Jan 25 2019

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Relatively quiet TAF cycle. Currently light and variable winds
with a good veil of high clouds for many. There is a patch of
midlevel cloud in the region, but has drifted largely west of all
the terminals, only briefly giving CLL a BKN060 ob. Winds will
pick up a bit (5-10kts) out of the southeast this afternoon, then
settle down to light/variable again overnight. Late in the
forecast period, several terminals - mainly north - will look for
a VFR ceiling to set up.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 403 AM CST Fri Jan 25 2019/...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Really there is not a lot to write about in the near term
forecast and very little weather impacts expected. A weak cold
front was working its way south and located near KCLL to KUTS at
09Z. If anything there is a subtle wind shift with the front as it
pushes south today. The front may be helping support some mid
level clouds over central Texas but overall are not expected to be
an impact. High cloud should continue to move into the area with
an approaching jet streak in the sub-tropical jet across Mexico.
There is also short wave over the Rockies that will be moving
across the Southern Plains today helping support the weak frontal
push. This wave is embedded within a much larger trough and upper
low over Hudson Bay to the Great Lakes. This feature is what we
call the polar vortex. As such there is also upper level ridging
just off the Pacific Coast helping to support northerly flow out
of Canada. All of this doesn`t have much impact on the forecast
for today but has some implications for the next few days.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday]...

Another shortwave trough in the upper level flow now over the
Inter-mountain west should drop to the southern Rockies this
weekend and induce a coastal trough off the lower Texas coast.
This feature may cause some shower activity Saturday into Saturday
night but better chances out in the Gulf and towards the coastal
bend. This trough should move across by Sunday keeping NW flow
aloft in place. Boundary layer flow Sunday becomes more west to
northwest and should allow for some warming with more mixing. High
temperatures Sunday could reach the mid 60s and may need to be a
degree or two higher.


.LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]...

Monday into Tuesday a strong jet streak in the polar jet moves
out of the Rockies and into Texas. ECMWF is stronger with this jet
than the GFS and Canadian, however the GFS and Canadian are more
aggressive with breaking off a lobe of the polar vortex which then
drops towards the northern Great Lakes by Tuesday morning. The
resulting upper level pattern is more like a McFarland pattern
given the jet dropping out of Alberta Canada and a 1040-1044mb
surface high building over the Rockies supporting a cold airmass
behind the cold front. Cold front should reach SE Texas in that
06Z to 12Z Tuesday time frame with a chance of showers.
Temperatures should drop during this time from the 60s to the
30s/40s. We will also be looking at another gale event for the
Gulf coastal waters. Low temperatures Wednesday morning should
drop into the 30s with a possible freeze north of a Brenham to
Houston IAH line.

Forecast confidence at the end of next week is pretty low given
the model and ensemble model spreads. Forecast leans a bit more on
the ECMWF which keeps a progressive pattern as part of the polar
vortex moves towards the Great Lakes and then lifting back towards
Hudson Bay where it belongs. ECMWF/Canadian look to have a handle
on a short wave trough moving across the plains for Thur/Fri and
allow for an area of low pressure to move across the Plains. A
cold front trailing this system moves through while the GFS is
about a good 24 hours slower. All this means is that the forecast
will go with some 20 PoPs and temperatures near ensemble means.

Overpeck


.MARINE...

Variable winds very early this morning will see winds becoming
more established out of the east/southeast, and become a moderate
breeze by afternoon. Though this is generally a favorable fetch
for fog this time of year, the airmass is far too dry and water
too warm for any concerns on that front. Look for those onshore
winds to continue until a weak front late Saturday night/early
Sunday morning will shift winds back to northwesterly. Some
showers, particularly in the lower Gulf may occur Saturday ahead
of the front, but the weak front will put an end to any rain
potential. Winds rapidly become southwesterly by Sunday afternoon
in advance of a stronger front slated to move through in Tuesday`s
pre-dawn hours. This will likely bring a better potential for
showers as the front moves through, but the window will be brief
as conditions dry out again quickly behind the front thanks to
gusty offshore winds on Tuesday. The winds appear strong enough
that a small craft advisory for at least some of the waters looks
likely, and a gale may even be needed in the offshore waters on
Tuesday.

Luchs

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 57 42 59 42 65 / 0 10 20 10 0
Houston (IAH) 60 43 62 43 65 / 0 0 20 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 59 51 59 50 61 / 0 0 10 10 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Overpeck
SHORT TERM...Overpeck
LONG TERM...Overpeck
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Luchs

[unome]

winters like this remind me why I left MN for good - this is 5-days out for Int'l Falls, could change

mn winter.png

suddenly our winter mischief doesn't feel so cold

[MontgomeryCoWx]

winters like this remind me why I left MN for good - this is 5-days out for Int'l Falls, could change


mn winter.png


suddenly our winter mischief doesn't feel so cold

That can be tough to live in but that's not normal.

I did intentionally go to Yellowknife one time to experience -60 and below wind chills. It's a fun one time experience especially if you are staying with the Indigenous people and go dog sledding.

Very surreal for everything to be completely calm and still in those far northern regions.

[unome]

That can be tough to live in but that's not normal.

I did intentionally go to Yellowknife one time to experience -60 and below wind chills. It's a fun one time experience especially if you are staying with the Indigenous people and go dog sledding.

Very surreal for everything to be completely calm and still in those far northern regions.

the sound of the snow squeaking beneath your feet as you walk, I hated that sound. Winters did have some beautiful moments & I really miss seeing stars and the Milky Way without light pollution, but the last year there when the furnace went out at -40 (not wind chill) was just brutal, that was my "last straw moment"

[MontgomeryCoWx]

That can be tough to live in but that's not normal.

I did intentionally go to Yellowknife one time to experience -60 and below wind chills. It's a fun one time experience especially if you are staying with the Indigenous people and go dog sledding.

Very surreal for everything to be completely calm and still in those far northern regions.

the sound of the snow squeaking beneath your feet as you walk, I hated that sound. Winters did have some beautiful moments & I really miss seeing stars and the Milky Way without light pollution, but the last year there when the furnace went out at -40 (not wind chill) was just brutal, that was my "last straw moment"

Definitely understand that.

[jasons2k]

I think it’d be neat to go up to Yellowknife some day to experience that. Wasn’t there a Metallica concert like “Ice fest” up there years ago?

Would also like to go to Finland some day and see the northern lights from up there.

I enjoy the cold on my own terms, just don’t care to “live it” down here on the Gulf Coast.

Just did an inspection on the plants - some minor leaf burn on the tops but nothing bad. They will easily recover (if we don’t get a hard freeze). Those covers work wonders.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I think it’d be neat to go up to Yellowknife some day to experience that. Wasn’t there a Metallica concert like “Ice fest” up there years ago?

Would also like to go to Finland some day and see the northern lights from up there.

I enjoy the cold on my own terms, just don’t care to “live it” down here on the Gulf Coast.

Just did an inspection on the plants - some minor leaf burn on the tops but nothing bad. They will easily recover (if we don’t get a hard freeze). Those covers work wonders.

There was. Yellowknife is an awesome town with awesome people.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 251748
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1148 AM CST Fri Jan 25 2019

.AVIATION...
Some cirrus will move across the area today with weak isentropic
upglide generating some mid level ceilings later tonight. Winds
will increase slightly this aftn, decouple this evening and then
back to the E-SE on Saturday as a weak coastal trough tries to
develop. 43

&&

[Kingwood36]

Boy, this place sure is dead

[CRASHWX]

12 news weather in Beaumont made mention of possible wintery mix Tuesday night. I do not have graphics or tweets to back up my claim but he said it on the 4:00 early edition