FEBRUARY 2019: Cold Front & Storm Chances

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BlueJay
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It is likely too early to know what kind of "winter" we will have in February but, like it or not, winter is still here and we need to know what to expect and how to prepare.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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February is our most favored month (historically) for Winter Precip. Here’s to 2-3 MEASURABLE events in February!
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Cpv17
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Wed Jan 23, 2019 12:28 pm February is our most favored month (historically) for Winter Precip. Here’s to 2-3 MEASURABLE events in February!
Fingers crossed. This winter has been the biggest bust ever for me so far.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Cpv17 wrote: Wed Jan 23, 2019 2:10 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Wed Jan 23, 2019 12:28 pm February is our most favored month (historically) for Winter Precip. Here’s to 2-3 MEASURABLE events in February!
Fingers crossed. This winter has been the biggest bust ever for me so far.
Not for me it hasn’t and I’ve been following meteorologists and the weather for 31 years.
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Cpv17
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Wed Jan 23, 2019 3:15 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Wed Jan 23, 2019 2:10 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Wed Jan 23, 2019 12:28 pm February is our most favored month (historically) for Winter Precip. Here’s to 2-3 MEASURABLE events in February!
Fingers crossed. This winter has been the biggest bust ever for me so far.
Not for me it hasn’t and I’ve been following meteorologists and the weather for 31 years.
Yeah, well you’re probably older than me lol I haven’t been following it for half that long. This winter was hyped up way too much. It’s just an average winter honestly to me.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Cpv17 wrote: Wed Jan 23, 2019 5:00 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Wed Jan 23, 2019 3:15 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Wed Jan 23, 2019 2:10 pm

Fingers crossed. This winter has been the biggest bust ever for me so far.
Not for me it hasn’t and I’ve been following meteorologists and the weather for 31 years.
Yeah, well you’re probably older than me lol I haven’t been following it for half that long. This winter was hyped up way too much. It’s just an average winter honestly to me.

My point is I don’t consider this winter a bust. It has been cooler than average and that’s all you can ask for down here.

Asking for snow and ice every Winter is not living in reality.
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Cpv17
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Wed Jan 23, 2019 5:52 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Wed Jan 23, 2019 5:00 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Wed Jan 23, 2019 3:15 pm

Not for me it hasn’t and I’ve been following meteorologists and the weather for 31 years.
Yeah, well you’re probably older than me lol I haven’t been following it for half that long. This winter was hyped up way too much. It’s just an average winter honestly to me.

My point is I don’t consider this winter a bust. It has been cooler than average and that’s all you can ask for down here.

Asking for snow and ice every Winter is not living in reality.
Can you prove that it’s been colder than average? Do you have a map or something like that? To me it’s been normal.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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When I get some free time I’ll go pull NWS data. You do realie that our average high in the coldest part of the year is 63-64, right?

To a lot of people, 50s is average but it’s not for Houston.
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Cpv17
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Wed Jan 23, 2019 6:56 pm When I get some free time I’ll go pull NWS data. You do realie that our average high in the coldest part of the year is 63-64, right?

To a lot of people, 50s is average but it’s not for Houston.
Yesssiirr, but there’s been a lot of lows that have been 10-15 degrees above average cuz of the progressive pattern.
CrashTestDummy
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Fingers crossed that it WARMS and dries out in February! Most of the yard is still under water from yesterday's rains. We _just_ got to the point we could walk to the back of the property without stepping in water.
Gene Beaird,
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texoz
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Wed Jan 23, 2019 5:52 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Wed Jan 23, 2019 5:00 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Wed Jan 23, 2019 3:15 pm

Not for me it hasn’t and I’ve been following meteorologists and the weather for 31 years.
Yeah, well you’re probably older than me lol I haven’t been following it for half that long. This winter was hyped up way too much. It’s just an average winter honestly to me.

My point is I don’t consider this winter a bust. It has been cooler than average and that’s all you can ask for down here.

Asking for snow and ice every Winter is not living in reality.
Here in ATX (Mabry) both December (0.7 above) and January (0.4 above) have been slightly above average. November (climatological fall) was definitely below average at -4.2 the norm.

Interesting to note that in a few years the "normal period" that NOAA uses to compare temps will shift. It's currently using 1981-2010 time period. The 1991-2020 period will have a significantly warmer base number.
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srainhoutx
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The Climate Prediction Center Outlook for Week 3 and Week 4 suggest ENSO Neutral conditions are likely and a persistent West Coast Ridge and a rather deep trough situated to the East of the Rockies. Interesting to see the CPC suggest colder than normal temperatures across the Southern Plains and above normal rainfall across the Southern half of Texas.

Prognostic Discussion for Week 3-4 Temperature and Experimental Precipitation Outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300PM EST Fri Jan 25 2019

Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Feb 09 2019-Fri Feb 22 2019

ENSO-neutral conditions are currently present over the tropical Pacific Ocean. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across most of the Pacific Ocean. The patterns of convection and winds are mostly near average over the tropical Pacific. The CPC 200-hPa velocity potential based and RMM-based MJO indices indicate the MJO signal quickly propagated east from Africa to the Maritime Continent during mid-January. Dynamical ensemble model forecasts indicate the enhanced phase of the MJO signal progressing east across the West Pacific during the next two weeks. The Week 3-4 temperature and precipitation outlooks rely primarily on dynamical model guidance from the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS), ECMWF and JMA operational ensemble prediction systems and the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX), an experimental multi-model ensemble (MME) of both operational and experimental dynamical models as well as statistical model guidance that uses correlations between indices for major modes of climate variability, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the temperature and precipitation over North America. The potential evolution of climate conditions from forecasts for Week-2 are also considered.

Dynamical model guidance from the various models is broadly consistent, depicting a trough over the Aleutians, while anomalous ridging is forecast over the western CONUS and extending northward through mainland Alaska. Downstream anomalous troughing is anticipated over the eastern CONUS. The ECMWF and JMA ensemble means favor near-normal 500-hPa height anomalies over Hawaii, while the CFS indicates negative 500-hPa height anomalies over Hawaii.

The Week 3-4 temperature outlook indicates increased probabilities of above-normal temperatures for the western half of the CONUS, with the greatest probabilities along the West Coast, supported by dynamical model forecasts, and in particular the SubX MME. Below-normal temperatures are most likely over the eastern half of the CONUS and parts of the Southern Plains, as indicated by the CFS, ECMWF and Subx MME. Anomalous ridging and positive 500-hPa height anomalies increase the chances of above normal temperatures over Alaska, with the greatest probabilities over the southeastern Alaska, consistent with most dynamical model forecasts.

With a mean ridge over western North America in dynamical model forecasts and northerly flow over much of the central and eastern CONUS west of a predicted trough axis, below normal precipitation is most likely over a broad area of the CONUS. Enhanced odds for above normal precipitation are indicated across southern Texas, supported by most dynamical precipitation tools and the Subx MME. Mean troughing over the Aleutian Islands in dynamical model forecasts leads to likely above normal precipitation for much of the southern coast of Alaska and the Alaska Panhandle, supported by precipitation forecasts from the ECMWF and JMA ensembles and the SubX MME.

Probabilistic forecasts from the SubX MME indicate likely above normal temperatures for the southeast islands, and near normal temperatures for the northwest islands. Consensus probability forecasts from the SubX MME indicate below normal precipitation is likely across the Hawaiian Islands, consistent with the low-frequency state over the tropical Pacific.
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01252019 CPC Week 3 to 4 Outlook WK34temp.gif
01252019 CPC Week 3 to 4 Outlook WK34prcp.gif
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srainhoutx
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A Hemispheric Pattern reshuffle is looking possible as February begins. The Arctic Oscillation has become negative and the forecast suggest a much below negative state may be likely.
01272019 AO ao_sprd2.gif
Mike Ventrice of WSI tweeted this morning that the Pacific North American Oscillation looks to go negative via the European model schemes. We will see if this potential Pattern Reshuffle offers any changes to our sensible weather down here in Texas, Louisiana and along the Gulf Coast.

Michael Ventrice‏Verified account @MJVentrice · 33m33 minutes ago
Interesting twist... Models are trending in favor of a robust -PNA. For what the PNA loading pattern looks like: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ding.shtml

01272019 Mike Ventrice PNA WSI Dx63ZL7XgAA0jVo.jpg
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Ptarmigan
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Wed Jan 23, 2019 12:28 pm February is our most favored month (historically) for Winter Precip. Here’s to 2-3 MEASURABLE events in February!
The heaviest snow events occurred in February; 1895 and 1960.

Houston Snow
http://www.wxresearch.com/snowhou.htm
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srainhoutx
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Looking like a warmer and somewhat dreary early February start with the possibility fog, particularly Sunday through the first part of next week. Those cooler Gulf shelf water temperatures and warmer surface temperature over land are ideal for Sea/Bay Fog. Tis the Fog season by the way.

The ensembles do continue to advertise a switch in the pattern to that of a deeper Western trough and a Ridge along the East Coast as the first full week of February begins. February can be a month of extremes, so I wouldn't get too excited about warm air sticking around. Some of that building cold air in Western Canada may make its presence known down here in Texas the second week of February.
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cperk
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srainhoutx wrote: Tue Jan 29, 2019 8:33 am Looking like a warmer and somewhat dreary early February start with the possibility fog, particularly Sunday through the first part of next week. Those cooler Gulf shelf water temperatures and warmer surface temperature over land are ideal for Sea/Bay Fog. Tis the Fog season by the way.

The ensembles do continue to advertise a switch in the pattern to that of a deeper Western trough and a Ridge along the East Coast as the first full week of February begins. February can be a month of extremes, so I wouldn't get too excited about warm air sticking around. Some of that building cold air in Western Canada may make its presence known down here in Texas the second week of February.
Careful there my friend our cold weather naysayers and warm weather lover members will be ordering their voodoo dolls of you with extra long pins. :D
BlueJay
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cperk wrote: Tue Jan 29, 2019 9:04 am
srainhoutx wrote: Tue Jan 29, 2019 8:33 am Looking like a warmer and somewhat dreary early February start with the possibility fog, particularly Sunday through the first part of next week. Those cooler Gulf shelf water temperatures and warmer surface temperature over land are ideal for Sea/Bay Fog. Tis the Fog season by the way.

The ensembles do continue to advertise a switch in the pattern to that of a deeper Western trough and a Ridge along the East Coast as the first full week of February begins. February can be a month of extremes, so I wouldn't get too excited about warm air sticking around. Some of that building cold air in Western Canada may make its presence known down here in Texas the second week of February.
Careful there my friend our cold weather naysayers and warm weather lover members will be ordering their voodoo dolls of you with extra long pins. :D
No we won't, cperk. We just like warmer temperatures. ;)
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Texaspirate11
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Are we done with winter yet? Not a February fan at all.
My poor son is up in Minneapolis and they are throwing up the white flag...
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redneckweather
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We will have a couple sharp cold fronts after the first week in February and that will be it (nothing out of the ordinary and no winter precip...Fort Worth might get a little). Soon after Valentine's Day, strong signs of Spring will start to appear right on cue. The pattern since winter started has not changed as models have showed the arctic coming....always 2 plus weeks out only to lose it. Here we are again with models showing the cold....2 weeks out. lol This will not change through February. We have 4 weeks left, that's it. Sure, we might have a couple half decent fronts in March but nothing has ever happened down here in March. I would absolutely love to eat crow but....4 SHORT WEEKS LEFT.
stormlover
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lol you can't trust long range models,We still have plenty of time...you can't talk abot what's going to happen in 2 weeks nobody knows.. we can say the GFS fv3 run from this morning show sleet and freezing most of Texas lol
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