January 2019 - Active Progressive WX Pattern Ahead

[mcheer23]

18z GFS is identical to the euro. Should be a fun model watching week.

[Kingwood36]

18z GFS is identical to the euro. Should be a fun model watching week.

Meaning a glancing blow?

[redneckweather]

The area I have outlined in red will be on the move but it will be coming in on a southeast trajectory giving us a glancing blow. The blue area is where we need to see these kind of negative temps to come south straight down the lee of the Rockies and deep into Texas.

[Kingwood36]

Stupid question but why does it always see. Like the cold goes to the southeast and never straight down?..sorry for such a stupid question just trying to learn a little bit

[cperk]

18z GFS is identical to the euro. Should be a fun model watching week.

Meaning a glancing blow?

The 18Z GFS is a direct hit covering the entire state.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

18z GFS is identical to the euro. Should be a fun model watching week.

Meaning a glancing blow?

The 18Z GFS is a direct hit covering the entire state.

I wouldn’t call it a direct hit in terms of severity. Knoxville stays below 0 for 24 hours and Atlanta approaches 0. Miami north burbs get to freezing.

Yes, we get cold, down to 20, so in terms of averages, it is quite cold, but it’s still a glancing blow in terms of the core of the cold.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

The area I have outlined in red will be on the move but it will be coming in on a southeast trajectory giving us a glancing blow. The blue area is where we need to see these kind of negative temps to come south straight down the lee of the Rockies and deep into Texas.

20190118_164922.jpg

In the current background state, that is correct.

However, we can get the red area in EPO tank, neutral PNA and positive NAO. See last January.

[wxman57]

The cold front is showing up now on surface obs. The source region is Kansas and Nebraska, just recycled old Canadian air for this weekend's front. No new Canadian air for Wednesday's front, either. No Arctic front unless you consider Nebraska the Arctic. You'll have to look farther out for any real chance of snow in NE or SE TX. The 18Z GFS indicates some fresh Canadian air, perhaps Arctic origin, arriving beyond 240 hrs (night of the 28th). Euro agrees with that date of colder air arriving (surprisingly enough). Look to the end of the month and beyond for any snow potential in our are. Don't get your hopes up for this weekend or Wednesday, it's highly unlikely we'll see any snow.

[Ptarmigan]

The cold front is showing up now on surface obs. The source region is Kansas and Nebraska, just recycled old Canadian air for this weekend's front. No new Canadian air for Wednesday's front, either. No Arctic front unless you consider Nebraska the Arctic. You'll have to look farther out for any real chance of snow in NE or SE TX. The 18Z GFS indicates some fresh Canadian air, perhaps Arctic origin, arriving beyond 240 hrs (night of the 28th). Euro agrees with that date of colder air arriving (surprisingly enough). Look to the end of the month and beyond for any snow potential in our are. Don't get your hopes up for this weekend or Wednesday, it's highly unlikely we'll see any snow.

It would be nice if the Arctic was closer.

[unome]

2 AM, mid-Jan, 70 degrees - but the front has arrived & dropped 7 degrees in 20 min

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.php?sid=KDWH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
212 AM CST SAT JAN 19 2019

TXZ178-179-199-190900-
San Jacinto TX-Polk TX-Montgomery TX-
212 AM CST SAT JAN 19 2019

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE

At 211 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles east of New Waverly, or 11 miles northeast of Willis, moving
northeast at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Northern Conroe, Willis, Livingston, Shepherd, Panorama Village,
Coldspring, Goodrich, Lake Livingston State Park, West Livingston and
Evergreen.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

DFW got a dusting of snow early this morning and parts of Collin county got 1-2 inches.

[Kingwood36]

DFW got a dusting of snow early this morning and parts of Collin county got 1-2 inches.

Didnt the models say they werent suppose to get anything tho

[jasons2k]

Already down to 47F here. With the wind and clouds moving in, it’s definitely not a fun day to be outside. Not looking forward to covering everything later on but I need this wind to die down some. Forecast low for me tonight is 30.

[ccbluewater]

DFW got a dusting of snow early this morning and parts of Collin county got 1-2 inches.

Didnt the models say they werent suppose to get anything tho

HRRR did pretty well for this morning up there I would say.

This wind is brutal! Glad bounce house was cancelled for today so I dont have to worry about it blowing away.. kids aren't as thrilled, however!

[MontgomeryCoWx]

DFW got a dusting of snow early this morning and parts of Collin county got 1-2 inches.

Didnt the models say they werent suppose to get anything tho

HRRR did pretty well for this morning up there I would say.

This wind is brutal! Glad bounce house was cancelled for today so I dont have to worry about it blowing away.. kids aren't as thrilled, however!

Yep, globals sucked but HRRR and RAP did well under 18 hours.... wxman57 taunted them yesterday about wishing for snow and “it’s not happening”...

[DoctorMu]

Serious advection with 35-40 mph gusts in BCS.

GFS (6z) and Canadian (0z) still have a tongue of snow/mix licking the northern and NE counties of the Houston area early Wed. Brenham through Lufkin. 12z runs in progress now.

[stormlover]

Don’t see it happening

[redneckweather]

A couple of pics a buddy sent to me who lives in Sherman. Beautiful...

[Cpv17]

Don’t see it happening

DFW didn’t see it happening today either.. just saying.

[Kingwood36]

I love when wxman57 says "no chance"..then boom it happens lol