January 2019 - Active Progressive WX Pattern Ahead

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 181319
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
719 AM CST Fri Jan 18 2019

.AVIATION...
Low ceilings and areas of fog will prevail this morning but
stronger winds at the surface and aloft should allow for enough
mixing to produce MVFR/VFR ceilings later today. A strong capping
inversion will remain in place but moisture profiles look
sufficiently deep to offer up a few showers later today. A cold
front will cross the area between 07-11z and a broken line of
shra/tsra will be possible with a wind shift to the W-NW in the
wake of the front. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CST Fri Jan 18 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Changeable weather over the next several days with a couple of
fairly strong cold fronts moving across the area. Big changes
coming with passage of cold front tonight. Another front to bring
more rain to the area Tuesday into Wednesday.

Today and Tonight...
Another mild day on tap with increasing onshore flow and
temperatures rising back up to near 70. More humid air mass will
push farther inland with the entire area characterized by surface
dewpoints in the 60s by this afternoon. Relatively warm...humid
air mass remains over the area this evening in warm sector ahead
of an approaching cold front. Scattered showers and maybe a
thunderstorm possible this afternoon as model soundings show
several hundred joules of MUCAPE with that increasing low level
moisture. Have kept in mention of patchy fog everwhere early...but
all day and evening near the coast as could see a sea fog
component as surface dewpoints exceed water temperatures.
Overnight cold front sweeps through from NW to SE. All convective
allowing models show a line of showers and possibly thunderstorms developing
along front over SE Texas after midnight then pushing quickly
offshore by daybreak. Given thin fast moving line would expect
rainfall amounts generally half inch or less.

Saturday and Sunday...
Breezy and colder Saturday with highs in upper 40s north...50s
elsewhere. The wind will make it feel colder than that. Saturday
night expecting a freeze most areas away from the water...although
not a hard freeze that was expected from model runs earlier in
the week. Lows should range from upper 20s north to lower 30s
south...but staying above freezing near and downstream of water. A
wind advisory may be needed some areas for Saturday. See marine
discussion for watches...warnings and advisories over the waters.
Surface high builds in on Sunday with diminishing winds and
continued cool conditions.

Monday through Friday...
Flow becomes onshore advecting in a warmer more humid airmass
starting Monday and continuing Tuesday. ECMWF and GFS models in
fairly close agreement with a cold front pushing from NW to SE
across the area on Tuesday...bringing more showers and possibly a
thunderstorm. Stong offshore flow expected again on Wednesday
with colder windy conditions behind the front. Should continue
cool and dry for late next week. 18

MARINE...
Winds will back to the south this morning and gradually increase as
another surface low develops in the TX panhandle. A moderate to
strong onshore flow is expected tonight and a SCEC or SCA will
likely be required. The low over the panhandle will drag a cold
front across the coastal waters late tonight as the low moves toward
the Ohio valley. A strong offshore flow will develop in the wake of
the front and will issue a Gale Watch for the Gulf waters. An SCA
will be required for the adjacent bays and will issue that later
today. The strong offshore winds will push water away from the coast
and a Low Water Advisory may also be needed Sat night into Sunday.
High pressure will be east of the area Sunday night and onshore
winds will return. Moderate to strong onshore winds are expected
Monday night into Tuesday ahead of the next storm system. Another
strong cold front will push across the coastal waters Tuesday night.
Strong offshore winds in the wake of this front will again prompt an
SCA or possibly a Gale Watch.

Still watching to see if sea fog develops. Dew points are in the
lower 60`s and waters are in the upper 50`s so there is some
potential for sea fog as surface winds back to the south. Web
cameras and obs don`t show fog over the water and will continue to
watch trends. Fog threat will end with the cold frontal passage
later tonight. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 72 45 50 32 53 / 30 50 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 71 53 55 33 54 / 40 70 10 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 65 56 57 38 51 / 30 70 10 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for the
following zones: Austin...Brazoria Islands...Brazos...
Burleson...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal
Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Galveston Island and Bolivar
Peninsula...Matagorda Islands...Waller...Washington.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for
the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport
to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...18
Aviation/Marine...43

[harp]

A1CC08D9-6535-4003-8996-1BBE13F812F1.png6B6AE20D-AB27-4B74-811A-E565133C6CF2.pngD1F741B3-3F03-4DF1-A7AE-EBCC3B10754D.png81A1A11F-4744-45DD-9833-04D3ECAADCBE.png5 Days
6-11 days
11-16 days
16 day snowmean
JB SAID MODELS BEGINNING TO SHIW BUG ARTIC INVASION AROUND 26th to 31st

When did he say this?

[CRASHWX]

[quote=CRASHWX post_id=78144 time=<a href="tel:1547818024">1547818024</a> user_id=11364]
A1CC08D9-6535-4003-8996-1BBE13F812F1.png6B6AE20D-AB27-4B74-811A-E565133C6CF2.pngD1F741B3-3F03-4DF1-A7AE-EBCC3B10754D.png81A1A11F-4744-45DD-9833-04D3ECAADCBE.png5 Days
6-11 days
11-16 days
16 day snowmean
JB SAID MODELS BEGINNING TO SHIW BUG ARTIC INVASION AROUND 26th to 31st

When did he say this?
[/quote]

A1CC08D9-6535-4003-8996-1BBE13F812F1.png6B6AE20D-AB27-4B74-811A-E565133C6CF2.pngD1F741B3-3F03-4DF1-A7AE-EBCC3B10754D.png81A1A11F-4744-45DD-9833-04D3ECAADCBE.png5 Days
6-11 days
11-16 days
16 day snowmean
JB SAID MODELS BEGINNING TO SHIW BUG ARTIC INVASION AROUND 26th to 31st

When did he say this?

This mornings public update on weatherbell

[CRASHWX]

Wow I need to look at my post for correct spelling! Lol FAT THUMB SYNDROME

[wxman57]

You have to be careful with those snow accumulation maps or the precip-type maps. I notice that the GFS is showing snow between College Station & Waco on Wednesday morning. However, if you look at the predicted sounding, it also has the freezing level way above 700mb (close to 12,000 ft up). All the precip is forming in mid-level clouds then falling through a quite warm layer all the way down to the surface. This is NOT a setup for snow across SE Texas unless the air was about 10 deg colder.

One problem I've pointed out is that there is no front coming down - not Arctic, and not even Canadian. If we were going to have a cold front move through Texas tomorrow, then you'd think it would show up somewhere between Texas and Canada. It doesn't. When the upper trof passes, it will drag down some of the highly-modified Canadian air over the Plains, which really isn't very cold for January. We need a colder source region for any snow here.

[kyzsl51]

You have to be careful with those snow accumulation maps or the precip-type maps. I notice that the GFS is showing snow between College Station & Waco on Wednesday morning. However, if you look at the predicted sounding, it also has the freezing level way above 700mb (close to 12,000 ft up). All the precip is forming in mid-level clouds then falling through a quite warm layer all the way down to the surface. This is NOT a setup for snow across SE Texas unless the air was about 10 deg colder.

One problem I've pointed out is that there is no front coming down - not Arctic, and not even Canadian. If we were going to have a cold front move through Texas tomorrow, then you'd think it would show up somewhere between Texas and Canada. It doesn't. When the upper trof passes, it will drag down some of the highly-modified Canadian air over the Plains, which really isn't very cold for January. We need a colder source region for any snow here.

Thanks for that explanation! Any thoughts on what to expect the last week of January or early February? I know models were showing some very cold air entering the US. Looks like alot of the models now are moving the bulk of it east. Thanks!

[wxman57]

Here's an example from the latest GFS. I selected an area in the middle of its snow prediction next Wednesday morning. Sounding below indicates precip forming in sub-freezing air between about 12,000 and 25,000 ft (mid-level clouds). Such precip would be light snow. However, it then falls through a layer of above-freezing air. True, sometimes if the precip is heavy enough it can lower the temperature of the air below as it saturates with moisture, but that's not what the GFS is indicating.

[Texaspirate11]

Thank you wxman57 my also warm fan person...I'm just waiting around for summer....
I appreciate your knowledge and information.

[Cpv17]

12z GFS trending better with the trough. Digs it deeper into Mexico and a tad stronger too. Nice! It has about 1-2” of rain widespread for next Wednesday with some light accumulations of snow towards central Texas. A few degrees colder and we’re in business.





That’s some very cold moderate to heavy rains over the area.

[mcheer23]

12z GFS trending better with the trough. Digs it deeper into Mexico and a tad stronger too. Nice!

Yup. We'll see how the Euro and ensembles look in a few hours.

[harp]

Yeah, ,but it's just flat out not cold enough....

[Cpv17]

Yeah, ,but it's just flat out not cold enough....

It’s 5 days out. It could easily trend colder or warmer. Regardless, this is looking to be the best chance for a winter storm we’ve had all season. It’s not that far off. Keep your head up!

[harp]

LOL! I'm fine. I would have liked this run to be colder with all the precip showing up.

[Cpv17]

LOL! I'm fine. I would have liked this run to be colder with all the precip showing up.

It has plenty of time to trend colder. The precip showed up more because the trough dug further into Mexico and deepened. This 12z run was actually very positive overall.

[stormlover]

don't get yalls hopes up fellows!!!! I have gotten my hopes up a ton with winter weather lol

[harp]

Believe me, I'm not! LOL!

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 181611
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1011 AM CST Fri Jan 18 2019

.SHORT TERM...

The main story this morning is the fog that continues to linger
across the area. It will not likely be until the LLJ can get
cranking enough to cause stronger mixing to erode low level clouds
so dense fog advisory has been extended until noon. Visibility
has improved in some areas but decreased in other areas of SE
Texas. Best plan was to expand the advisory to new areas of dense
fog and leave areas already in the advisory even if visibility has
improved. Surface low should deepen in the Texas Panhandle to
help increase winds and erode fog.

Warm air advection pattern and moisture advection should keep
some showers in the forecast for today. Forecast still looks on
track with the frontal passage tonight and now a very weak line of
showers/storms to form along it in the early morning hours. Low
temperatures look on track but might need to adjust as new
guidance becomes available for 12Z runs.

Overpeck

[mcheer23]

don't get yalls hopes up fellows!!!! I have gotten my hopes up a ton with winter weather lol

I'll still take a cool, raw day in the 40s...

Spring isn't that far away. I need the cold while I can get it.

[don]

The 12z Fv3 Looks interesting
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... eus_21.png

[Cpv17]

Euro now has the trough pretty deep too just like the GFS.