January 2019 - Active Progressive WX Pattern Ahead

[869 Millibars]

with all the rain, hurricanes, and flooding over the past 3 years, I'm starting to think this is the new annual "normal" for our region.

It would be nice if this rainy pattern could extend into the summer.

I was just wondering about the long term forecast for our region last night. I can visualize consistent off and on rain chances lasting through at least the month of May and early June including a couple bouts of severe thunderstorm/tornado events, with one or two being very significant in magnitude. After June rolls around, I can see a very warm and dry weather pattern becoming established across our region. I will be kinda surprised if a rainy pattern persists through the summer months. Though I may be proven wrong in the end, I anticipate we will experience a much wetter pattern the first half of the year followed up with a more dry weather pattern during the second half of the year. Just a gut feeling I'm having at this time, so unfortunately I can't back this prediction up with any meteorological data.

Meanwhile, this persistent southern subtropical jet stream really worries me. This jet stream along with deeper moisture consistently lurking close to our region and the southern tier of the US spells trouble for someone going forward through the rest of this winter into spring. It may not necessarily include Southeast Texas, but I strongly feel some areas are going to eventually face a few very significant, possibly historical, severe weather and/or heavy rain events before all is said and done. We shall see. Meanwhile, everyone have a safe & happy new year and remain weather aware accordingly.

[BlueJay]

Glad the rain stopped. Now let's dry up for a while.

[Cpv17]

Big difference on the ensembles between the EPS and GEFS. EPS keeps hammering the NW with lower heights and a ton of rain flooding the country with mild Pacific air. GEFS flips to a -EPO with building heights over that area along with a -AO which sends some cold air down into the country. I would side with the GEFS right now. It just makes more sense given the SSW and the split of the polar vortex.

[BlueJay]

There is frost on the rooftops and in the flower beds this morning. Brrr! Cold!

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 041742
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1142 AM CST Fri Jan 4 2019


.AVIATION...
Upper low over AR/LA moving away to the east. Across SETX skies
are clear with a western edge of the wrap around shifting into LFK
area. Circulation around the low keeping winds northwesterly and
little gusty at times through early afternoon then should start to
diminish. Overnight light to calm winds which could set the stage
for some patchy fog...probably more of the MIFG type but can`t
rule it out getting into IFR in places mainly the rural sites like
CXO/LBX. Southwesterly flow returns tomorrow morning.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CST Fri Jan 4 2019/

DISCUSSION...
The upper level storm system that brought us all the rain is
departing to the east. Other than a few wrap around clouds, look
for drier and warmer conditions the next couple days as surface
and upper level high pressure builds in its wake.

Onshore winds to resume late Saturday as the surface high departs
to the east. Chances of fog should increase Saturday night and
Sunday night. Upper ridging will become slightly suppressed later
this weekend and early next week as the next western trof moves
across the Plains and Midwest. It`s associated frontal boundary
should make its wake way into northern portions of se Tx Monday
night and Tuesday but will gradually be losing its support for
southward push. Combination of Pacific and Gulf moisture (PW`s
1-5-1.8") will be pooling ahead of this boundary & disturbances/vorticity
riding in the sw flow above the ridge may be enough to support
some iso/sct precip Monday night-Wednesday but overall instability
and forcing are not looking very impressive.

By late Wednesday we`ll probably see some drier air try to backdoor
into the region and the upper ridge briefly try to reestablish
itself. But the next trof/storm system approaches on Friday bringing
our next shot of precip ahead of its cold front. There are slight
differences in model timing/details at this point. 47

HYDROLOGY...
Rivers are mostly behaving as forecast, but with a few exceptions.
Peach Creek near Splendora climbed into moderate flood stage overnight.
Levels have continued to very slow rise, but latest data indicates
it may be trying to steady itself out the past 2 hours. We`ll be
keeping an eye on that location and also Caney Creek which is also
rising close to minor flood stage. 47

MARINE...
Winds/seas over the coastal waters decreased overnight but are fore-
cast to increase briefly once again this morning (with another surge
of slightly cooler air). The SCA flags have been lowered to SCEC for
these locations through noon. Otherwise...we should be seeing mostly
light offshore winds this afternoon through Saturday afternoon. Low-
level winds north are expected to shift to the south as surface high
pressure moves east of the region. The next cold front may not reach
our coastal waters until Tues. 41

AVIATION...
Some wrap-around high clouds possible over our northern counties and
TAF sites this morning along with perhaps patchy fog across our more
southern sites through sunrise. Otherwise...much improved conditions
are expected the rest of the day (and tonight) as the main upper low
moves out of the region. VFR. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 58 39 68 47 71 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 57 40 68 46 71 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 56 49 63 54 68 / 0 0 0 0 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until noon CST today for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...25
Aviation/Marine...45

[Cpv17]

According to the models today, areas in the southern half of the state appear to have a pretty good chance of rain over the next couple weeks..especially south of I-10.

[srainhoutx]

Get out and enjoy this nice weekend weather! Personally I am sick of the cloudy rainy foggy dreary pattern and am ready for this brief Winter Respite. That said it does appear that Hemispheric Pattern is in the process of reshuffling and Winter still has a good 6 to 10 weeks to rear its head across our Region. The CPC Discussion for Week 3 to 4 is a good read explaining the various features and influences of the MJO, Rossby waves, -AO, -NOA and the Stratospheric Warming Event. So many moving parts to follow and yet so important to what our sensible weather may bring.

Prognostic Discussion for Week 3-4 Temperature and Experimental Precipitation Outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300PM EST Fri Jan 04 2019

Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Jan 19 2019-Fri Feb 01 2019

The present Weeks 3-4 outlook is issued amidst a number of interesting climatic phenomena that may play substantial roles in the evolving circulation across North America. First, the low frequency state with above-normal sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Pacific continues to persist, though an extended period of enhanced trade winds have reduced positive anomalies across parts of the basin. The subseasonal tropical state appears likely to constructively interfere with the low frequency state in the Pacific, with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) active phase now over the West Pacific. The MJO crossing over the Pacific also has demonstrated implications for helping to drive the Arctic Oscillation (AO) into a negative state due to poleward and vertically propagating Rossby waves emanating from the MJO envelope. A recent major stratospheric warming may also tilt the odds toward a low-frequency negative NAO pattern. Confidence is highest in the tropical influences on the forecast (i.e. El Nino, MJO, and resulting extratropical response), with possible stratospheric influences constructively interfering. The CFS and ECMWF are in remarkably good agreement on the evolution toward a colder patter over much of the CONUS during the Weeks 3-4 period; the former changing quite a bit from runs initialized earlier this week.

The temperature outlook features an east-west dipole of below- and above-normal temperatures in response to the forecast anomalous ridging near or off the West Coast and troughing over the east-central CONUS. The highest confidence for above-normal temperatures across the CONUS is confined to parts of the Pacific Northwest nearest to the anomalous ridge axis. The MJO would also support anomalous cold focused from the Northern Plains through Northeast, although the typical El Nino response would dampen this signal across the Northern Plains and Great Lakes. The highest probabilities for below-normal temperatures are centered over the Mississippi Valley, where anomalous troughing is anticipated linked to the potential negative AO state combined with the lagged response to MJO convection. Equal chances is indicated over parts of the Southeast based on the consensus of operational dynamical models. Boosted chances for above-normal temperatures are also featured across the entirety of Alaska, with highest confidence across southern portions of the state, tied to forecast anomalous southerly flow.

The precipitation forecast trends drier than normal for much of the CONUS, tied to the anticipated ridge-trough pattern helping to keep the Pacific jet away from the West coast, while the trough over the East imports continental polar airmasses that are relatively dry. One exception is above-normal precipitation being favored from the Gulf Coast through Mid-Atlantic, with a mean frontal zone possible here and increased storm activity possible along the baroclinic zone setting up along the eastern seaboard. While not directly implicated, this circulation could increase odds for a substantial winter storm across the major metropolitan areas in the East. Above-normal precipitation is slightly favored over the High Plains of Montana, where periods of upslope precipitation become more likely as the period progresses. Aforementioned anomalous southerly flow over southern Alaska increases the odds for above-normal precipitation there, though the panhandle is more likely to see below-normal precipitation downstream of the forecast 500-hPa ridge.

[redneckweather]

As is typical for us down here every single winter...

We watch the models and the teasing of the extended range showing a possible wintry mix. More times than not it never materializes (we just can't get the cold air down here 9 times out of 10). That's what we get for living in a sub-tropical climate. Once in a blue moon reports filter in of a snowflake being spotted or even a 30 second sleet shower and the board lights up with school kids screaming with delight!

I see the remainder of the winter remaining the same, which is normal for us down here...more cool dreary weather, the kind that gets in your bones. What is not normal and is extremely rare is seeing lots of big fluffy snowflakes falling from a low ceiling of wintry clouds. It's a pleasant thought but not a realistic one.

The loud chirping from our local mets and weather enthusiasts last month talking about good chances of wintry weather for us in January has now become a whisper.

The holidays are gone and for most of us, hunting season ends tomorrow. You can have this miserable weather...come on Spring Time!!

[cperk]

From what i'm hearing don't be fooled winter may still make an appearance.

[snowman65]

I think winter is done around here, IMO. Let's just move on the spring and hopefully dry out.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I think winter is done around here, IMO. Let's just move on the spring and hopefully dry out.

We aren’t even halfway thru Winter yet. We still have plenty of time.

[stormlover]

Snowman why do u think it’s over? Give us some reasons why you think that

[CRASHWX]

Jan 15 through Feb and into Mar...gonna rock! Every indicator pointing that way. We even have the past to support the present. In the years past when these atmospheric indicators have shown up as they are now...IT GOT COLD AND NASTY. Srain has tried to communicate this in my opinion but folk have to understand that the atmosphere is a massive and miraculous machine and it does completely rearrange itself over night or turn on a dime.

[cperk]

Jan 15 through Feb and into Mar...gonna rock! Every indicator pointing that way. We even have the past to support the present. In the years past when these atmospheric indicators have shown up as they are now...IT GOT COLD AND NASTY. Srain has tried to communicate this in my opinion but folk have to understand that the atmosphere is a massive and miraculous machine and it does completely rearrange itself over night or turn on a dime.

Well said.

[cperk]

Snowman why do u think it’s over? Give us some reasons why you think that

I also want to hear snowman's reasoning.

[harp]

The GFS now starts dumping cold air out of Canada southward towards the end of the run. The 12Z.

[sambucol]

How cold and any winter precip, Harp? When?

[harp]

How cold and any winter precip, Harp? When?

Dry at this time. It's around the January 21st/22nd time line. Not teens or anything like that, just certainly cold enough for winter weather lovers. We need the cold in place first. At least, for THIS run, it's starting to show what has been discussed by srain and others.

[CRASHWX]

Euro looks like it’s trying to move towards the MJO...like I said when the atmospheric pattern is trying make a very big shift it can take a while to evolve...the changes that are being telegraphed are just that. Gotta keep in Mind this is not a quick buckle in the Jet that flattens back out with the passage of a troph. Gonna be slow corrections in the models until things finish evolving. Now it’s all about waiting to see if all the indicators line up...the past sheds light and there are many examples of what can happen but it is the global weather pattern and it has a mind of its own at times...so to speak lol

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I’ve found over the years that our cold weather lovers emotionally hedge when things aren’t going like they want them too. LOL.

That’s okay as we all tend to do this with things we are passionate about. It also leads us to make statements that aren’t based in fact.

I made a longer post about this on storm2k that did bring facts into play. I feel confident that The last two weeks of Jan and Feb will bring us cold. Now we just need the moisture to cooperate and that is always a shot in the dark.