December 2018: Sunshine Returns New Years Eve
-
CRASHWX
- Posts: 266
- Joined: Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:33 pm
- Location: Hardin County / North of Beaumont
- Contact:
Just example on Joe...nailed Harvey, Sandy, Katrina, about every snow event in our area and did all well in advance...just my opinion he is legit but he does have pretty impressive track record and certainly is paid well by likes of some very large clients who put a tremendous amount of trust in his ability...that said after years of lurking here and other weather forums there guys on this forum that I trust just as much....again JMO
CRASHWX -
redneckweather
- Posts: 1058
- Joined: Mon Feb 08, 2010 7:29 pm
- Location: Montgomery, Texas
- Contact:
I'm sorry but did I miss the wind that was heavily forecasted the past few days? I'm looking outside and the flags are slack. lol
I guess you missed it, it was gusting up to 32mph at Montgomery County Airport yesterday eveningredneckweather wrote: ↑Fri Dec 14, 2018 8:26 am I'm sorry but did I miss the wind that was heavily forecasted the past few days? I'm looking outside and the flags are slack. lol
Conroe is currently west at 10 https://www.weather.gov/hgx/
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... suedby=HGX
Code: Select all
Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
451 AM CST Fri Dec 14 2018
...24 Hour Peak Wind Reports...
Location Speed Time/Date
...Texas...
...Austin County...
San Felipe 33 MPH 0713 PM 12/13
...Brazoria County...
1 ESE Freeport 37 MPH 0808 PM 12/13
1 NE Quintana 36 MPH 0824 PM 12/13
9 SW Jones Creek 36 MPH 0829 PM 12/13
Clover Field Airport 35 MPH 0845 PM 12/13
6 SSE Danbury 34 MPH 0928 PM 12/13
4 NW West Columbia 32 MPH 0745 PM 12/13
Brazoria County Airport 31 MPH 0340 AM 12/13
3 SW Alvin 24 MPH 0833 PM 12/13
1 S West Columbia 20 MPH 0826 PM 12/13
2 ENE Fresno 19 MPH 0847 PM 12/13
Lake Jackson 16 MPH 0920 PM 12/13
West Columbia 11 MPH 0905 PM 12/13
...Brazos County...
Easterwood Field Airport 35 MPH 0751 PM 12/13
Coulter Fld Ap 30 MPH 0655 PM 12/13
2 ESE Bryan 23 MPH 0708 PM 12/13
1 S College Station 20 MPH 0415 PM 12/13
...Burleson County...
4 NNE Snook 27 MPH 0640 PM 12/13
Caldwell 21 MPH 0351 AM 12/14
1 SSE Somerville 11 MPH 1000 PM 12/13
...Chambers County...
8 SSW Stowell 35 MPH 0712 AM 12/13
1 WSW Old River-winfree 19 MPH 0253 PM 12/13
Anahuac 16 MPH 0546 AM 12/13
3 SSW Mont Belvieu 15 MPH 0105 AM 12/14
...Colorado County...
6 NE Eagle Lake 33 MPH 0735 PM 12/13
4 E Weimar 27 MPH 0645 PM 12/13
...Fort Bend County...
1 SE Missouri City 39 MPH 0823 PM 12/13
2 SW Rosenberg 36 MPH 0745 PM 12/13
Sugar Land Mun Ap 33 MPH 0812 PM 12/13
1 WNW Arcola 30 MPH 0835 PM 12/13
3 W Rosenberg 29 MPH 0920 PM 12/13
4 WSW First Colony 28 MPH 0757 PM 12/13
2 SE Richmond 23 MPH 0801 PM 12/13
4 ENE Fulshear 22 MPH 0735 PM 12/13
Stafford 22 MPH 0805 PM 12/13
5 SSE Katy 20 MPH 1117 AM 12/13
3 SSE Katy 20 MPH 0745 PM 12/13
...Galveston County...
Scholes Intl At Galveston 39 MPH 0911 PM 12/13
4 ENE Texas City 34 MPH 0535 AM 12/13
19 E San Leon 33 MPH 1245 AM 12/14
2 E La Marque 33 MPH 0957 PM 12/13
2 ENE Hillcrest 29 MPH 0511 AM 12/13
2 SW Kemah 26 MPH 0329 PM 12/13
2 WSW Santa Fe 25 MPH 0855 PM 12/13
La Marque 25 MPH 1045 PM 12/13
Santa Fe 22 MPH 0855 PM 12/13
1 W Kemah 22 MPH 1007 PM 12/13
...Grimes County...
8 SE Navasota 31 MPH 0715 PM 12/13
Navasota 13 MPH 0650 PM 12/13
...Harris County...
Nassau Bay 41 MPH 0856 PM 12/13
William P Hobby Airport 38 MPH 0830 PM 12/13
4 SSW Pasadena 36 MPH 0850 PM 12/13
1 SW Taylor Lake Village 35 MPH 0907 PM 12/13
2 WNW Bunker Hill Village 34 MPH 0400 PM 12/13
Houston Intercontinental 33 MPH 0821 PM 12/13
2 E West University Place 32 MPH 0835 PM 12/13
David Wayne Hooks Memorial A 31 MPH 0755 PM 12/13
7 SW Jersey Village 31 MPH 0800 PM 12/13
1 ENE Morgan`s Point 31 MPH 0930 PM 12/13
9 WNW Jersey Village 30 MPH 0757 PM 12/13
6 WSW Jersey Village 29 MPH 0803 PM 12/13
9 ESE Waller 29 MPH 0738 PM 12/13
Webster 28 MPH 0901 PM 12/13
2 NNW West University Place 28 MPH 0817 PM 12/13
1 NE Houston 28 MPH 0848 PM 12/13
1 NE South Houston 28 MPH 0852 PM 12/13
2 NW Houston 28 MPH 0846 PM 12/13
3 SSE Aldine 27 MPH 0814 PM 12/13
5 NW Sheldon 26 MPH 0920 PM 12/13
Clear Lake Shores 26 MPH 1145 PM 12/13
1 SSW Piney Point Village 26 MPH 0857 PM 12/13
2 S Houston 25 MPH 0917 PM 12/13
5 NW Mission Bend 23 MPH 0800 PM 12/13
9 SW Tomball 23 MPH 0752 PM 12/13
9 WNW Jersey Village 22 MPH 0748 PM 12/13
3 WNW Taylor Lake Village 22 MPH 0219 PM 12/13
Piney Point Village 22 MPH 0410 AM 12/14
Spring Valley 22 MPH 0800 PM 12/13
4 SSE Aldine 22 MPH 0814 PM 12/13
3 NW Hedwig Village 22 MPH 0240 AM 12/13
2 E West University Place 22 MPH 0820 PM 12/13
3 ENE Pearland 21 MPH 0402 AM 12/14
2 NNW Waller 21 MPH 0310 AM 12/14
Taylor Lake Village 21 MPH 0301 PM 12/13
4 WSW The Woodlands 21 MPH 0805 PM 12/13
5 N Fresno 21 MPH 0819 PM 12/13
5 ESE Southside Place 21 MPH 0835 PM 12/13
1 NNW Hilshire Village 21 MPH 0950 PM 12/13
2 NE Pearland 21 MPH 0840 PM 12/13
3 WNW Crosby 20 MPH 0400 AM 12/14
6 WSW Jersey Village 20 MPH 0326 AM 12/14
3 NE Jersey Village 20 MPH 1115 AM 12/13
1 N Cloverleaf 20 MPH 0854 PM 12/13
4 ENE Katy 20 MPH 0739 PM 12/13
...Houston County...
Crockett 21 MPH 0415 PM 12/13
9 W Crockett 21 MPH 0416 AM 12/13
3 NE Kennard 15 MPH 0402 PM 12/13
...Jackson County...
7 S Ganado 44 MPH 0736 PM 12/13
9 W La Ward 43 MPH 0751 PM 12/13
6 WSW La Ward 39 MPH 0641 PM 12/13
La Ward 38 MPH 0647 PM 12/13
Ganado 37 MPH 0716 PM 12/13
Edna 33 MPH 0730 PM 12/13
Edna 30 MPH 0629 PM 12/13
5 S La Ward 21 MPH 0701 PM 12/13
...Liberty County...
4 NW Dayton 24 MPH 0622 AM 12/13
4 ENE Cleveland 22 MPH 0955 PM 12/13
3 NE Splendora 17 MPH 1000 PM 12/13
...Madison County...
8 SW Madisonville 24 MPH 0611 PM 12/13
...Matagorda County...
Palacios Municipal Airport 38 MPH 0647 PM 12/13
Bay City 36 MPH 0735 PM 12/13
...Montgomery County...
Montgomery County Airport 32 MPH 0813 PM 12/13
5 W Panorama Village 27 MPH 0845 PM 12/13
4 NNW Shenandoah 26 MPH 0903 PM 12/13
2 W Stagecoach 26 MPH 0738 PM 12/13
Oak Ridge North 18 MPH 1240 AM 12/14
5 WNW Willis 17 MPH 0800 PM 12/13
3 WNW The Woodlands 17 MPH 0832 PM 12/13
Oak Ridge North 16 MPH 1240 AM 12/14
4 NW The Woodlands 16 MPH 0819 PM 12/13
...Polk County...
Lake Livingston 22 MPH 1015 PM 12/13
...San Jacinto County...
3 NE Coldspring 32 MPH 0430 AM 12/13
4 N Coldspring 26 MPH 0453 AM 12/13
...Walker County...
Huntsville Municipal Airport 23 MPH 0753 PM 12/13
5 WNW Huntsville 22 MPH 0906 PM 12/13
...Waller County...
6 NNE Prairie View 30 MPH 0730 PM 12/13
4 ENE Brookshire 25 MPH 0255 AM 12/14
3 W Katy 17 MPH 0425 AM 12/14
6 W Stagecoach 12 MPH 0733 PM 12/13
...Washington County...
5 SE Somerville 34 MPH 0653 PM 12/13
Brenham 31 MPH 0635 PM 12/13
6 ESE Burton 21 MPH 0627 PM 12/13
4 NNE Burton 17 MPH 0220 AM 12/14
...Wharton County...
Wharton 32 MPH 0755 PM 12/13
Boling-Iago 31 MPH 0743 PM 12/13
5 W East Bernard 20 MPH 0400 AM 12/14
...Maritime Stations...
1 E Quintana 60 MPH 0443 AM 12/13
23 E Galveston 52 MPH 0955 PM 12/13
Brazos 451 51 MPH 0815 PM 12/13
71 S Quintana 47 MPH 0840 PM 12/13
17 ESE Palacios 43 MPH 0736 PM 12/13
8 ESE Magnolia Beach 41 MPH 0718 PM 12/13
29 E Galveston 40 MPH 0110 AM 12/14
3 NNE San Leon 39 MPH 0923 PM 12/13
13 E Bayou Vista 38 MPH 1206 AM 12/14
2 ENE Galveston 38 MPH 0915 PM 12/13
4 NNE Galveston 32 MPH 0915 PM 12/13
Observations are collected from a variety of sources with varying
equipment and exposures. We thank all volunteer weather observers
for their dedication. Not all data listed are considered official.
$$-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6024
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 141140
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
540 AM CST Fri Dec 14 2018
.AVIATION...
Light rain showing up via radar imagery this morning circling
around the upper level low pressure system which is continuing to
shift east across SE TX. Short term guidance shows most of the
light rain ending by noon today as the system shifts further to
the northeast out of the region. Some terminals that have seen the
precipitation this morning have seen visibilities and ceilings
lower to temporary IFR/LIFR criteria. Otherwise, mostly MVFR
conditions expected through the day and into the evening across
all terminals. Winds should pick up in speed out of the W NW
becoming gusty this morning through the afternoon hours. VFR
conditions work their way from NE to SW early Saturday in the
extended portion of this TAF period, with gusts falling off and
wind speeds lowering to between 10 to 16 kts.
Hathaway
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CST Fri Dec 14 2018/
DISCUSSION...
At 1 AM, low pressure was located near the Arklatex with a cold
front over the west central Gulf and a secondary trough of low
pressure extending SW from the low across Central TX. 00z 850 mb
analysis showed a well defined low pressure system over N TX with
a trough extending south toward the middle coast. 850 mb moisture
was still plentiful over the eastern third of the state, east of
the weak trough axis. At 300 mb, a well defined upper low was also
located over N TX with a nice split in the upper level winds over
NE TX. The upper low is progged to sink SE today as the surface
low scoots to the east. Patchy light rain will accompany the upper
low as it moves across the region. The forecast soundings for
KCLL shows the lowest 5000 feet above freezing and not much in the
way of saturation at 10 C so although can`t completely rule out a
few snow flurries, feel the primary precipitation type will be
light rain or drizzle. Best rain chances should remain over the
northern third of the CWA closest to the best diffluence. Strong
CAA coupled with the cloud cover and mixing from winds will keep
temperatures very cool today with high temperatures struggling to
reach the middle 50`s.
As for the Wind Advisory, well, it`s been in effect for a while
and wind observations have been reluctant to meet Advisory
criteria. The gradient is expected to tighten later this morning
and the latest LAV/ECMWF guidance supports an increase in wind
speeds. Have reconfigured the Wind Advisory to remove some of the
far NW counties and start the Advisory at 17z and continue it
through 23z. Areas close to the Gulf/Bays should have very strong
winds this afternoon. As for Harris County, it`s a large county
and the stronger winds will be near KHOU toward the bay. The NW
half of the county will probably stay below Advisory criteria.
Clouds will linger tonight as the upper/sfc low depart the
region. On Saturday, clouds in the morning will gradually erode
as weak high pressure builds into south central TX. The high will
reside over the area through Monday before shifting east Mon
night. Cirrus clouds will be streaming into the area Sun-Sun night
but no precip is expected. Temperatures will begin to moderate
Sunday into Monday as 850 temps gradually warm. Sfc winds will
remain out of the north so the warm up will be slow.
Things look a bit more interesting for Tuesday night into
Wednesday as a strong short wave moves into the southern plains.
PW values increase to around 1.25 inches and fcst soundings over
the southern half of the region become saturated. Jet dynamics
look good early Wednesday but a confluent upper flow by late Wednesday
aftn should provide a quick end to precip. The end of next week
looks dry with near to slightly above normal temperatures. 43
MARINE...
The cold front that pushed through the region yesterday has left
behind a rather strong pressure gradient resulting in moderate to
strong west northwesterly winds. The upper level low pressure system
will continue to skirt SE TX pushing off to the northeast later this
morning and into the afternoon hours. Therefore, the pressure
gradient should slacken throughout the day and the moderate to
strong west northwest wind should become more moderate northwesterly
winds by the afternoon hours. Gale Warnings have been canceled for
both Matagorda and Galveston Bays as observations have remained
below criteria and global guidance has also trended lower in the
most recent runs. Small Craft Advisories have been substituted in
place of the Gale Warnings across both bays. Gale Warnings remain in
effect across the Gulf waters with the strongest winds and highest
seas remaining in the western offshore waters this morning. Both
winds and seas should lower throughout the afternoon and into the
evening hours. Later this afternoon, Gale Warnings will transition
into Small Craft Advisories across the Gulf waters through Saturday
morning.
These west to northwesterly winds will also result in low tide
levels with water levels falling between -1.0 to 1.5 feet below
MLLW. Impacts will likely be felt during the low tide cycle this
afternoon. Low Water Advisories remain in effect through 6 PM this
evening for both Matagorda and Galveston Bays.
Hathaway
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 52 40 60 38 65 / 30 10 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 54 43 60 42 65 / 30 10 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 56 47 58 50 61 / 20 10 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM CST this afternoon
for the following zones: Brazoria Islands...Chambers...
Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...
Coastal Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Fort Bend...Galveston
Island and Bolivar Peninsula...Inland Brazoria...Inland
Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland
Matagorda...Matagorda Islands...Wharton.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for the
following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM CST
Saturday for the following zones: Coastal waters from
Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal
waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters
from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60
NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60
NM.
Gale Warning until 3 PM CST this afternoon for the following
zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island
to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
Discussion...43
Aviation/Marine...08
FXUS64 KHGX 141140
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
540 AM CST Fri Dec 14 2018
.AVIATION...
Light rain showing up via radar imagery this morning circling
around the upper level low pressure system which is continuing to
shift east across SE TX. Short term guidance shows most of the
light rain ending by noon today as the system shifts further to
the northeast out of the region. Some terminals that have seen the
precipitation this morning have seen visibilities and ceilings
lower to temporary IFR/LIFR criteria. Otherwise, mostly MVFR
conditions expected through the day and into the evening across
all terminals. Winds should pick up in speed out of the W NW
becoming gusty this morning through the afternoon hours. VFR
conditions work their way from NE to SW early Saturday in the
extended portion of this TAF period, with gusts falling off and
wind speeds lowering to between 10 to 16 kts.
Hathaway
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CST Fri Dec 14 2018/
DISCUSSION...
At 1 AM, low pressure was located near the Arklatex with a cold
front over the west central Gulf and a secondary trough of low
pressure extending SW from the low across Central TX. 00z 850 mb
analysis showed a well defined low pressure system over N TX with
a trough extending south toward the middle coast. 850 mb moisture
was still plentiful over the eastern third of the state, east of
the weak trough axis. At 300 mb, a well defined upper low was also
located over N TX with a nice split in the upper level winds over
NE TX. The upper low is progged to sink SE today as the surface
low scoots to the east. Patchy light rain will accompany the upper
low as it moves across the region. The forecast soundings for
KCLL shows the lowest 5000 feet above freezing and not much in the
way of saturation at 10 C so although can`t completely rule out a
few snow flurries, feel the primary precipitation type will be
light rain or drizzle. Best rain chances should remain over the
northern third of the CWA closest to the best diffluence. Strong
CAA coupled with the cloud cover and mixing from winds will keep
temperatures very cool today with high temperatures struggling to
reach the middle 50`s.
As for the Wind Advisory, well, it`s been in effect for a while
and wind observations have been reluctant to meet Advisory
criteria. The gradient is expected to tighten later this morning
and the latest LAV/ECMWF guidance supports an increase in wind
speeds. Have reconfigured the Wind Advisory to remove some of the
far NW counties and start the Advisory at 17z and continue it
through 23z. Areas close to the Gulf/Bays should have very strong
winds this afternoon. As for Harris County, it`s a large county
and the stronger winds will be near KHOU toward the bay. The NW
half of the county will probably stay below Advisory criteria.
Clouds will linger tonight as the upper/sfc low depart the
region. On Saturday, clouds in the morning will gradually erode
as weak high pressure builds into south central TX. The high will
reside over the area through Monday before shifting east Mon
night. Cirrus clouds will be streaming into the area Sun-Sun night
but no precip is expected. Temperatures will begin to moderate
Sunday into Monday as 850 temps gradually warm. Sfc winds will
remain out of the north so the warm up will be slow.
Things look a bit more interesting for Tuesday night into
Wednesday as a strong short wave moves into the southern plains.
PW values increase to around 1.25 inches and fcst soundings over
the southern half of the region become saturated. Jet dynamics
look good early Wednesday but a confluent upper flow by late Wednesday
aftn should provide a quick end to precip. The end of next week
looks dry with near to slightly above normal temperatures. 43
MARINE...
The cold front that pushed through the region yesterday has left
behind a rather strong pressure gradient resulting in moderate to
strong west northwesterly winds. The upper level low pressure system
will continue to skirt SE TX pushing off to the northeast later this
morning and into the afternoon hours. Therefore, the pressure
gradient should slacken throughout the day and the moderate to
strong west northwest wind should become more moderate northwesterly
winds by the afternoon hours. Gale Warnings have been canceled for
both Matagorda and Galveston Bays as observations have remained
below criteria and global guidance has also trended lower in the
most recent runs. Small Craft Advisories have been substituted in
place of the Gale Warnings across both bays. Gale Warnings remain in
effect across the Gulf waters with the strongest winds and highest
seas remaining in the western offshore waters this morning. Both
winds and seas should lower throughout the afternoon and into the
evening hours. Later this afternoon, Gale Warnings will transition
into Small Craft Advisories across the Gulf waters through Saturday
morning.
These west to northwesterly winds will also result in low tide
levels with water levels falling between -1.0 to 1.5 feet below
MLLW. Impacts will likely be felt during the low tide cycle this
afternoon. Low Water Advisories remain in effect through 6 PM this
evening for both Matagorda and Galveston Bays.
Hathaway
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 52 40 60 38 65 / 30 10 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 54 43 60 42 65 / 30 10 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 56 47 58 50 61 / 20 10 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM CST this afternoon
for the following zones: Brazoria Islands...Chambers...
Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...
Coastal Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Fort Bend...Galveston
Island and Bolivar Peninsula...Inland Brazoria...Inland
Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland
Matagorda...Matagorda Islands...Wharton.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for the
following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM CST
Saturday for the following zones: Coastal waters from
Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal
waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters
from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60
NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60
NM.
Gale Warning until 3 PM CST this afternoon for the following
zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island
to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
Discussion...43
Aviation/Marine...08
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19685
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
Upper low passed over the Northern half of SE Texas and is nearing the Sabine River. What a difference a day makes. It's cold and blustery out there with wind chill values in the upper 20's to 30's. Bundle up!
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Once.unome wrote: ↑Fri Dec 14, 2018 8:43 amI guess you missed it, it was gusting up to 32mph at Montgomery County Airport yesterday evening.redneckweather wrote: ↑Fri Dec 14, 2018 8:26 am I'm sorry but did I miss the wind that was heavily forecasted the past few days? I'm looking outside and the flags are slack. lol
You have to admit, this didn’t quite pan out like expected. The front was supposed to come through during the day with crazy winds. Didn’t happen. We left our concert about 7 and it was dead still calm outside. I was wondering “what the heck??”
The front and winds didn’t arrive until after 7, after dark, and so the winds were not as intense as expected. Sure there were some decent gusts but this was not quite what was advertised...
-
Andrew
- Site Admin
- Posts: 3497
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:46 pm
- Location: North-West Houston
- Contact:
Some examples of bright banding northeast of Conroe currently as the dry snow starts to melt around 2-3kft in the air. That is where your hydrometeor classification is showing more of wet snow/graupel and more returns are reflecting back towards the radar. Not exactly a textbook example but still cool to see.
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LightningBolt
- Posts: 35
- Joined: Mon Jan 15, 2018 7:47 pm
- Location: Central Liberty County
- Contact:
A cold, light mist here with calm winds. Definitely some comfort food (perhaps chili or chicken & dumplings) is on the menu for today.
Cheers, everyone!
Cheers, everyone!
-
Texaspirate11
- Posts: 1278
- Joined: Tue Dec 31, 2013 12:24 am
- Contact:
Brisky gray overcast by the bay.. Wind advisory and gales up!!!!
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
-
MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2616
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
FV3 finally picks up on the Arctic Air coming around New Years. At 300 hours onward you can see it bleeding south and at the end of the run (12/30), Amarillo is sitting in the teens and Abilene is at 51 degrees. It's below zero for most of the plains and intermountain West. Our source region is a icebox.
It never really warms up Christmas week. Very seasonal to a somewhat below average. Christmas Day in particular, is decently below average with highs in the low 50s.
It never really warms up Christmas week. Very seasonal to a somewhat below average. Christmas Day in particular, is decently below average with highs in the low 50s.
Team #NeverSummer
Yeah the wind is picking-up now. As they used to say ‘batten down the hatches!’
The Canadian is running mostly seasonal towards Christmas with a trough in the east on X-mas Eve and cooler temps here. 50s and 60s for highs after today and the CCL.
GFS - boring.
GFS - boring.
-
MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2616
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
There's a big disconnect between the old GFS and the FV3-GFS
Team #NeverSummer
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6024
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 141756
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1156 AM CST Fri Dec 14 2018
.AVIATION...
MVFR cloud decks (associated with the deep low pressure system
that is currently moving across SE TX) are expected to persist
the rest of this afternoon and most likely into tonight (depen-
ding on the site). As this system slowly lifts to the E/NE dur-
ing the overnight hours, we should see CIGS improving from the
west and south...along with a decrease of the strong and gusty
W/NW winds also associated with this system. VFR conditions to
prevail across SE TX by mid/late Sat morning. 41
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Fri Dec 14 2018/
The main weather story today will continue to be the evolution of
the upper level low over east Texas and gusty northwest winds as
a result. Winds have not increased quite as much since cloud cover
is limiting heating and resulting mixing in the boundary layer.
Wind advisory for the coastal counties and areas just inland looks
on track. Visible satellite shows some breaks in clouds to the
west but wrap around moisture from the upper low may bring back
cloud cover. This will make the temperature forecast tricky for
today as well. Temperatures were updated for today and decreased a
couple of degrees to account for cloud cover and cold advection.
Upper low will continue to cause rain and pockets of moderate rain
mainly north and east of Houston today. Upper low should track
east slowly and this will bring the rain with it so we should see
conditions improve later this afternoon and tonight. More dry air
arrives tonight which will allow for low temperatures in the upper
30s to low 40s.
Overpeck
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 50 38 60 38 65 / 30 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 53 42 60 42 65 / 30 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 54 45 58 50 61 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory until 5 PM CST this afternoon for the following
zones: Brazoria Islands...Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...
Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal Jackson...
Coastal Matagorda...Fort Bend...Galveston Island and
Bolivar Peninsula...Inland Brazoria...Inland Galveston...
Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland Matagorda...
Matagorda Islands...Wharton.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for the
following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM CST
Saturday for the following zones: Coastal waters from
Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal
waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters
from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60
NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60
NM.
Gale Warning until 3 PM CST this afternoon for the following
zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island
to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
FXUS64 KHGX 141756
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1156 AM CST Fri Dec 14 2018
.AVIATION...
MVFR cloud decks (associated with the deep low pressure system
that is currently moving across SE TX) are expected to persist
the rest of this afternoon and most likely into tonight (depen-
ding on the site). As this system slowly lifts to the E/NE dur-
ing the overnight hours, we should see CIGS improving from the
west and south...along with a decrease of the strong and gusty
W/NW winds also associated with this system. VFR conditions to
prevail across SE TX by mid/late Sat morning. 41
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Fri Dec 14 2018/
The main weather story today will continue to be the evolution of
the upper level low over east Texas and gusty northwest winds as
a result. Winds have not increased quite as much since cloud cover
is limiting heating and resulting mixing in the boundary layer.
Wind advisory for the coastal counties and areas just inland looks
on track. Visible satellite shows some breaks in clouds to the
west but wrap around moisture from the upper low may bring back
cloud cover. This will make the temperature forecast tricky for
today as well. Temperatures were updated for today and decreased a
couple of degrees to account for cloud cover and cold advection.
Upper low will continue to cause rain and pockets of moderate rain
mainly north and east of Houston today. Upper low should track
east slowly and this will bring the rain with it so we should see
conditions improve later this afternoon and tonight. More dry air
arrives tonight which will allow for low temperatures in the upper
30s to low 40s.
Overpeck
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 50 38 60 38 65 / 30 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 53 42 60 42 65 / 30 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 54 45 58 50 61 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory until 5 PM CST this afternoon for the following
zones: Brazoria Islands...Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...
Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal Jackson...
Coastal Matagorda...Fort Bend...Galveston Island and
Bolivar Peninsula...Inland Brazoria...Inland Galveston...
Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland Matagorda...
Matagorda Islands...Wharton.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for the
following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM CST
Saturday for the following zones: Coastal waters from
Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal
waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters
from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60
NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60
NM.
Gale Warning until 3 PM CST this afternoon for the following
zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island
to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
Won't be visible for too much longer... but latest visible satellite shows a very localized area of a snow covered ground just south of Abilene (outlined in pink).
The upper level low is sliding off to the NE and will slowly take the strong winds with it along with the clouds. Might be able to squeeze out some sunshine this evening before the sunset (mainly west/southwest areas)... if not, beautiful weekend shaping up regardless.
The upper level low is sliding off to the NE and will slowly take the strong winds with it along with the clouds. Might be able to squeeze out some sunshine this evening before the sunset (mainly west/southwest areas)... if not, beautiful weekend shaping up regardless.
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Last edited by Belmer on Fri Dec 14, 2018 1:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Blake
Boomer Sooner
Boomer Sooner
Good ole’ Joe B. I’ll add my $.02.
I’ve been reading Joe for the last 20 years. I believe it was 1998 when I started reading his (then free) blog on Accuweather. Before there even was “The Long Ranger” or him dueling with his other “Weather Warrior,” the late Ken Reeves.
There is no question he is passionate about his craft. He is a natural competitor. That constantly drives him to be the most accurate forecaster he can be. This is a good thing. At the same time, I believe he still feels like he is living in his father’s shadow, and this insecurity is constantly driving him to discover or see things that others cannot. This is what gets him into trouble at times.
He’s a great forecaster. Someone to always consider. There are times when he can brilliantly visualize a teleconnection pattern before others. At the same time, this can manifest into a tendency to latch onto unrealistic forecasts long after it’s obvious it’s not gonna pan-out the way he predicted.
He is also very skilled at word-smithing to gloss over his misses. He tends to cherry pick to imply he’s a more accurate forecaster than he is. For example, tossing out an idea – something to watch; then hyping it up, and when it happens he will scream the loudest “See! I told you I saw it coming! While everyone else (NWS or NHC) was asleep at the wheel, I was warning you! Heed my warnings next time!”
Yet when it doesn’t happens he says “I never actually forecast that or explicitly said it was going to happen – it was just something to keep an eye on in case it happened.”
Yeah, right. BS.
This type of revisionist forecasting drives me nuts. But he’s by no means the only meteorologist guilty of it.
He’s also very skilled at self-promotion and taking credit for being a pioneer in teleconnections and long-range forecasting with a very classical toolset (analogs, etc.). Just to set the record straight, this was not some new science discovered by Accuweather. Other meteorologists had been doing this for years, it just wasn’t so publicly emphasized and circulated until Joe had his very public media platform to peddle his wares. To his credit, he did teach a generation of online amateurs about the secrets of classical forecasting tools. After all, I didn’t read his columns for nothing.
But overall, like any forecaster, there are times when he’s great, and there are times when he misses.
He had Rita coming right at us – a Cat 5 at Galveston, a Cat 4 into Houston, a Cat 3 all the way up I-45 to Conroe. It was going to be the apocalypse. He held onto that for so long, after the NHC abandoned that idea altogether…..just one example.
Learn what you can, but also take it with a grain of salt.
Regarding the AGW debate: all I will say is that it’s sad this scientific debate has become a political one; liberal versus conservative. I don’t look at most issues with such a black or white lens and this one shouldn’t be either. It’s a scientific debate best left for people who actually know what they are talking about; not politicians, journalists and talking heads on TV who claim to have an opinion on climate change (because of their political party affiliation), yet would fail a basic 6th grade earth science quiz on the water cycle.
I think Joe truly believes what he espouses. I don’t believe in the conspiracy theories that he’s somehow paid off with oil money to publicly doubt AGW. If there is one thing about Joe that’s true, is that he is a truth seeker who’s passionate about his work and research. Whether you believe in his findings or not is another question, but I don’t question his genuineness and authenticity, right or wrong.
I’ve been reading Joe for the last 20 years. I believe it was 1998 when I started reading his (then free) blog on Accuweather. Before there even was “The Long Ranger” or him dueling with his other “Weather Warrior,” the late Ken Reeves.
There is no question he is passionate about his craft. He is a natural competitor. That constantly drives him to be the most accurate forecaster he can be. This is a good thing. At the same time, I believe he still feels like he is living in his father’s shadow, and this insecurity is constantly driving him to discover or see things that others cannot. This is what gets him into trouble at times.
He’s a great forecaster. Someone to always consider. There are times when he can brilliantly visualize a teleconnection pattern before others. At the same time, this can manifest into a tendency to latch onto unrealistic forecasts long after it’s obvious it’s not gonna pan-out the way he predicted.
He is also very skilled at word-smithing to gloss over his misses. He tends to cherry pick to imply he’s a more accurate forecaster than he is. For example, tossing out an idea – something to watch; then hyping it up, and when it happens he will scream the loudest “See! I told you I saw it coming! While everyone else (NWS or NHC) was asleep at the wheel, I was warning you! Heed my warnings next time!”
Yet when it doesn’t happens he says “I never actually forecast that or explicitly said it was going to happen – it was just something to keep an eye on in case it happened.”
Yeah, right. BS.
This type of revisionist forecasting drives me nuts. But he’s by no means the only meteorologist guilty of it.
He’s also very skilled at self-promotion and taking credit for being a pioneer in teleconnections and long-range forecasting with a very classical toolset (analogs, etc.). Just to set the record straight, this was not some new science discovered by Accuweather. Other meteorologists had been doing this for years, it just wasn’t so publicly emphasized and circulated until Joe had his very public media platform to peddle his wares. To his credit, he did teach a generation of online amateurs about the secrets of classical forecasting tools. After all, I didn’t read his columns for nothing.
But overall, like any forecaster, there are times when he’s great, and there are times when he misses.
He had Rita coming right at us – a Cat 5 at Galveston, a Cat 4 into Houston, a Cat 3 all the way up I-45 to Conroe. It was going to be the apocalypse. He held onto that for so long, after the NHC abandoned that idea altogether…..just one example.
Learn what you can, but also take it with a grain of salt.
Regarding the AGW debate: all I will say is that it’s sad this scientific debate has become a political one; liberal versus conservative. I don’t look at most issues with such a black or white lens and this one shouldn’t be either. It’s a scientific debate best left for people who actually know what they are talking about; not politicians, journalists and talking heads on TV who claim to have an opinion on climate change (because of their political party affiliation), yet would fail a basic 6th grade earth science quiz on the water cycle.
I think Joe truly believes what he espouses. I don’t believe in the conspiracy theories that he’s somehow paid off with oil money to publicly doubt AGW. If there is one thing about Joe that’s true, is that he is a truth seeker who’s passionate about his work and research. Whether you believe in his findings or not is another question, but I don’t question his genuineness and authenticity, right or wrong.
-
CRASHWX
- Posts: 266
- Joined: Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:33 pm
- Location: Hardin County / North of Beaumont
- Contact:
I think that’s a fair take on Joe Bastardi...I can agree with your take on thingsjasons wrote: ↑Fri Dec 14, 2018 1:03 pm Good ole’ Joe B. I’ll add my $.02.
I’ve been reading Joe for the last 20 years. I believe it was 1998 when I started reading his (then free) blog on Accuweather. Before there even was “The Long Ranger” or him dueling with his other “Weather Warrior,” the late Ken Reeves.
There is no question he is passionate about his craft. He is a natural competitor. That constantly drives him to be the most accurate forecaster he can be. This is a good thing. At the same time, I believe he still feels like he is living in his father’s shadow, and this insecurity is constantly driving him to discover or see things that others cannot. This is what gets him into trouble at times.
He’s a great forecaster. Someone to always consider. There are times when he can brilliantly visualize a teleconnection pattern before others. At the same time, this can manifest into a tendency to latch onto unrealistic forecasts long after it’s obvious it’s not gonna pan-out the way he predicted.
He is also very skilled at word-smithing to gloss over his misses. He tends to cherry pick to imply he’s a more accurate forecaster than he is. For example, tossing out an idea – something to watch; then hyping it up, and when it happens he will scream the loudest “See! I told you I saw it coming! While everyone else (NWS or NHC) was asleep at the wheel, I was warning you! Heed my warnings next time!”
Yet when it doesn’t happens he says “I never actually forecast that or explicitly said it was going to happen – it was just something to keep an eye on in case it happened.”
Yeah, right. BS.
This type of revisionist forecasting drives me nuts. But he’s by no means the only meteorologist guilty of it.
He’s also very skilled at self-promotion and taking credit for being a pioneer in teleconnections and long-range forecasting with a very classical toolset (analogs, etc.). Just to set the record straight, this was not some new science discovered by Accuweather. Other meteorologists had been doing this for years, it just wasn’t so publicly emphasized and circulated until Joe had his very public media platform to peddle his wares. To his credit, he did teach a generation of online amateurs about the secrets of classical forecasting tools. After all, I didn’t read his columns for nothing.
But overall, like any forecaster, there are times when he’s great, and there are times when he misses.
He had Rita coming right at us – a Cat 5 at Galveston, a Cat 4 into Houston, a Cat 3 all the way up I-45 to Conroe. It was going to be the apocalypse. He held onto that for so long, after the NHC abandoned that idea altogether…..just one example.
Learn what you can, but also take it with a grain of salt.
Regarding the AGW debate: all I will say is that it’s sad this scientific debate has become a political one; liberal versus conservative. I don’t look at most issues with such a black or white lens and this one shouldn’t be either. It’s a scientific debate best left for people who actually know what they are talking about; not politicians, journalists and talking heads on TV who claim to have an opinion on climate change (because of their political party affiliation), yet would fail a basic 6th grade earth science quiz on the water cycle.
I think Joe truly believes what he espouses. I don’t believe in the conspiracy theories that he’s somehow paid off with oil money to publicly doubt AGW. If there is one thing about Joe that’s true, is that he is a truth seeker who’s passionate about his work and research. Whether you believe in his findings or not is another question, but I don’t question his genuineness and authenticity, right or wrong.
CRASHWX -
MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2616
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
jasons wrote: ↑Fri Dec 14, 2018 1:03 pm Good ole’ Joe B. I’ll add my $.02.
I’ve been reading Joe for the last 20 years. I believe it was 1998 when I started reading his (then free) blog on Accuweather. Before there even was “The Long Ranger” or him dueling with his other “Weather Warrior,” the late Ken Reeves.
There is no question he is passionate about his craft. He is a natural competitor. That constantly drives him to be the most accurate forecaster he can be. This is a good thing. At the same time, I believe he still feels like he is living in his father’s shadow, and this insecurity is constantly driving him to discover or see things that others cannot. This is what gets him into trouble at times.
He’s a great forecaster. Someone to always consider. There are times when he can brilliantly visualize a teleconnection pattern before others. At the same time, this can manifest into a tendency to latch onto unrealistic forecasts long after it’s obvious it’s not gonna pan-out the way he predicted.
He is also very skilled at word-smithing to gloss over his misses. He tends to cherry pick to imply he’s a more accurate forecaster than he is. For example, tossing out an idea – something to watch; then hyping it up, and when it happens he will scream the loudest “See! I told you I saw it coming! While everyone else (NWS or NHC) was asleep at the wheel, I was warning you! Heed my warnings next time!”
Yet when it doesn’t happens he says “I never actually forecast that or explicitly said it was going to happen – it was just something to keep an eye on in case it happened.”
Yeah, right. BS.
This type of revisionist forecasting drives me nuts. But he’s by no means the only meteorologist guilty of it.
He’s also very skilled at self-promotion and taking credit for being a pioneer in teleconnections and long-range forecasting with a very classical toolset (analogs, etc.). Just to set the record straight, this was not some new science discovered by Accuweather. Other meteorologists had been doing this for years, it just wasn’t so publicly emphasized and circulated until Joe had his very public media platform to peddle his wares. To his credit, he did teach a generation of online amateurs about the secrets of classical forecasting tools. After all, I didn’t read his columns for nothing.
But overall, like any forecaster, there are times when he’s great, and there are times when he misses.
He had Rita coming right at us – a Cat 5 at Galveston, a Cat 4 into Houston, a Cat 3 all the way up I-45 to Conroe. It was going to be the apocalypse. He held onto that for so long, after the NHC abandoned that idea altogether…..just one example.
Learn what you can, but also take it with a grain of salt.
Regarding the AGW debate: all I will say is that it’s sad this scientific debate has become a political one; liberal versus conservative. I don’t look at most issues with such a black or white lens and this one shouldn’t be either. It’s a scientific debate best left for people who actually know what they are talking about; not politicians, journalists and talking heads on TV who claim to have an opinion on climate change (because of their political party affiliation), yet would fail a basic 6th grade earth science quiz on the water cycle.
I think Joe truly believes what he espouses. I don’t believe in the conspiracy theories that he’s somehow paid off with oil money to publicly doubt AGW. If there is one thing about Joe that’s true, is that he is a truth seeker who’s passionate about his work and research. Whether you believe in his findings or not is another question, but I don’t question his genuineness and authenticity, right or wrong.
Very fair take.
Team #NeverSummer
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Texaspirate11
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Wind gusts reported 41 mph around my area in the bay...power outages also
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
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