December 2018: Sunshine Returns New Years Eve

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Post Reply
mcheer23
Pro Met
Pro Met
Posts: 530
Joined: Fri Jan 11, 2013 11:15 am
Location: Missouri City/ Sugar Land
Contact:

don wrote: Thu Dec 06, 2018 10:19 am 12z GFS and 12z CMC have both shifted the axis of heaviest rain closer to the 59 corridor which would put more of the metro area in risk of flash flooding.

Yup very concerning.. need to stay weather aware tomorrow. If you have any plans tomorrow night....I'd reconsider.
User avatar
MontgomeryCoWx
Posts: 2356
Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
Location: Weimar, TX
Contact:

High temp forecast is gonna bust big time in Magnolia today. I’m out here at the railroad depot on 1774 for 41s procession and it is chilly. Rain is moving in too.
Team #NeverSummer
User avatar
snowman65
Posts: 1191
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 6:39 am
Location: Orange, Tx
Contact:

Our local high school has a football playoff game in Porter, Tx tomorrow and they have not cancelled or moved it as of yet....crazy.
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 4437
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

Houston Flash Flood Threat
Attachments
NWS Houston Flash Flood Threat 12 06 18.PNG
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 4437
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

Difference between Flash Flood Watch and Warning..
Attachments
Differences between Flash Flood Watch and Warning 12 06 18.PNG
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 4437
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

Jeff advises, via Twitter, to bookmark these sites...
Attachments
San Jacinto River Authority    12 06 18.PNG
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 4437
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

Houston Flash Flood Watch....
Attachments
Flash Flood Watch 12 06 18.PNG
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 4437
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

snowman65 wrote: Thu Dec 06, 2018 12:05 pm Our local high school has a football playoff game in Porter, Tx tomorrow and they have not cancelled or moved it as of yet....crazy.
Yes, West Orange Stark is still playing outside...as of now...
Attachments
Playoff Games Outside This Weekend   12 06 18.PNG
Andrew
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 3438
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:46 pm
Location: North-West Houston
Contact:

The biggest thing we need to watch for with flooding tomorrow is the location of the early to late afternoon activity. GFS has a shortwave in the midlevels rotating through Southeast Texas during that time, focusing some of the heavier precipitation in this region. If that happens that is where you really could run into some flooding issues especially with the main line of storms coming through shortly later overnight. If we can escape the early afternoon training, the line of storms overnight will likely move through quickly enough that street flooding will be the biggest cause of concern (assuming we don't have any training ahead of the line). Unfortunately, as many of our heavy rain events go, we will have to wait until the radar lights up to know exactly where that heaviest rainfall threat exists.
For Your Infinite Source For All Things Weather Visit Our Facebook
stormlover
Posts: 439
Joined: Wed Dec 04, 2013 10:21 am
Location: Lumberton TX
Contact:

What is euro showing
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 4437
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

Andrew wrote: Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:10 pm The biggest thing we need to watch for with flooding tomorrow is the location of the early to late afternoon activity. GFS has a shortwave in the midlevels rotating through Southeast Texas during that time, focusing some of the heavier precipitation in this region. If that happens that is where you really could run into some flooding issues especially with the main line of storms coming through shortly later overnight. If we can escape the early afternoon training, the line of storms overnight will likely move through quickly enough that street flooding will be the biggest cause of concern (assuming we don't have any training ahead of the line). Unfortunately, as many of our heavy rain events go, we will have to wait until the radar lights up to know exactly where that heaviest rainfall threat exists.
Yes. Yes. Yes and wait..yes...:)
Andrew
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 3438
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:46 pm
Location: North-West Houston
Contact:

stormlover wrote: Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:21 pm What is euro showing
Widespread 2-3 inches isolated 5-7 inches
For Your Infinite Source For All Things Weather Visit Our Facebook
Cromagnum
Posts: 2592
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2011 10:42 pm
Contact:

Any concerns for hail and wind?
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19611
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

Update from Jeff regarding River Flood Potential:

Significant rainfall event is likely over the region producing major rises on area watersheds.

Several major rivers are forecast to go into at least minor flood over the weekend if current rainfall forecasts verify over the area. These forecasts will change some as the rainfall begins to impact the area.

Trinity: minor to moderate flooding is expected along the entire river below Riverside
San Jacinto: minor to moderate flooding is expected on the West Fork. Minor flooding on the East Fork
Cypress Creek: minor flooding is forecast from Katy Hockley to West Fork of the San Jacinto River
Brazos: Minor flooding is expected at Hempstead and Bryan and will likely see at least minor at Richmond and Rosharon
San Bernard: Minor to moderate flooding along the entire channel
Colorado: Minor flooding from Bastrop downstream to Wharton
Tres Palacios: Minor to moderate entire channel.

To view forecasts for SE TX:

https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=hgx

Note: for the west fork of the San Jacinto moderate flooding is currently forecast, but major flooding is certainly possible.
Attachments
12062018 WFSJ River Jeff untitled.png
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19611
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

The Weather Prediction Center expands their Moderate Risk for Excessive Rainfall across S Central and SE Texas to include most locations except for Coastal tier of Counties.
12062018 20Z Excessive Rinfall 98ewbg.gif
Afternoon Updated Low Track as of 20Z
12062018 20Z Low Track lowtrack_ensembles.gif
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19611
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

Updated Thursday afternoon Quantitative Precipitation Forecast suggest a swath of 5 to 7 inches of rainfall mostly tomorrow into early Saturday across SE Texas.
Attachments
12062018 2021Z 2 Day QPF d12_fill.gif
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19611
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

Cromagnum wrote: Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:54 pm Any concerns for hail and wind?
There is a risk for damaging winds and a quick spin up tornado or two mainly for the Coastal tier of Counties. That is a big wildcard in our local SE Texas forecast mainly for the overnight hour late Friday into early Saturday.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19611
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

srainhoutx wrote: Thu Dec 06, 2018 3:12 pm
Cromagnum wrote: Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:54 pm Any concerns for hail and wind?
There is a risk for damaging winds and a quick spin up tornado or two mainly for the Coastal tier of Counties. That is a big wildcard in our local SE Texas forecast mainly for the overnight hours late Friday into early Saturday.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19611
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

We also need to monitor mid next week. Another potent Pacific Storm looks to bring rain back into the forecast next Wednesday night/Thursday across a good portion of Texas.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
sau27
Posts: 415
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 12:04 am
Location: Bellaire
Contact:

The 0z update from WPC looks like it shifted the QPF bullseye a bit closer to the coast. Let’s see if that trend continues.
Post Reply
  • Information
  • Who is online

    Users browsing this forum: Ahrefs [Bot] and 65 guests