NOVEMBER 2018: Thanksgiving Outlook

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Texaspirate11
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Windchill could make it feel like its 17 degrees outside tomorrow morning
I for one am waiting for my weekend 70's
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Cromagnum
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Bring on more cold and keep it this way until April or May.
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srainhoutx
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Heavy frost this morning across NW Harris County. Currently flirting with 28F as a low this morning in my backyard. The coldest I've seen via the reporting stations is Caldwell where it is 26F. Bay City, Victoria on East to Dickinson have all dropped to 32F or below. Temperatures in the morning may bring freezing temperatures very close to Galveston Island.

Temperatures may struggle to hit 50F today for highs. A slow warming trend is expected for the remainder of the week into the Weekend. A cold front arrives next Monday, although it is not nearly as cold as this one. All eyes turn to next Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day when a Coastal trough/low combined with a strong storm system traveling across California, Arizona and New Mexico arrives and an attending cold front look to bring a very good chance of potentially a heavy rainfall and strong thunderstorm event to our Region. Stay Tuned!
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CrashTestDummy
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Sat down at my office desk this morning to 31.7 deg-F in northern Brazoria county. Brrrrrrrrr.
Gene Beaird,
Pearland, Texas

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djmike
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Woke up to a Brrrr-eezing temp of 32 degrees here in Beaumont! Tonight into Thursday morning will be the coldest since last winter so far for is with a forecasted low of 29. Many areas will flirt and possibly even reach a breif 27-28 before the warming trend of Thursday begins. Bundle up folks! Hope to see many more wintery surprises this year like we saw yesterday! This winter is forecasted to be a wetter one than last, so the possibility is alive! Cheers!
Mike
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BlueJay
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It's a sunglasses and coat kind of day. 8-)

So nice to see the sun! It makes the cold a bit more tolerable.
Cpv17
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FV3 model is interesting in the long range.
Cpv17
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The 12z Euro has most of the rain offshore for next week.
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tireman4
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HGX Weather Forecast Tonight..
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HGX Weather Forecast 11 14 18.PNG
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Katdaddy
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Ready for Spring and Summer 2019 however if Winter 2018-2019 brings some snow; I will enjoy and stay warm.
Cpv17
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Katdaddy wrote:Ready for Spring and Summer 2019 however if Winter 2018-2019 brings some snow; I will enjoy and stay warm.
It already has once lol I believe a lot more will come. This setup is looking fantastic!
unome
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Hooks hasn't reported since last night https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.php?sid=KDWH

https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap reads anywhere from 28 to 34 for my immediate area

cheapo patio thermometer reads 34, but it's on the house wall, which is likely warmer

I'm done with winter for now, bring back my sun & warming rays !
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snowman65
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Now that this big freeze event will be over today, when is the NEXT one?? That's all I want to know....lol....keep on bringin em....
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srainhoutx
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The forecast for the very busy Thanksgiving travel period looks messy across the Texas Gulf Coast. While there remains some uncertainty this far out, the computer guidance does indicate a Coastal trough develops near Brownsville after the next cold front arrives Sunday. That trough appears to deepen Tuesday and into Wednesday with showers and thunderstorms developing and some potential for heavy rainfall depending on the actual track of a strong Coastal Low. Travel may be impacted particularly Wednesday into Thanksgiving Day and possibly extending into next Friday. We will be monitoring carefully as many of us have travel plans. Stay Tuned!
Attachments
11152018 Day 6 9mhwbg_conus.gif
11152018 Day 7 9nhwbg_conus.gif
11152018 9Z 7 Day QPF p168i.gif
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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jasons2k
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Saturday: Mostly Sunny and 70F. I can't wait!!!
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MontgomeryCoWx
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December is starting to look very cold and stormy! We may be locking in an epic Winter in a couple weeks.

Long range has flipped to much Colder.
Team #NeverSummer
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srainhoutx
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote:December is starting to look very cold and stormy! We may be locking in an epic Winter in a couple weeks.

Long range has flipped to much Colder.
The longer range guidance will be playing cat up with these new Updated Teleconnection Indices. Impressive Hemispheric Pattern developing as we end November and begin December. Siberia is running well below normal temperature wise for mid November. A massive Northern latitude blocking regime establishes a very negative NAO and AO. That positive PNA suggests a Western Ridge and a negative EPO delivers storms system at the higher latitudes up and over the Bering Sea/Western Alaska dumping cold air across the North Pole into North America. Above normal snowfall across the Northern Hemisphere also suggests less airmass modification as we roll forward in time.
Attachments
11152018 Teleconnection 4indices.png
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snowman65
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote:December is starting to look very cold and stormy! We may be locking in an epic Winter in a couple weeks.

Long range has flipped to much Colder.
I hope you're right!!
CrashTestDummy
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And I'm wishcasting that the models are wrong! We finally got a good crop of oranges and grapefruit this year. Praying we don't get a setback with freezing weather this fall/winter.
Gene Beaird,
Pearland, Texas

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snowman65
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The longer range guidance will be playing cat up with these new Updated Teleconnection Indices. Impressive Hemispheric Pattern developing as we end November and begin December. Siberia is running well below normal temperature wise for mid November. A massive Northern latitude blocking regime establishes a very negative NAO and AO. That positive PNA suggests a Western Ridge and a negative EPO delivers storms system at the higher latitudes up and over the Bering Sea/Western Alaska dumping cold air across the North Pole into North America. Above normal snowfall across the Northern Hemisphere also suggests less airmass modification as we roll forward in time.[/quote]

This is what I read: The longer range ndfgoijhdgh[ne[hoerhoh Novemebr and begin December. A massive i;apiohvihvfqhphnpuihafguiomvehp[iomhcwaemhe. Above normal snowfall.......

:lol: :lol: :lol:
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