Hurricane Alex. 40 Miles NNE of La Pesca. 100 MPH/948MB

[Andrew]

That pressure may be suspect... We'll see

Well some have been saying that the pressure is already lower then normal around that area so that could be contributing to the low pressure.

[perk]

That pressure may be suspect... We'll see

That pressure is definitely suspect.

[srainhoutx]

AL, 01, 2010062800, , BEST, 0, 192N, 911W, 35, 991, TS,

[tireman4]

I wonder if they will put out an intermediate advisory upgrading Alex back to Tropical Storm status?

[srainhoutx]

URNT12 KNHC 280025
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012010
A. 27/23:45:00Z
B. 19 deg 13 min N
091 deg 06 min W
C. 925 mb 603 m
D. 41 kt
E. 357 deg 47 nm
F. 087 deg 42 kt
G. 010 deg 80 nm
H. EXTRAP 991 mb
I. 21 C / 763 m
J. 22 C / 774 m
K. 14 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 9
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF304 0401A ALEX OB 06
MAX FL WIND 42 KT N QUAD 23:19:50Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB


Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 00:25Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Storm Number & Year: 01L in 2010
Storm Name: Alex (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 06
A. Time of Center Fix: 27th day of the month at 23:45:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°13'N 91°06'W (19.2167N 91.1W)
B. Center Fix Location: 58 miles (93 km) to the SW (221°) from Campeche, Campeche, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 603m (1,978ft) at 925mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 41kts (~ 47.2mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 47 nautical miles (54 statute miles) to the N (357°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 87° at 42kts (From the E at ~ 48.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 80 nautical miles (92 statute miles) to the N (10°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 991mb (29.26 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 763m (2,503ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 774m (2,539ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 14°C (57°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 925mb (If this vortex is from mid 1990's or earlier 925mb might be incorrect. See note.)
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 42kts (~ 48.3mph) in the north quadrant at 23:19:50Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb

[Paul]

not suspect anymore.....991 is crazy low for a TD...winds will catch up quick and this will be a TS at 11pm......


ED- I abandoned the EURO a few posts back....Stacy gave a good explanation why it was out to lunch...

[Paul]

with lfight winds at 42 knots this should be a TS already....

[perk]

not suspect anymore.....991 is crazy low for a TD...winds will catch up quick and this will be a TS at 11pm......


ED- I abandoned the EURO a few posts back....Stacy gave a good explanation why it was out to lunch...

Rock AFM has some issues with it too.

[Puzzled1]

Hey everyone

So are the models pretty much set for this storm to be south of us? Any chance ( good chance?) that it could still come and make landfall up here?

[Paul]

need more model runs and the upper air flights will help...what we do know is that ULL digging over LA will weaken the high as well as the trof which is still digging...

[srainhoutx]

Also keep an eye on the TUTT near the Bahamas. They can aid the ventilation process in the right conditions...

[Scott747]

not suspect anymore.....991 is crazy low for a TD...winds will catch up quick and this will be a TS at 11pm......


ED- I abandoned the EURO a few posts back....Stacy gave a good explanation why it was out to lunch...

Paul,

I think you are confusing what AFM said and attributing it to Stacy. Stewart didn't expand on why the Euro would be wrong in the 4am disco.

[sleetstorm]

Honestly, I am have trouble telling what direction that it is traveling in.

[srainhoutx]

[Paul]

18Z Nogaps, a bit North of Tampico, well South of BRO

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/dy ... oplant.gif

when the last time you relied on the NOGAPS Ed?

[srainhoutx]

Possible center. Waiting on vortex message...

01:12:00Z 19.150N 91.150W 924.9 mb
(~ 27.31 inHg) 604 meters
(~ 1,982 feet) 991.0 mb
(~ 29.26 inHg)

[Paul]

not suspect anymore.....991 is crazy low for a TD...winds will catch up quick and this will be a TS at 11pm......


ED- I abandoned the EURO a few posts back....Stacy gave a good explanation why it was out to lunch...

Paul,

I think you are confusing what AFM said and attributing it to Stacy. Stewart didn't expand on why the Euro would be wrong in the 4am disco.

AFM posted that from a call with Stewart....he expands on why the EURO has been so MX biased...its not from a Disco...

[Paul]

21 guests...the public is well informed...

we should change the thread title to 991MB...

[redfish1]

latest visible satellite looks like alex is moving NNW

[Scott747]

not suspect anymore.....991 is crazy low for a TD...winds will catch up quick and this will be a TS at 11pm......


ED- I abandoned the EURO a few posts back....Stacy gave a good explanation why it was out to lunch...

Paul,

I think you are confusing what AFM said and attributing it to Stacy. Stewart didn't expand on why the Euro would be wrong in the 4am disco.

AFM posted that from a call with Stewart....he expands on why the EURO has been so MX biased...its not from a Disco...

This quote?

As far as the Euro is concerned...one only has to read my posts to understand that I am as big a EURO pimp as the next guy...but what none of us EURO pimps want to seem to talk about is this FACT: The EURO runs have consistently moved the 500 mb feature inland but maintained a sfc feature near the coast. The 12Z run moves the 500Mb low inland south of BRO but keeps the sfc low right at the coast for 4 days...

And that just aint right. Something is NOT right with what it is seeing.